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BAY

Baylor 28 at TCU 30

TCU
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:23 · Issac Power punt for 53 yds , Derius Davis returns for 7 yds to the TCU 34 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TCU 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+22.5+11.30−11.3−22.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior−8.5Home team on offense+1.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:57: Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drake Dabney for 21 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +10.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:07: Chandler Morris pass complete to Dominic DiNunzio for 5 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +15.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:01: Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +21.3 pts (now 53%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:59: Chandler Morris pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 19 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +16.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:04: Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 4 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +32.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:07TCU 4th & 19 at TCU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:37BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:48BAY 4th & 28 at BAY 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:29TCU 4th & 13 at BAY 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:11BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:16TCU 4th & 10 at BAY 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    39.0%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:52BAY 4th & 2 at TCU 44, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−2.7
    27% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:59TCU 4th & 4 at BAY 7, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−6.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:27BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 26, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−2.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:23BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 27, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−1.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:44TCU 4th & 8 at BAY 20, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−12.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:56TCU 4th & 5 at BAY 16, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    52.0%−23.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:53BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:59TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:57BAY Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:07TCU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:01BAY Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:59TCU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:04BAY Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:2833% → 34%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.0%
Chandler Morris run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
33.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dominic DiNunzio for no gain to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
33.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Taye Barber for 10 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-8
33.7%
Chandler Morris sacked by Gabe Hall for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 30 Chandler Morris fumbled, recovered by TCUSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 18
OWN 30
-1
33.9%
Kendre Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 29Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 19
OWN 29
0
33.8%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Blair ConwrightSimilar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 19
OWN 29
0
33.8%
Jordy Sandy punt for 33 yds, downed at the Bayl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 0:5766% → 67%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+48
34.0%
Abram Smith run for 48 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
33.8%
Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
32.6%
Tyquan Thornton 7 Yd pass from Gerry Bohanon (Isaiah Hankins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:2033% → 34%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
33.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 33 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
33.7%
Kendre Miller run for no gain to the Bayl 42 Kendre Miller fumbled, recovered by Bayl Jalen PitreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:4067% → 67%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
32.7%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
32.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 4 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-5
32.8%
Bohanon, Gerry pass complete to Ebner, Trestan for 9 yards to the TCU45, PENALTY BAYLOR ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the BAYLOR41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+2
33.1%
Gerry Bohanon run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
33.1%
Issac Power punt for 39 yds, downed at the TCU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 1:2933% → 37%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
33.2%
Chandler Morris run for 5 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+63
33.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Derius Davis for 63 yds to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
34.4%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
37.1%
Chandler Morris 12 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 2:4964% → 62%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
35.8%
Gerry Bohanon run for 19 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
35.4%
Abram Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 11
OPP 44
-15
35.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 26
OWN 41
+7
36.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Abram Smith for 7 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 19
OWN 48
-9
36.9%
Gerry Bohanon sacked by Nook Bradford for a loss of 9 yards to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 3:48
4TH & 28
OWN 39
+38
37.7%
Issac Power punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 33 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TCU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 5:0437% → 40%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
37.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Derius Davis for 3 yds to the TCU 26 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
38.4%
Morris, Chandler rush for 6 yards to the TCU47, PENALTY TCU holding 10 yards to the TCU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+13
37.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Emari Demercado for 13 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
39.2%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+7
39.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 7 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+35
40.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blair Conwright for 35 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
40.5%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 20
OPP 22
+14
40.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Quincy Brown for 14 yds to the Bayl 8Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+6
41.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Derius Davis for 6 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-14
41.2%
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the Bayl 1 TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Bayl 16Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 0
OPP 16
+3
41.9%
Chandler Morris run for 3 yds to the Bayl 13Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
40.8%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
40.3%
Griffin Kell 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:5459% → 56%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
41.5%
Abram Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 8Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 12
OWN 8
-6
42.0%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 2Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 18
OWN 2
+5
43.2%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q2 11:11
4TH & 13
OWN 7
0
44.2%
Issac Power punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9FG
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:4644% → 48%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
44.2%
Taye Barber pass complete to Chandler Morris for 7 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+3
44.9%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
45.4%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
45.7%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 7
OPP 26
-3
45.0%
Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the Bayl 19 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
44.8%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
48.0%
Griffin Kell 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:0154% → 64%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
46.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
45.8%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
46.8%
Abram Smith run for 8 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+4
45.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for 4 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
46.4%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+5
48.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 5 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+5
47.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 4:52
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+17
48.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for 17 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
45.8%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+4
46.1%
Abram Smith run for 4 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+21
35.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drake Dabney for 21 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 1:4741% → 50%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.6%
Chandler Morris run for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
41.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Derius Davis for 6 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
41.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Taye Barber for 16 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
44.4%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Taye Barber for 12 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
44.5%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+16
42.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Emari Demercado for 16 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
46.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Emari Demercado for 12 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
46.0%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
46.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the Bayl 8Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+1
46.1%
Chandler Morris run for 1 yd to the Bayl 7Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
44.7%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+24
49.5%
Griffin Kell 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:2453% → 51%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
47.6%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.8%
Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26Similar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
49.4%
Issac Power punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
48.5%
Emari Demercado run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2552% → 49%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.4%
Gerry Bohanon run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
48.3%
Gerry Bohanon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
50.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:23
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+7
51.3%
Issac Power punt for 53 yds , Derius Davis returns for 7 yds to the TCU 34 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TCU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15TD
15 plays · 83 yds · 5:5351% → 74%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
50.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Geor'Quarius Spivey for no gain to the TCU 17Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
50.0%
Chandler Morris run for no gain to the TCU 17Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+11
48.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Taye Barber for 11 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
50.7%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 23Similar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 15
OWN 23
0
50.7%
Emari Demercado run for no gain to the TCU 23Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 15
OWN 23
0
50.6%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 15
OWN 23
+25
49.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 10 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
54.8%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TCU 38Similar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 20
OWN 38
-5
52.6%
TCU Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the TCU 33Similar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 25
OWN 33
0
52.1%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 25
OWN 33
+12
52.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blake Nowell for 12 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+29
51.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Taye Barber for 29 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
57.9%
Emari Demercado run for 11 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
58.1%
Chandler Morris run for 10 yds to the Bayl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
73.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Dominic DiNunzio for 5 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5429% → 53%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.6%
Gerry Bohanon run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
71.3%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+28
72.2%
Abram Smith run for 28 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
70.4%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the TCU 42Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+41
70.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 41 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
69.1%
Abram Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 2Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 0
OPP 2
+1
68.2%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Offside (1 Yards) to the TCU 1Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17MISSED FG
6 plays · 55 yds · 1:0655% → 57%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+53
55.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 53 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
61.1%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
61.1%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
59.8%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
56.8%
Griffin Kell 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Chidi OgbonnayaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18INT
2 plays · 49 yds · 0:1946% → 52%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+49
54.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 49 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
48.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass intercepted, touchback. Kee'Yon Stewart return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:5657% → 84%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
56.8%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+14
57.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Emari Demercado for 14 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
59.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Taye Barber for no gain to the TCU 38Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
58.9%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+20
57.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Quincy Brown for 20 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
62.9%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-4
62.6%
Emari Demercado run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+12
59.7%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Quincy Brown for 12 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
66.1%
Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+13
66.6%
Chandler Morris run for 13 yds to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
66.8%
Emari Demercado run for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 19Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+19
83.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 19 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
15 plays · 86 yds · 6:2917% → 46%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
82.8%
Abram Smith run for 9 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 1
OWN 23
0
81.6%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for no gain to the Bayl 23Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+20
83.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 20 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
81.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 3
50
+5
79.9%
Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
80.4%
Smith, Abram rush for no gain to the TCU45, PENALTY TCU face mask 15 yards to the TCU30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.Similar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
80.3%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+1
81.4%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+8
84.2%
Trestan Ebner run for 8 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
82.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Abram Smith for 4 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+5
83.2%
Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+4
86.9%
Abram Smith run for 4 yds to the TCU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
85.8%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the TCU 4Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
53.6%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 4 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21MISSED FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 2:5870% → 83%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.0%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
71.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Derius Davis for 3 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+27
71.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 27 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
78.1%
Emari Demercado run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 14
OPP 47
+26
77.0%
Chandler Morris run for 26 yds to the Bayl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
81.1%
Emari Demercado run for no gain to the Bayl 21Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
83.3%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+5
81.6%
Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
82.8%
Griffin Kell 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22INT
5 plays · 46 yds · 0:4429% → 36%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+32
71.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for 32 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
62.1%
TCU Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the TCU 43Similar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 5
OPP 43
+9
61.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 9 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
61.5%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
63.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass intercepted Shadrach Banks return for no gain to the TCU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23END OF GAME
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:3090% → 94%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
90.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 13
OWN 25
-2
91.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 23Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 15
OWN 23
-3
93.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:04
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 4 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
-32.2
TD · Q3 3:01
Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
-21.3
TD · Q4 11:59
Chandler Morris pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 19 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
+16.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com