2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadTXSO aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreTXSO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:40 · Isaiah Hankins 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:12: Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 48 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:44: Gerry Bohanon run for 7 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:25: Gerry Bohanon run for 10 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:46: Abram Smith run for 35 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:00: Kevin Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Richard Garcia III KICK) — TXSO win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: TXSO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TXSO made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 11:48BAY 4th & 3 at TXSO 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.0%52% to convertField goal98.9%−0.227% to makePunt99.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:41BAY 4th & 3 at TXSO 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.9%51% to convertField goal98.8%−<0.175% to makePunt98.4%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:20TXSO 4th & 18 at TXSO 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q1 6:28TXSO 4th & 8 at TXSO 46, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.1%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q1 0:25TXSO 4th & 1 at BAY 39, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.0%70% to convertField goal0.8%−0.236% to makePunt0.8%−0.2average punt
- Q2 13:12BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 47, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 8:53TXSO 4th & 10 at TXSO 20, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.227% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q2 2:43TXSO 4th & 5 at TXSO 44, down 35Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 10:44TXSO 4th & 9 at TXSO 45, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 4:42TXSO 4th & 16 at BAY 36, down 49Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−0.116% to convertField goal0.1%42% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 1:40BAY 4th & 17 at TXSO 19, up 49Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.213% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%77% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 5:32TXSO 4th & 5 at TXSO 30, down 59Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TXSO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:41BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:12BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:44BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:25BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:46BAY Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:05BAY Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:24BAY Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:00TXSO Touchdown, down 53 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBAYDrive 1TD16 plays · 93 yds · 4:3099% → 99%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
99.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for 9 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+11
99.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 11 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
99.4%
(13:19) Ebner,Trestan rush for 51 yards gain to the TSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 13:19 PENALTY BAY Holding (Gall,Jacob) 10 yards from BAY49 to BAY39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
99.4%
(13:19) Ebner,Trestan rush for 51 yards gain to the TSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 13:19 PENALTY BAY Holding (Gall,Jacob) 10 yards from BAY49 to BAY39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+2
99.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 2 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 18
OWN 41
+15
99.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 15 yds to the TexSo 44Similar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+7
99.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Abram Smith for 7 yds to the TexSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 2PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:071% → 1%
Q1 8:20
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
99.2%
Sawyer Evans punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the TexSo 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3TD1 play · 48 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
99.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 48 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 4PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 1:371% → 1%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TexSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 2
OPP 48
-6
99.2%
Jalen Brown sacked by Matt Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSo 46Similar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
99.2%
Sawyer Evans punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD5 plays · 85 yds · 2:2399% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 6DOWNS9 plays · 33 yds · 2:421% → 1%
BAYDrive 7TD10 plays · 60 yds · 4:4499% → 100%
TXSODrive 8PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:010% → 0%
BAYDrive 9TD6 plays · 82 yds · 2:59100% → 100%
TXSODrive 10PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:450% → 0%
BAYDrive 11TD10 plays · 80 yds · 2:13100% → 100%
Q2 1:46
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+26
99.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 26 yds to the TexSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
99.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for 7 yds to the TexSo 29Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+11
99.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 11 yds to the TexSo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 18 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 12PUNT11 plays · 20 yds · 4:040% → 0%
Q3 13:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+18
99.8%
Jalen Brown pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 18 yds to the TexSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-9
99.8%
Jeff Proctor run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line TEXAS SOUTHERN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jeff Proctor) to the TexSo 35Similar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 19
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Jalen Brown pass complete to Jacorey Howard for no gain to the TexSo 35Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 23
OWN 31
+19
99.8%
Jalen Brown pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 19 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:44
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Sawyer Evans punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD8 plays · 86 yds · 3:20100% → 100%
TXSODrive 14DOWNS12 plays · 39 yds · 2:420% → 0%
Q3 7:24
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+34
99.9%
Jalen Brown pass complete to Ke'Lenn Davis for 34 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+11
99.9%
Jalen Brown pass complete to Ke'Lenn Davis for 11 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
99.9%
Jalen Brown pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 7 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 3
OPP 23
-13
99.9%
TEXAS SOUTHERN Penalty, Intentional Grounding. (-13 Yards) to the Bayl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15FG9 plays · 45 yds · 3:02100% → 100%
Q3 4:42
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+41
99.9%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 41 yds to the TexSo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
99.9%
Jacob Zeno run for no gain to the TexSo 25 for a 1ST down TEXAS SOUTHERN Penalty, Targeting (13 Yards) to the TexSo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 9
OPP 11
-8
99.9%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Isaiah Hamilton for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSo 19Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 9
OPP 11
-8
99.9%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Isaiah Hamilton for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 16FUMBLE12 plays · 72 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q3 1:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
100.0%
Andrew Body pass complete to C'ing Blanton for 13 yds to the TexSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 17TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:340% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 18PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:140% → 0%
Q4 5:32
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Sawyer Evans punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19END OF 4TH QUARTER10 plays · 63 yds · 5:32100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD5 plays · 75 yds · 6:46100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
100.0%
Taye McWilliams run for 44 yds to the BAYLOR 31 for a 1ST down TEXAS SOUTHERN Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Jonathan Giles) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
100.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 7 yds to the TexSo 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:25
Gerry Bohanon run for 10 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 3:44
Gerry Bohanon run for 7 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q1 8:12
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 48 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
+0.1