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ISU

Iowa State 29 at Baylor 31

BAY
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:31 · Issac Power punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior−3.2Home team on offense+9.5Garbage-time factor+5.4Score differential+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:37: Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for 33 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +16.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:59: Trestan Ebner 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Isaiah Hankins Kick) — BAY win probability +20.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:39: B. Hall run for 2 yds for a TD, (C. Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +22.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 5:36: Isaiah Hankins 34 Yd Field Goal — BAY win probability +8.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:24: B. Purdy pass,to B. Hall for 16 yds for a TD, (Two-point Conversion failed ) — ISU win probability +19.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ISU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00ISU 4th & 2 at BAY 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    66.4%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:15ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:53ISU 4th & 1 at BAY 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    54.8%−1.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:10ISU 4th & 6 at BAY 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    47.4%−4.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:10BAY 4th & 1 at ISU 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    43.0%−1.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:38ISU 4th & 11 at BAY 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:59BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 27, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−3.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00BAY 4th & 2 at ISU 34, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    61.0%−2.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    60.7%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:13ISU 4th & 6 at BAY 22, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−11.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:18ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 33, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:47BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 40, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:59BAY 4th & 21 at BAY 14, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−9.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:31BAY 4th & 14 at BAY 29, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−5.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:40ISU 4th & 9 at ISU 16, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:36BAY 4th & 11 at ISU 17, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−2.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−13.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:36ISU 4th & 1 at BAY 34, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%−4.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−7.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:26ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:34BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:53BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:37BAY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:59BAY Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:39ISU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:24ISU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    17.1%−7.0
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:3470% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.1%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the IowSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
30.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 12 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+30
30.1%
Breece Hall run for 30 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
30.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 1 yd to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
30.1%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+7
30.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 7 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+9
30.1%
Breece Hall run for 9 yds to the Bayl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
30.1%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the Bayl 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+15
30.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 15 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.2%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5231% → 36%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
30.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
31.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
30.9%
Gerry Bohanon run for 4 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
31.0%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 7 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
31.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
50
+12
31.3%
Abram Smith run for 12 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+30
31.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 30 yds R.J. Sneed fumbled, forced by Anthony Johnson Jr., recovered by Bayl Tyquan Thornton for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
35.5%
Gerry Bohanon run for 8 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:1966% → 64%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.1%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
34.0%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
34.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 5 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
33.9%
Brock Purdy sacked by Gabe Hall for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 34Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+6
34.2%
Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
33.8%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Xavier HutchinsonSimilar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+16
35.6%
Corey Dunn punt blocked by Al Walcott, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 44 blocked by Al WalcottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:2237% → 44%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
37.0%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
36.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Ben SimsSimilar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+20
35.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 20 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
37.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 11 yds to the IowSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
39.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+21
43.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 21 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:4358% → 59%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
42.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 19 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jalen Pitre) to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
40.4%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
40.2%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Breece HallSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+5
40.6%
Jirehl Brock run for 5 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+5
41.0%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
39.5%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+8
40.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 8 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
40.3%
Brock Purdy run for no gain to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
41.0%
Andrew Mevis 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3342% → 58%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
41.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 11 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
42.2%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
43.0%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Abram Smith for 1 yd to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+14
42.3%
Abram Smith run for 14 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
43.6%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+4
43.2%
Gerry Bohanon run for 4 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+6
43.0%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 6 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+2
42.2%
Gerry Bohanon run for 2 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
58.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for 33 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:5945% → 44%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
55.1%
Breece Hall run for 14 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
53.8%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+15
53.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Matt Jones) to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
52.9%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+15
53.6%
Purdy,Brock pass incomplete to Hutchinson,Xavier QB hurried by Franklin,TJ PENALTY BAY Roughing The Passer (Franklin,TJ) 15 yards from BAY44 to BAY29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
51.5%
Brock Purdy run for 1 yd to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+3
51.9%
Brock Purdy run for 3 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 6
OPP 25
-5
52.7%
PENALTY ISU False Start (Simmons,Darrell) 5 yards from BAY25 to BAY30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 11
OPP 30
0
58.2%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+47
56.4%
Andrew Mevis 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 0:3958% → 58%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
57.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
57.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-10
57.3%
Bohanon,Gerry rush for 16 yards gain to the BAY47, out of bounds PENALTY BAY Holding (Byers,Gavin) 10 yards from BAY31 to BAY21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 19
OWN 21
+6
56.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 6 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
57.6%
Issac Power punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9FG
8 plays · 65 yds · 0:5540% → 44%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+21
60.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 21 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
59.4%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Xavier HutchinsonSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
59.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 8 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+17
57.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 17 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
57.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to for 4 yds Charlie Kolar fumbled, forced by Will Williams, recovered by IowSt for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
55.0%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Tarique MiltonSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+38
55.6%
Andrew Mevis 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
62.4%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11FUMBLE
11 plays · 54 yds · 3:3461% → 67%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
61.2%
PENALTY BAY False Start (Gall,Jacob) 5 yards from BAY23 to BAY18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+10
60.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for 10 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+3
61.3%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+27
60.7%
Gerry Bohanon run for 27 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
63.6%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Josh FleeksSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
63.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+8
62.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 8 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+8
61.1%
Gerry Bohanon run for 8 yds to the IowSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
63.8%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
67.3%
Gerry Bohanon run for no gain to the IowSt 23 Gerry Bohanon fumbled, forced by Isheem Young, recovered by IowSt Kym-Mani KingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 4:1338% → 46%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
62.5%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the IowSt 22Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+1
62.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 1 yd to the IowSt 21Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+20
64.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 20 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
60.9%
Breece Hall run for 13 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+20
59.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 20 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
57.0%
Hall,Breece rush for 5 yards gain to the BAY21 (McVea,Jairon) PENALTY BAY Offside (Ika,Siaki) 5 yards from BAY26 to BAY21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 5
OPP 21
+1
57.0%
Jirehl Brock run for 1 yd to the Bayl 22Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
57.0%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
58.8%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Xavier HutchinsonSimilar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+39
53.9%
Andrew Mevis 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4124% → 23%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.1%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.2%
Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
75.2%
Brock Purdy run for 2 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q3 5:18
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+6
77.2%
Corey Dunn punt for 49 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for 6 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:3179% → 82%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
78.7%
Craig Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+4
79.0%
Abram Smith run for 4 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
78.8%
Abram Smith run for 6 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
79.7%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+1
78.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+3
81.5%
Issac Power punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 15 , Jaylin Noel returns for 3 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 2:0820% → 47%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+27
80.3%
Breece Hall run for 42 yds to the BAYLOR 43 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Corey Dunn) to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+24
78.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 24 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
75.8%
Jirehl Brock run for 2 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+30
75.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 30 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.8%
B. Hall run for 2 yds for a TD, (C. Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:4064% → 61%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.5%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
64.3%
Gerry Bohanon sacked by Eyioma Uwazurike for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-10
61.7%
Gerry Bohanon sacked by Will McDonald IV for a loss of 10 yards to the Bayl 14 Gerry Bohanon fumbled, recovered by Bayl Grant Miller , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 13:59
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+5
61.3%
Issac Power punt for 56 yds , Jaylin Noel returns for 5 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17INT
4 plays · 43 yds · 2:0440% → 45%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
60.3%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+34
57.4%
Breece Hall run for 34 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
53.7%
Jirehl Brock run for 4 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
54.8%
Brock Purdy pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:2469% → 70%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
69.3%
Abram Smith run for 13 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
69.9%
Abram Smith run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 14
OWN 29
0
68.8%
Craig Williams run for no gain to the Bayl 29Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 14
OWN 29
0
67.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Gerry Bohanon for no gain to the Bayl 29Similar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 14
OWN 29
0
69.7%
Issac Power punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5135% → 29%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
65.1%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Joe ScatesSimilar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
65.5%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 6
OWN 19
-3
66.9%
Brock Purdy sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 16Similar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 9
OWN 16
+41
71.5%
Corey Dunn punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 16 , Trestan Ebner returns for 41 yds to the IowSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:0484% → 91%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
83.9%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the IowSt 15Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+2
83.9%
Gerry Bohanon run for 2 yds to the IowSt 17Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 11
OPP 17
0
82.2%
Craig Williams run for no gain to the IowSt 17Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+34
91.0%
Isaiah Hankins 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 5:1212% → 29%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
87.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 21 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
84.7%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
84.0%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
83.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 2 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
83.8%
Jirehl Brock run for 2 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
84.0%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+7
84.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 7 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+2
85.3%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
82.3%
Brock Purdy run for 10 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
81.8%
Jirehl Brock run for 3 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+1
80.0%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the Bayl 18Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+7
88.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 7 yds to the Bayl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
87.0%
Purdy,Brock pass complete to Kolar,Charlie for 11 yards to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:31 PENALTY ISU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Schweiger,Derek) 5 yards from BAY11 to BAY16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+16
67.8%
B. Purdy pass,to B. Hall for 16 yds for a TD, (Two-point Conversion failed )Similar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
77.4%
PENALTY BAY UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Pitre,Jalen) BAY UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct declined 15 yards from ISU35 to ISU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
50
+5
71.5%
Mevis,Andrew onside kickoff 13 yards to the BAY37, End Of Play PENALTY BAY Offside (Sims,Ben) 5 yards from ISU50 to BAY45. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
95.0%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:39
B. Hall run for 2 yds for a TD, (C. Assalley KICK)
-22.9
TD · Q3 6:59
Trestan Ebner 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Isaiah Hankins Kick)
+20.9
TD · Q4 0:24
B. Purdy pass,to B. Hall for 16 yds for a TD, (Two-point Conversion failed )
-19.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com