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TEX

Texas 24 at Baylor 31

BAY
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:51 · Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 14 yds to the Texas 6 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+23.0+11.50−11.5−23.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Home team on offense−11.5Pregame prior+2.4Garbage-time factor−5.2Score differential−6.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:49: B. Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (C. Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +14.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:45: G. Bohanon run for 6 yds for a TD, (I. Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +19.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 12:48: B. Sims run for 1 yd for a TD, (I. Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +25.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:59: A. Smith run for 32 yds for a TD, (I. Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +15.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:40: Cameron Dicker 27 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +5.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 8TEX made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 5:29TEX 4th & 19 at TEX 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:29TEX 4th & 19 at TEX 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:56BAY 4th & 5 at TEX 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:53BAY 4th & 7 at TEX 33, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.7%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:53BAY 4th & 7 at TEX 33, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.7%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:21TEX 4th & 4 at BAY 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    44.2%−1.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:21TEX 4th & 4 at BAY 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    44.2%−1.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:51BAY 4th & 1 at TEX 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.4%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:51BAY 4th & 1 at TEX 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.4%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:39BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:15TEX 4th & 3 at midfield, up 4
    Close callPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:24TEX 4th & 1 at BAY 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.2%−3.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:49TEX 4th & 1 at BAY 1, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    48.5%−4.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−15.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:51BAY 4th & 5 at TEX 20, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.3%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    29.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−8.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:24TEX 4th & 14 at TEX 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−4.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:23TEX 4th & 11 at BAY 49, down 3
    Numbers favored punt by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%−2.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:40TEX 4th & 4 at BAY 9, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.2%−0.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−3.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:07BAY 4th & 14 at BAY 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:40TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.2%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:34TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:32BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:24TEX Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:49TEX Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:45BAY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:48BAY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:59BAY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:2457% → 57%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
57.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 22 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
57.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass intercepted return for no gain to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
57.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass intercepted return for no gain to the Bayl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2TD
4 plays · 31 yds · 1:2343% → 44%
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
57.1%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 15 yds to the Bayl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
57.0%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Cade Brewer for 1 yd to the Bayl 15Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+5
57.0%
Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
56.2%
C. Thompson pass,to J. Moore for 10 yds for a TD, (C. Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4556% → 58%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
56.3%
Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
56.3%
Abram Smith run for 4 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
56.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 12 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
56.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+11
56.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 11 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
56.2%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 5
OPP 36
-2
56.2%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 38Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+18
55.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 18 yds to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
56.0%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 7 yds to the Texas 13Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+7
55.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 7 yds to the Texas 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
58.4%
T. Thornton pass,to R. Sneed for 6 yds for a TD, (I. Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · -9 yds · 2:0343% → 42%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
57.3%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay Of Game (Brenden Schooler) to the Texas 20Similar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
57.3%
Casey Thompson sacked by Siaki Ika for 0 yards to the Texas 12Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+3
57.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 15Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+1
57.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Texas 16Similar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+2
58.1%
Cameron Dicker punt for 58 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for 2 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+2
58.1%
Cameron Dicker punt for 58 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for 2 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 4:0858% → 59%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
57.6%
Abram Smith run for 9 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 1
OWN 37
0
58.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
57.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Gavin Yates for 2 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
58.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+20
58.3%
Abram Smith run for 20 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
58.9%
SMITH, Abram rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the TEX38 (OJOMO, Moro). PENALTY TEX Personal Foul on OJOMO, Moro enforced 15 yards from the TEX39 to the TEX24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
59.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-3
59.5%
Abram Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 27Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 13
OPP 27
+8
58.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 8 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+38
59.2%
Isaiah Hankins 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2241% → 46%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
59.2%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 12 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
54.5%
C. Thompson pass,to X. Worthy for 63 yds for a TD, (C. Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7MISSED FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:0755% → 55%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
55.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+32
55.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Abram Smith for 32 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
56.6%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Texas 36Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
56.6%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
56.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+51
55.1%
Isaiah Hankins 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+51
55.1%
Isaiah Hankins 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:2046% → 47%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
53.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Texas 34Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+16
53.6%
Casey Thompson run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
50
+3
52.4%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Jared Wiley for 3 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+1
52.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+2
52.5%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
53.4%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
53.4%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2656% → 55%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
55.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
55.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+5
54.9%
Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 1
OPP 47
-2
54.6%
Abram Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 49Similar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 1
OPP 47
-2
54.6%
Abram Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:2849% → 50%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
51.5%
Juan Davis run for 3 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+6
49.9%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Marcus Washington for 6 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+6
49.8%
run for 6 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
49.7%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
49.6%
Roschon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+13
49.8%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 13 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:1252% → 50%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
52.1%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+10
52.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 10 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
53.9%
Abram Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 13
OWN 38
0
51.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+4
50.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 4 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
50.3%
Issac Power punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:0649% → 52%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
50.8%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 23 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
47.5%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Marcus Washington for 6 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 4
OWN 49
-1
46.9%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Keilan Robinson for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 48Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+2
47.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 3
50
0
48.3%
Cameron Dicker punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:2950% → 50%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
49.7%
Gerry Bohanon run for 6 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 4
OWN 14
0
50.0%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+10
48.9%
Gerry Bohanon run for 10 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
50.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass intercepted return for no gain to the Bayl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:1756% → 55%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
44.5%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Cade Brewer for 5 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
45.1%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
45.5%
Casey Thompson pass intercepted return for no gain to the Texas 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
54.6%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:5551% → 70%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
48.6%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 19 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
46.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+4
46.1%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+1
45.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 47Similar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+4
47.8%
run for 4 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
45.6%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Xavier Worthy) to the Bayl 48Similar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+7
46.1%
Bijan Robinson run for 7 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
45.2%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+22
45.5%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Marcus Washington for 22 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
44.1%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Cade Brewer for 9 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+3
44.0%
Roschon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
43.9%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
43.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 5Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
44.4%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 4 yds to the Bayl 1Similar
Q3 8:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.3%
B. Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (C. Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5532% → 54%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
31.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 23 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
33.9%
Abram Smith run for 4 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+23
34.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 23 yds to the Texas 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
36.0%
Abram Smith run for 6 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
35.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 4
OPP 19
-1
33.7%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 20Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+14
31.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 14 yds to the Texas 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
35.0%
Abram Smith run for no gain to the Texas 6Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
54.0%
G. Bohanon run for 6 yds for a TD, (I. Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:5658% → 57%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
41.7%
Casey Thompson run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
50
-4
38.2%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 46Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 14
OWN 46
0
40.3%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 14
OWN 46
0
41.2%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
43.2%
punt blocked by R.J. Sneed blocked by R.J. SneedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:3245% → 76%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
44.6%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
44.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 9 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
43.9%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
45.0%
Abram Smith run for 4 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
46.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+6
43.6%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 6 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
47.2%
Trestan Ebner run for 6 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+5
48.2%
Gerry Bohanon run for 5 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
48.6%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 5 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+28
48.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for 28 yds to the Texas 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
51.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 7 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+6
51.2%
Abram Smith run for 6 yds to the Texas 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
51.1%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Texas 1Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.1%
B. Sims run for 1 yd for a TD, (I. Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:1132% → 30%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.4%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Marcus Washington for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
67.5%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Marcus Washington for 11 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
66.0%
Casey Thompson run for 4 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+8
64.2%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Marcus Washington for 8 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
63.4%
Casey Thompson sacked for 0 yards to the Texas 46Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 16
OWN 46
+10
67.9%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Jared Wiley for 10 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 6
OPP 44
-5
63.7%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Tope Imade) to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
66.6%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 11
OPP 49
+2
69.7%
Cameron Dicker run for 2 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 1:1277% → 92%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
76.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 7
50
+18
77.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 18 yds to the Texas 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
92.2%
A. Smith run for 32 yds for a TD, (I. Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 2:549% → 14%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
90.3%
THOMPSON, Casey pass up the middle incomplete intended for MOORE, Joshua thrown to the TEX45. PENALTY BAY Holding on BARNES, Kalon enforced 10 yards from the TEX29 to the TEX39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
89.9%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Marcus Washington for 13 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
89.5%
Bijan Robinson run for 9 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+10
89.8%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 10 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
89.1%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+14
89.9%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 14 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
89.7%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
89.8%
run for 6 yds to the Bayl 9Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
90.8%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the Bayl 9Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
85.6%
Cameron Dicker 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:0693% → 94%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
92.7%
Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+9
93.7%
Abram Smith run for 9 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
94.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Abram Smith for 1 yd to the Bayl 33Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-5
94.6%
Drew Estrada run for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 28 fumbled, recovered by Bayl Drew EstradaSimilar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 14
OWN 28
0
94.5%
Gerry Bohanon run for no gain to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 14
OWN 28
+4
93.8%
Issac Power punt for 44 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for 4 yds to the Texas 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:238% → 7%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
92.5%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
92.3%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
92.8%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
93.0%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:48
B. Sims run for 1 yd for a TD, (I. Hankins KICK)
+25
TD · Q3 4:45
G. Bohanon run for 6 yds for a TD, (I. Hankins KICK)
+19
TD · Q4 7:59
A. Smith run for 32 yds for a TD, (I. Hankins KICK)
+15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com