Toledo

Profile vs. FBS, 2022

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0840th
  Defense+0.0184th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.3%51st
  Defense35.2%96th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2446th
  Defense+1.2933rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0539th
  Defense+0.0748th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2869th
  Defense+0.0394th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.1%54th
  Defense41.6%93rd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense29.5%36th
  Defense24.0%90th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0240th
  Defense3.0450th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.5%31st
  Defense14.5%26th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.5%55th
  Defense17.6%69th

Percentiles among the 131 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2022

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Toledo allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   LIU
2. W
   MASS
3. L
   OSU
4. L
   SDSU
5. W
   CMU
6. W
   NIU
7. W
   KENT
8. L
   BUF
9. W
   EMU
10. W
    BALL
11. L
    BGSU
12. L
    WMU
13. W
    OHIO
14. W
    LIB

Bars above the line: better than expected for Toledo.

Players, 2022

1. Dequan FinnQB307 plays · +0.241 pts/play · 50th of 234 QBs
   1.38WAR0.81 to 2.00
2. Tucker GleasonQB145 plays · +0.149 pts/play · 133rd of 234 QBs
   0.41WAR0.03 to 0.74
3. Jacquez StuartRB101 plays · +0.132 pts/play · 118th of 384 RBs
   0.25WAR0.16 to 0.34
4. Micah KellyRB95 plays · +0.125 pts/play · 138th of 384 RBs
   0.22WAR0.15 to 0.29
5. Peny BooneRB81 plays · +0.123 pts/play · 167th of 384 RBs
   0.19WAR0.13 to 0.23
6. Jerjuan NewtonWR42 plays · +0.199 pts/play · 105th of 455 WRs
   0.16WAR0.07 to 0.24
7. Demeer BlankumseeWR35 plays · +0.158 pts/play · 209th of 455 WRs
   0.10WAR0.04 to 0.15
8. Devin MaddoxWR43 plays · +0.087 pts/play · 285th of 455 WRs
   0.07WAR−0.01 to 0.16

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Toledo's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2022

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  49949979th of 129Roster talent: 499, 79th of 129 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  15615675th of 129Recruiting: 156, 75th of 129 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  53%53%77th of 128Returning production: 53%, 77th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −3.7−3.780th of 129SP+ rating: −3.7, 80th of 129 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 129 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2022

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Toledo's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.14 of the 0.17 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at EMUQ4 0:58 4th & 8 at EMU 31, up 3Punted; the numbers favored a field goal8.1 pts
2. at EMUQ4 8:07 4th & 2 at TOL 34, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it1.8 pts
3. vs LIBQ2 0:08 4th & 12 at LIB 37, down 4Punted; the numbers favored a field goal1.7 pts
4. vs BALLQ2 0:43 4th & 15 at BALL 35, tiedPunted; the numbers favored a field goal1.4 pts
5. vs LIBQ2 3:59 4th & 7 at LIB 38, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it1.0 pts
6. at WMUQ3 12:49 4th & 3 at TOL 47, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.9 pts
7. at EMUQ4 3:31 4th & 10 at EMU 39, down 4Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)0.9 pts
8. vs OHIOQ4 1:43 4th & 9 at OHIO 29, up 10Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2022

77th of 131 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Toledo's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   LIU
2. W

   MASS
3. L

   OSU
4. L

   SDSU
5. W

   CMU
6. W

   NIU
7. W

   KENT
8. L

   BUF
9. W

   EMU
10. W

    BALL
11. L

    BGSU
12. L

    WMU
13. W

    OHIO
14. W

    LIB

What moved it, 2022

Every game starts at Toledo's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.87
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock−0.01
• Timeouts+0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.31

Game by game

• LIUW 37-0 vs LIU99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +1
• MASSW 55-10 vs MASS96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +7
• OSUL 21-77 at OSU2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −4
• SDSUL 14-17 at SDSU60% → 4%Before kickoff +10 · On the field −56: Scoreboard −38, Timeouts −2
• CMUW 38-17 vs CMU65% → 99%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +35: Scoreboard +36
• NIUW 52-32 at NIU63% → 100%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +43, Clock +2
• KENTW 52-31 vs KENT70% → 100%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +33
• BUFL 27-34 at BUF68% → 17%Before kickoff +18 · On the field −51: Scoreboard −24, Possession & field position +2
• EMUW 27-24 at EMU63% → 88%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +32, Timeouts +7
• BALLW 28-21 vs BALL82% → 96%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +22, Timeouts +2
• BGSUL 35-42 vs BGSU80% → 10%Before kickoff +30 · On the field −70: Scoreboard −47, Possession & field position −2
• WMUL 14-20 at WMU73% → 3%Before kickoff +23 · On the field −70: Scoreboard −43, Timeouts −4
• OHIOW 17-7 vs OHIO64% → 98%Before kickoff +14 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +42, Clock +2
• LIBW 21-19 vs LIB62% → 92%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +26, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from Toledo's side.

Closest call

TEM 48-49 TOL (2026) - Toledo dropped to a 1.4% win probability before pulling it out.