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USF

South Florida 17 at Cincinnati 34

CIN
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 24, 2014 · Paul Brown Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:08 · Mattias Ciabatti punt for 52 yds , Shaq Washington returns for 46 yds to the SFla 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Home team on offense+0.8Pregame prior+18.7Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:57: Gunner Kiel run for 17 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +5.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:56: Munchie Legaux run for 9 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +3.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:02: Steven Bench pass complete to Rodney Adams for 67 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK) — USF win probability +3.5 pts (now 5%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:55: Mike Boone run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:19: Steven Bench pass complete to Andre Davis for 38 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK) — USF win probability +3.8 pts (now 5%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:08USF 4th & 4 at USF 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:23CIN 4th & 2 at USF 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    76.1%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:41CIN 4th & 3 at USF 3, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.2%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:17USF 4th & 16 at USF 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:21USF 4th & 8 at CIN 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:10CIN 4th & 13 at USF 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    75.3%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:37USF 4th & 2 at USF 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:20USF 4th & 25 at USF 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:07CIN 4th & 8 at USF 42, up 14
    Close callPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    83.4%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:17CIN 4th & 8 at USF 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:44CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 47, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:59USF 4th & 5 at USF 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:21CIN 4th & 15 at CIN 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:48USF 4th & 14 at USF 15, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:39USF 4th & 17 at USF 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:45CIN 4th & 1 at USF 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:15CIN 4th & 1 at USF 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:05CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:57CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:56CIN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:02USF Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:55CIN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:19USF Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1INT
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:3130% → 30%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
70.3%
Marlon Mack run for 14 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
70.2%
Mike White pass intercepted Howard Wilder return for no gain to the Cincy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 2:1370% → 71%
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
70.2%
Rod Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+5
70.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 5 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+12
70.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 12 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
70.1%
Gunner Kiel run for 6 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
70.2%
Rod Moore run for 6 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
70.2%
Kiel, Gunner pass incomplete to McKay, Mekale, PENALTY SOUFLA pass interference (Dunkley, Chris) 15 yards to the SOUFLA38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
71.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 38 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5229% → 29%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
70.8%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 24Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
70.9%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 24Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
71.1%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 7 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+46
71.2%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 52 yds , Shaq Washington returns for 46 yds to the SFla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:2072% → 72%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
71.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+8
71.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 8 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
71.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+9
71.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 9 yds to the SFla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
71.9%
Kiel, Gunner pass incomplete to Moore, Chris, PENALTY SOUFLA pass interference (Robbins, Lamar) 15 yards to the SOUFLA5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
71.9%
Gunner Kiel run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 7Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
72.1%
Rod Moore run for 4 yds to the SFla 3Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
71.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q1 7:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
71.8%
Andrew Gantz 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 3:1029% → 27%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
71.5%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+1
71.4%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+7
71.7%
Mike White pass complete to Kennard Swanson for 7 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
71.5%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-15
71.4%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Brynjar Gudmundsson) to the SFla 23Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 23
OWN 23
0
72.0%
Mike White pass incomplete to Marlon MackSimilar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 23
OWN 23
+7
72.3%
Mike White pass complete to Marlon Mack for 7 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
72.6%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 46 yds, downed at the Cincy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:4773% → 74%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
72.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 4 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+28
73.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 28 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-16
73.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards to the Cincy 40 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SFla Demetrius HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7FG
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:5328% → 28%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
71.7%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+3
71.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+8
72.1%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 8 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
71.4%
Mike White pass incomplete to Deonte WelchSimilar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
71.6%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
72.3%
Mike White pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+44
71.6%
Marvin Kloss 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:0073% → 72%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
72.5%
Rod Moore run for 6 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
73.2%
Rod Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+7
73.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 7 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
73.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 8 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+6
73.9%
Rod Moore run for 6 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
74.0%
Gunner Kiel run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 13
OPP 44
0
73.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Rod MooreSimilar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 13
OPP 44
0
73.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 13
OPP 44
0
72.0%
John Lloyd punt for 36 yds, downed at the SFla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:2727% → 26%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
72.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 9Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+8
72.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 8 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+2
73.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the SFla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
72.6%
Mike White pass complete to Kennard Swanson for 9 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 1
OWN 28
0
72.1%
Mike White pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 1
OWN 28
-1
72.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 27 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SFla Quinterrius EatmonSimilar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
73.9%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 46 yds , Shaq Washington returns for no gain to the Cincy 27 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Tashon Whitehurst) to the Cincy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:3375% → 81%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
74.7%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+26
75.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 26 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
75.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 10 yds to the SFla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
76.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
81.4%
Gunner Kiel run for 17 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:2220% → 18%
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
79.9%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+17
80.1%
Marlon Mack run for 17 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
79.7%
Mike White pass complete to Sean Price for 15 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
79.2%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 3 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
79.4%
Mike White pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 7
OPP 44
-11
80.7%
Mike White run for a loss of 11 yards to the SFla 38 Mike White fumbled, recovered by SFla Darrell WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 25
OWN 38
0
82.5%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 28 yds, downed at the Cincy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:0683% → 83%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+22
82.7%
Mike Boone run for 22 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
83.6%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
83.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
83.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
82.9%
John Lloyd punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.4%
Mike White pass intercepted Linden Stephens return for no gain to the Cincy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3784% → 84%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
84.0%
Kiel, Gunner pass incomplete to Washington, Shaq, PENALTY SOUFLA player disqualification (Dunkley, Chris) 15 yards to the SOUFLA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
84.5%
Rod Moore run for 5 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-10
84.8%
Moore, Rod rush for 18 yards to the SOUFLA26, PENALTY CINCINNATI holding (Ehinger, Parker) 10 yards to the CINCINNATI46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+7
84.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 7 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
85.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 8
OPP 47
+1
84.3%
John Lloyd punt for 38 yds , Hassan Childs returns for 1 yd to the SFla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:4317% → 17%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
83.5%
Mike White pass complete to Mike McFarland for 8 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+11
83.5%
Mike White pass complete to Marlon Mack for 11 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
83.6%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 12 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
83.9%
Mike White pass complete to Mike McFarland for 5 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-2
83.2%
Mike White sacked by Terrell Hartsfield for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 44 Mike White fumbled, forced by Terrell Hartsfield, recovered by Cincy Jeff Luc , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 38 yds · 0:1586% → 88%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+34
85.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 34 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
86.4%
Gunner Kiel run for 2 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
85.5%
Shaq Washington run for 2 yds to the SFla 6Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
87.6%
Andrew Gantz 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17FUMBLE
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:3687% → 88%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
86.7%
Rod Moore run for 1 yd to the Cincy 8Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+3
86.8%
Rod Moore run for 3 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+8
86.3%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Max Morrison for 8 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
87.5%
Rod Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 12 Rod Moore fumbled, forced by Nigel Harris, recovered by SFla Nigel HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
85.4%
TEAM run for no gain to the Cincy 13 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Cincy Jeff LucSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:1988% → 90%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
87.5%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Mekale McKay for 10 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
87.7%
Mike Boone run for 15 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
88.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Parker Ehinger) to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+4
88.7%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+10
88.9%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Shaq Washington for 10 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
90.6%
Munchie Legaux run for no gain to the Cincy 47Similar
Q3 10:44
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
90.2%
John Lloyd punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Hassan Childs at the SFla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:4011% → 10%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
89.0%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+9
89.5%
Steven Bench pass complete to Andre Davis for 9 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
88.9%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
89.0%
Steven Bench pass complete to Rodney Adams for 1 yd to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
89.4%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q3 7:59
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
89.8%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:3292% → 93%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
92.1%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
92.3%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+10
92.3%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Alex Chisum for 10 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
92.7%
Munchie Legaux pass incomplete, broken up by Derrick CallowaySimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+13
92.6%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Max Morrison for 13 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
93.1%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
93.3%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Johnny Holton for no gain to the SFla 46Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-10
93.4%
Munchie Legaux sacked by Josh Black for a loss of 10 yards to the Cincy 44Similar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 15
OWN 44
0
92.5%
John Lloyd punt for 37 yds, downed at the SFla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:277% → 7%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
92.7%
Steven Bench run for 2 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
93.0%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 8
OWN 21
-5
93.2%
Steven Bench run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 15 Steven Bench fumbled, recovered by SFla Steven BenchSimilar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 14
OWN 15
0
93.4%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Johnny Holton at the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:4694% → 99%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
93.8%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Shaq Washington for 6 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
94.3%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
94.4%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+9
94.4%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Shaq Washington for 9 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
94.6%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Chris Moore for 18 yds to the SFla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
94.7%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Max Morrison for 8 yds to the SFla 14Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+5
94.8%
Munchie Legaux run for 5 yds to the SFla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.5%
Munchie Legaux run for 9 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:472% → 5%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.2%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
98.2%
Steven Bench pass complete to Mike McFarland for 4 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+67
94.7%
Steven Bench pass complete to Rodney Adams for 67 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5595% → 99%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+63
95.4%
Mike Boone run for 63 yds to the SFla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
96.1%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Max Morrison for 5 yds to the SFla 7Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
98.8%
Mike Boone run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26TD
3 plays · 46 yds · 0:202% → 5%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
98.5%
Steven Bench pass complete to Deonte Welch for 8 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+38
94.7%
Steven Bench pass complete to Andre Davis for 38 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 27FUMBLE
7 plays · 74 yds · 3:0996% → 97%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.0%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
96.1%
Mike Boone run for 19 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
96.5%
Munchie Legaux run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 7
50
+2
96.5%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+8
96.6%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Shaq Washington for 8 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+39
96.7%
Mike Boone run for 39 yds Mike Boone fumbled, forced by Marlon Pope, recovered by SFlaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 1:184% → 3%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
96.4%
Steven Bench pass complete to Mike McFarland for 8 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
96.2%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Mike McFarlandSimilar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
96.3%
Steven Bench pass complete to Mike McFarland for 4 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
96.3%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Deonte Welch, broken up by Andre JonesSimilar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
96.4%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Deonte Welch, broken up by Kevin BrownSimilar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+8
96.7%
Steven Bench pass complete to Marlon Mack for 8 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 2
OWN 40
-15
96.4%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Andre Davis) to the SFla 25Similar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 17
OWN 25
0
96.8%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 29END OF GAME
16 plays · 45 yds · 7:3097% → 99%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
96.9%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
97.2%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+12
97.3%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Chris Moore for 12 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
97.7%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+3
97.7%
Chad Banschbach run for 3 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+4
97.9%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Nate Cole for 4 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+3
98.0%
Chad Banschbach run for 3 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
98.4%
Chad Banschbach run for 7 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 3
OPP 22
-1
98.5%
Munchie Legaux run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 23Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+3
98.7%
Chad Banschbach run for 3 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+2
98.8%
Chad Banschbach run for 2 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
99.0%
Chad Banschbach run for 3 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+2
99.1%
Chad Banschbach run for 2 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 5
OPP 13
-2
99.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:57
Gunner Kiel run for 17 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)
+5.3
TD · Q4 12:19
Steven Bench pass complete to Andre Davis for 38 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)
-3.8
TD · Q4 14:56
Munchie Legaux run for 9 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)
+3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com