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BAY

Baylor 29 at Texas State 20

TXST
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:51 · Issac Power punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior−8.8Home team on offense−21.8Score differential−9.2Garbage-time factor−9.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:36: Abram Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — TXST win probability +5.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:50: Isaiah Hankins 43 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +4.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:21: Abram Smith run for 13 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +10.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:35: Isaiah Hankins 26 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +4.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:19: Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +20.6 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 14:16TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:53TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:02TXST 4th & 3 at BAY 3, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.6%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:02BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    76.3%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:19BAY 4th & 12 at TXST 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:06TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:51BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:49TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−3.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:50BAY 4th & 9 at TXST 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−7.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:50TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:45TXST 4th & 7 at BAY 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−4.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:51BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 43, up 11
    Close callPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:35BAY 4th & 7 at TXST 9, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−6.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:23BAY 4th & 17 at TXST 35, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.1%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:15BAY 4th & 11 at TXST 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 4:21BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 1:19TXST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%−2.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4416% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.0%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
16.0%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Calvin HillSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
16.0%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Chandler SpeightsSimilar
Q1 14:16
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
16.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 46 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
16.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 18 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
16.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+9
16.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 9 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
16.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
16.8%
Brady McBride pass intercepted for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
17.2%
Brady McBride pass intercepted for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4FG
18 plays · 72 yds · 5:5117% → 20%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.2%
Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Seth Caillouet for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
17.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 4 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
17.1%
Caleb Twyford run for 4 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
17.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Seth Caillouet for 20 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
17.4%
Brady McBride run for 1 yd to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+1
17.4%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
18.8%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q1 8:28
4TH & 10
OPP 42
+15
18.4%
O'Kelly,Seamus punt 40 yards to the BAY02 PENALTY BAY Roughing The Kicker (Jones,Matt) 15 yards from BAY42 to BAY27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
19.1%
McBride,Brady pass incomplete to Ortega-Jones,Julian QB hurried by Hall,Gabe PENALTY BAY Holding (Texada,Raleigh) 10 yards from BAY27 to BAY17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
19.1%
Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+4
19.1%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the Bayl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
19.1%
pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q1 8:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
19.1%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the Bayl 3Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
19.0%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q1 6:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
19.7%
Seth Keller 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5FG
18 plays · 46 yds · 8:4381% → 80%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.4%
Monaray Baldwin run for no gain to the Bayl 25Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.5%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
19.6%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 6 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
19.5%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
19.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
19.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 9 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+7
19.0%
Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
18.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 5 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+1
18.8%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+6
19.0%
Abram Smith run for 6 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
20.4%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
20.4%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+10
20.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 10 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+5
20.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
20.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Josh FleeksSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
20.4%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+40
19.6%
Isaiah Hankins 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 5:3820% → 23%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
20.0%
Caleb Twyford run for 3 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+8
20.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 8 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
20.2%
Caleb Twyford run for 4 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-10
20.9%
Twyford,Caleb rush for 8 yards gain to the TXS46 (Doyle,Dillon) PENALTY TXS Holding (Cooper,Dalton) 10 yards from TXS38 to TXS28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+12
19.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 12 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+5
20.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 5 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
21.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
21.1%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+23
20.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 23 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
22.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 9 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+7
22.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 7 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
23.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 12 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:0580% → 77%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
19.8%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
20.0%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 11 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
19.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 19 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
18.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+10
18.5%
Abram Smith run for 10 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
18.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 9 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+6
18.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 6 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
18.2%
Abram Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
18.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+7
18.4%
Trestan Ebner run for 7 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+7
18.4%
Trestan Ebner run for 7 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
17.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the TexSt 7Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
17.9%
Gerry Bohanon run for 4 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
23.2%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · -5 yds · 0:3027% → 24%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
27.4%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
27.3%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
27.3%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
24.6%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 10
OWN 35
-5
24.5%
PENALTY TXS False Start (Ortega-Jones,Julian) 5 yards from TXS35 to TXS30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
24.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
26.7%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 14Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
26.7%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0474% → 71%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
26.4%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
26.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
28.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Ben SimsSimilar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
29.2%
Issac Power punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 2:0230% → 28%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
29.6%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-10
29.9%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+6
28.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 6 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 18
OWN 28
+5
27.7%
PENALTY BAY Offside (Pitre,Jalen) 5 yards from TXS28 to TXS33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
28.0%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
28.1%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:5974% → 78%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
26.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+17
26.7%
Trestan Ebner run for 17 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
25.7%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 15 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
25.2%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+3
25.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Abram Smith for 3 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+1
26.0%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+43
21.9%
Isaiah Hankins 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:0024% → 24%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.1%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
24.7%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
24.1%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 6:50
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
24.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 2:2978% → 92%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
21.7%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 13 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
20.4%
Trestan Ebner run for 16 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
19.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 14 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
19.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drake Dabney for 14 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
8.5%
Abram Smith run for 13 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 3:3612% → 17%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
12.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 12 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
12.6%
Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
12.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 2 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+21
12.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 21 yds to the TEXSTATE 40 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (R.J. Sneed) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
13.9%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the Bayl 39Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+15
13.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 15 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
14.6%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
14.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 4 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+1
14.1%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
17.4%
Seth Keller 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:0985% → 86%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
14.7%
Abram Smith run for 8 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+8
14.3%
Abram Smith run for 8 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
14.1%
Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
13.7%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+2
13.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
13.9%
Issac Power punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:3315% → 14%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
14.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 1 yd to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 11
OWN 16
0
13.7%
Brady McBride pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 11
OWN 16
0
13.7%
Brady McBride pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:4388% → 95%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
11.8%
Trestan Ebner run for 15 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
11.7%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+5
11.7%
Gerry Bohanon run for 5 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+6
9.4%
Trestan Ebner run for 6 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
4.8%
Isaiah Hankins 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19INT
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:518% → 5%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
7.8%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
8.4%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+4
8.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 4 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-8
8.4%
Brady McBride sacked by Terrel Bernard for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 18
OWN 37
0
7.4%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 18
OWN 37
0
5.3%
Brady McBride pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:2196% → 98%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
4.2%
PENALTY BAY UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (McVea,Jairon) 9 yards from BAY19 to BAY10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+2
4.3%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 17
OWN 12
+34
4.3%
Abram Smith run for 34 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+26
3.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 26 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
3.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
3.0%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 7
OPP 25
-10
3.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+6
3.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 6 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 17
OPP 35
0
2.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 2:043% → 24%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
2.9%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
2.9%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-JonesSimilar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
2.9%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Chandler Speights for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Terrel Bernard) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
50
+19
3.1%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 19 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
3.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 11 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
3.7%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 9 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+5
3.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 5 yds to the Bayl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
3.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the Bayl 7Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
3.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Raleigh Texada) to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
24.1%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · -1 yds · 1:0496% → 95%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
4.5%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+3
4.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 5
OPP 41
-5
4.2%
PENALTY BAY False Start (Shupp,Jackson) 5 yards from TXS41 to TXS46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+4
4.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 6
OPP 42
-5
4.9%
PENALTY BAY Delay Of Game 5 yards from TXS42 to TXS47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
5.1%
Issac Power punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23SF
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:1511% → 11%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
10.5%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Chandler SpeightsSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+10
11.3%
Brady McBride pass complete for a SAFETY to Chandler Speights for 10 yds for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:19
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
+20.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-11.3
TD · Q3 4:21
Abram Smith run for 13 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
-10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com