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BYU

BYU 24 at Baylor 38

BAY
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameTD+1.8BAY 99.4%Abram Smith 1 Yd Run (Isaiah HankinsKick)AWAY 17 - HOME 38 · Q4 3:55
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:55 · Abram Smith 1 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Home team on offense+32.7Pregame prior+1.1Score differential+22.9Garbage-time factor+14.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+6.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:17: Tyler Allgeier 1 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick) — BYU win probability +4.3 pts (now 40%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:36: Dillon Doyle 2 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick) — BAY win probability +7.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:18: Jaren Hall 56 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick) — BYU win probability +11.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 7:55: Dillon Doyle 2 Yd pass from Gerry Bohanon (Isaiah Hankins Kick) — BAY win probability +9.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:32: Abram Smith 7 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick) — BAY win probability +8.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 14:01BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:01BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:10BAY 4th & 6 at BYU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    65.3%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:55BAY 4th & 4 at BYU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    65.2%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:18BYU 4th & 21 at BYU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:11BAY 4th & 6 at BYU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:08BYU 4th & 13 at BAY 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:25BAY 4th & 1 at BYU 24, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.4%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−4.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:03BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:18BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.8%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:46BYU 4th & 16 at midfield, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:15BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:27BYU 4th & 2 at BAY 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%−1.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:28BYU 4th & 18 at BAY 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:55BAY 4th & 1 at BYU 1, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    95.7%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    93.2%−3.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5BYU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 12:17BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:54BAY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:36BAY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:18BYU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:55BAY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:32BAY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:55BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:51BYU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5467% → 67%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
67.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 6 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
67.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
67.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Drew EstradaSimilar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
67.0%
Issac Power punt for 53 yds, downed at the BYU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4333% → 33%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
67.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 5 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+2
67.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+1
66.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
67.0%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3INT
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0667% → 67%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
66.9%
Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+27
66.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for 27 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
67.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
67.1%
Abram Smith run for 4 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
67.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Abram SmithSimilar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 6
OPP 43
+20
66.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 20 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
67.4%
Abram Smith run for 11 yds to the BYU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
67.3%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+2
67.2%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+1
66.9%
Gerry Bohanon run for 1 yd to the BYU 6Similar
Q1 6:55
4TH & 4
OPP 6
0
66.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass intercepted, touchback. Payton Wilgar return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:3734% → 34%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
66.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Isaac Rex for 17 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-12
65.7%
Jaren Hall sacked by Jalen Pitre for a loss of 12 yards to the BYU 25Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 22
OWN 25
-4
66.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Lopini Katoa for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 21Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 26
OWN 21
+5
66.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 5 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 21
OWN 26
0
66.4%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:0766% → 67%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
66.0%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 12 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
66.7%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Abram Smith for 7 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+6
66.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 6 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
67.0%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 24 yds to the BYU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
67.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Ben SimsSimilar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
67.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+4
66.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 4 yds to the BYU 13Similar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
66.8%
Isaiah Hankins 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5433% → 40%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+52
66.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 52 yds to the Bayl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
64.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for no gain to the Bayl 21Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
64.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Isaac Rex for 3 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+12
65.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 12 yds to the Bayl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
64.3%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
64.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 5 yds to the Bayl 1Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.9%
Tyler Allgeier 1 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2362% → 68%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
61.8%
Trestan Ebner run for 10 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
61.8%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+14
63.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 14 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+31
63.5%
Abram Smith run for 31 yds to the BYU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
64.1%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the BYU 13Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+4
63.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+9
67.9%
Abram Smith 9 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8MISSED FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 1:4634% → 32%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
66.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 45 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
63.2%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Puka NacuaSimilar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
63.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 7
OPP 27
-6
64.5%
Jaren Hall sacked by Bryson Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 33Similar
Q2 7:08
4TH & 13
OPP 33
+50
67.7%
Jake Oldroyd 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 3:3268% → 78%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
68.0%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 9 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+23
69.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for 23 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
70.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 9 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 1
OPP 26
0
70.6%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Ben SimsSimilar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+6
69.8%
Abram Smith run for 6 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
70.7%
Abram Smith run for 12 yds to the BYU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
70.7%
Josh Fleeks run for 6 yds to the BYU 2Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.2%
Dillon Doyle 2 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10DOWNS
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:1078% → 79%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
77.6%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+4
78.3%
Abram Smith run for 4 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+14
78.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 14 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
79.8%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+7
80.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 7 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+3
79.8%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
78.8%
Gerry Bohanon run for no gain to the BYU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:2222% → 20%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
78.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 23Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+2
79.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+2
79.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
79.8%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
80.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4224% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
76.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 8 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
75.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
77.7%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Neil Pau'uSimilar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
77.9%
Puka Nacua run for 9 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
77.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for no gain to the BYU 44Similar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+56
65.3%
Jaren Hall 56 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 4:1867% → 84%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
67.2%
Abram Smith run for 11 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
67.6%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+7
67.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Abram Smith for 7 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+38
68.7%
Abram Smith run for 38 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
71.2%
Trestan Ebner run for 6 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 4
OPP 14
-2
71.8%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 16Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+9
70.6%
Gerry Bohanon run for 9 yds to the BYU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
71.9%
Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the BYU 2Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.1%
Dillon Doyle 2 Yd pass from Gerry Bohanon (Isaiah Hankins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:2618% → 20%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
82.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 47 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
79.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
79.4%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-9
80.5%
Jaren Hall sacked by TJ Franklin for a loss of 9 yards to the Bayl 33 Jaren Hall fumbled, forced by TJ Franklin, recovered by Bayl Jalen Pitre , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:5783% → 94%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
83.3%
Abram Smith run for 6 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+45
84.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 45 yds to the BYU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
85.4%
Abram Smith run for 9 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+7
94.3%
Abram Smith 7 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:468% → 7%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
92.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Isaac Rex for 20 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
92.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 11 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
92.3%
Hall, Jaren pass incomplete to Pau'u, Neil, PENALTY BYU holding (Allgeier, Tyler) 10 yards to the BYU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+4
92.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 16
50
0
92.9%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 16
50
0
93.3%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:46
4TH & 16
50
0
93.5%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3195% → 95%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
94.6%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
94.7%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+2
94.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 2 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 0:15
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+1
94.5%
Issac Power punt for 50 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 1 yd to the BYU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 4:476% → 5%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
94.1%
Jaren Hall sacked by Terrel Bernard for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+7
94.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Isaac Rex for 7 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+7
94.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 7 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
94.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Gunner Romney for 19 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
94.6%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Puka NacuaSimilar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
94.7%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+8
94.9%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 8 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+14
95.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Gunner Romney for 14 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
94.4%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-11
94.7%
Jaren Hall sacked by Dillon Doyle for a loss of 11 yards to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 21
OPP 34
+3
95.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 3 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 18
OPP 31
+48
94.6%
Jake Oldroyd 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
15 plays · 82 yds · 6:2895% → 99%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
95.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 6 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+5
95.9%
Drew Estrada run for 5 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
96.0%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+4
96.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+37
96.4%
Trestan Ebner run for 37 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
96.9%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+2
97.2%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+18
97.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 18 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
97.6%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the BYU 3Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
97.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for 2 yds to the BYU 1Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.8%
Abram Smith run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
Q4 3:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.4%
Abram Smith 1 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:040% → 2%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.8%
Jaren Hall run for 7 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 2 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+48
99.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Gunner Romney for 48 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
99.7%
Jaren Hall run for 4 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-5
99.7%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Campbell Barrington) to the Bayl 16Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 11
OPP 16
0
99.8%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Samson NacuaSimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+16
98.3%
Puka Nacua 16 Yd pass from Jaren Hall (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2299% → 99%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 11
OWN 47
-1
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 12
OWN 46
-1
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:18
Jaren Hall 56 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)
-11.6
TD · Q3 7:55
Dillon Doyle 2 Yd pass from Gerry Bohanon (Isaiah Hankins Kick)
+9.4
TD · Q3 4:32
Abram Smith 7 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)
+8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com