Baylor

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2063rd
  Defense+0.0584th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense44.8%64th
  Defense37.0%91st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3374th
  Defense+1.3813th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2384th
  Defense+0.0664th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1834th
  Defense+0.1182nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.0%64th
  Defense43.1%88th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.0%60th
  Defense25.9%90th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2574th
  Defense2.7681st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense16.6%50th
  Defense16.7%45th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.9%66th
  Defense19.9%92nd

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Baylor allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   TXST
2. W
   TXSO
3. W
   KU
4. W
   ISU
5. L
   OKST
6. W
   WVU
7. W
   BYU
8. W
   TEX
9. L
   TCU
10. W
    OU
11. W
    KSU
12. W
    TTU
13. W
    OKST
14. W
    MISS

Bars above the line: better than expected for Baylor.

Players, 2021

1. Gerry BohanonQB294 plays · +0.245 pts/play · 68th of 219 QBs
   1.35WAR0.77 to 2.02
2. Abram SmithRB242 plays · +0.190 pts/play · 16th of 387 RBs
   0.86WAR0.57 to 1.13
3. Blake ShapenQB104 plays · +0.270 pts/play · 126th of 219 QBs
   0.53WAR0.33 to 0.72
4. Trestan EbnerRB156 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 143rd of 387 RBs
   0.32WAR0.19 to 0.46
5. Tyquan ThorntonWR81 plays · +0.181 pts/play · 26th of 474 WRs
   0.27WAR0.18 to 0.38
6. R.J. Sneed IIWR51 plays · +0.182 pts/play · 94th of 474 WRs
   0.17WAR0.11 to 0.24
7. Drew EstradaWR50 plays · +0.127 pts/play · 189th of 474 WRs
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.16
8. Issac PowerP49 plays · +0.129 pts/play · 45th of 101 punters
   0.12WAR−0.01 to 0.25

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Baylor's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  66166141st of 130Roster talent: 661, 41st of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  19719744th of 130Recruiting: 197, 44th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  62%62%88th of 128Returning production: 62%, 88th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +15.6+15.615th of 130SP+ rating: +15.6, 15th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Baylor's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.07 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at MISSQ2 4:59 4th & 6 at MISS 42, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
2. at OKSTQ2 11:07 4th & 2 at BAY 39, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
3. at OKSTQ4 5:32 4th & 4 at BAY 12, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
4. vs WVUQ2 0:21 4th & 4 at WVU 45, up 18Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.6 pts
5. at TXSTQ4 3:23 4th & 17 at TXST 35, up 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.6 pts
6. at OKSTQ1 5:40 4th & 1 at BAY 30, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
7. at MISSQ2 1:31 4th & 9 at MISS 38, up 7Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.5 pts
8. vs TEXQ3 5:51 4th & 5 at TEX 20, down 11Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

3rd of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Baylor's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   TXST
2. W

   TXSO
3. W

   KU
4. W

   ISU
5. L

   OKST
6. W

   WVU
7. W

   BYU
8. W

   TEX
9. L

   TCU
10. W

    OU
11. W

    KSU
12. W

    TTU
13. W

    OKST
14. W

    MISS

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Baylor's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+3.53
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock+0.15
• Timeouts+0.02
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.29

Game by game

• TXSTW 29-20 at TXST84% → 89%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +28, Clock +2
• TXSOW 66-7 vs TXSO99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +1
• KUW 45-7 at KU85% → 100%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +20, Clock +1
• ISUW 31-29 vs ISU30% → 95%Before kickoff −20 · On the field +65: Scoreboard +40, Timeouts +3
• OKSTL 14-24 at OKST40% → 3%Before kickoff −10 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −34, Timeouts −2
• WVUW 45-20 vs WVU50% → 99%Before kickoff 0 · On the field +49: Scoreboard +41, Clock +2
• BYUW 38-24 vs BYU67% → 99%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +33, Timeouts +1
• TEXW 31-24 vs TEX57% → 93%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +29, Possession & field position +2
• TCUL 28-30 at TCU67% → 6%Before kickoff +17 · On the field −61: Scoreboard −39, Timeouts −3
• OUW 27-14 vs OU36% → 99%Before kickoff −14 · On the field +63: Scoreboard +51
• KSUW 20-10 at KSU41% → 98%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +56, Clock +3
• TTUW 27-24 vs TTU83% → 81%Before kickoff +33 · On the field −2: Scoreboard +15, Possession & field position −2
• OKSTW 21-16 at OKST31% → 96%Before kickoff −19 · On the field +66: Scoreboard +58, Clock +3
• MISSW 21-7 at MISS42% → 98%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +56: Scoreboard +54, Clock +3

Points of win probability, from Baylor's side.

Closest call

BAY 36-35 UCF (2023) - Baylor dropped to a 0.7% win probability before pulling it out.