TOL
Toledo 23 at Bowling Green 28
BGSU2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey play
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TOL · Drive 1TD · 8 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Zach Long kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
20.5%
0.0
Q1 14:52
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 39 yds to the BGSU 36 for a 1ST down
19.0%
-1.5
Q1 14:39
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 7 yds to the BGSU 29
17.1%
-1.9
Q1 14:08
Tucker Gleason run for 4 yds to the BGSU 25 for a 1ST down
17.1%
0.0
Q1 13:30
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the BGSU 24
17.1%
0.0
Q1 12:49
PENALTY Toledo False Start (Petersen,Jacob) 5 yards from BGSU24 to BGSU29. NO PLAY.
17.1%
0.0
Q1 12:25
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 15 yds to the BGSU 14 for a 1ST down
17.1%
0.0
Q1 12:03
Chip Trayanum run for 14 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
9.0%
-8.1
BGSU · Drive 2PUNT · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q1 11:58
Robert Hammond III kickoff for 60 yds , Allen Middleton return for 16 yds to the BGSU 21
9.6%
+0.6
Q1 11:50
Cameron Pettaway run for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 20
12.2%
+2.6
Q1 11:11
Lucian Anderson III run for 5 yds to the BGSU 25
12.2%
0.0
Q1 10:46
Lucian Anderson III pass incomplete to RJ Garcia II
12.2%
0.0
Q1 10:35
John Henderson punt for 40 yds for a 1ST down , Bryson Hammer returns for 10 yds to the BGSU 41 for a 1ST down
12.2%
0.0
TOL · Drive 3DOWNS · 6 plays · 20 yds
Q1 10:10
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the BGSU 38
9.0%
-3.2
Q1 9:56
Chip Trayanum run for 8 yds to the BGSU 30 for a 1ST down
9.0%
0.0
Q1 9:21
Kenji Christian run for 3 yds to the BGSU 27
9.0%
0.0
Q1 8:45
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete
8.9%
-0.2
Q1 8:40
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross III
8.9%
0.0
Q1 8:32
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 6 yds to the BGSU 21
9.1%
+0.3
BGSU · Drive 4PUNT · 4 plays · -3 yds
Q1 8:21
Cameron Pettaway run for no gain to the BGSU 21
12.3%
+3.2
Q1 7:46
Lucian Anderson III run for no gain to the BGSU 21
12.3%
0.0
Q1 7:10
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 3 yds to the BGSU 18
12.3%
0.0
Q1 6:44
John Henderson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 33
12.3%
0.0
TOL · Drive 5TD · 7 plays · 67 yds
Q1 6:34
Junior Vandeross III run for 4 yds to the TOL 37
9.7%
-2.6
Q1 6:06
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacob Petersen for 24 yds to the BGSU 39 for a 1ST down
9.5%
-0.2
Q1 5:41
Kenji Christian run for 5 yds to the BGSU 34
9.2%
-0.3
Q1 5:10
Kenji Christian run for 8 yds to the BGSU 26 for a 1ST down
9.3%
+0.1
Q1 4:35
Kenji Christian run for 9 yds to the BGSU 17
9.3%
0.0
Q1 4:09
Chip Trayanum run for 5 yds to the BGSU 12 for a 1ST down
9.3%
0.0
Q1 3:39
Tucker Gleason run for 12 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
5.0%
-4.3
BGSU · Drive 6PUNT · 6 plays · 4 yds
Q1 3:39
Robert Hammond III kickoff for 65 yds , Cameron Pettaway return for 20 yds to the BGSU 20
5.3%
+0.3
Q1 3:23
Chris McMillian run for 3 yds to the BGSU 23
6.3%
+1.0
Q1 2:52
Chris McMillian run for 1 yd to the BGSU 24
6.3%
0.0
Q1 2:18
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Kaderris Roberts for no gain to the BGSU 24
6.3%
0.0
Q1 2:18
John Henderson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 27
6.3%
0.0
Q1 2:18
John Henderson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 27
6.3%
+1.0
TOL · Drive 7PUNT · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q1 2:18
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the TOL 30
5.3%
-1.0
Q1 2:18
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the TOL 31
5.3%
0.0
Q1 0:00
Timeout Bowling Green, clock 00:00
5.9%
-0.4
Q2 15:00
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross III
5.9%
0.0
Q2 14:45
Emilio Duran punt for 52 yds , Brennan Ridley returns for 12 yds to the BGSU 29
6.0%
0.0
BGSU · Drive 8PUNT · 11 plays · 33 yds
Q2 14:45
Chris McMillian run for 2 yds to the BGSU 31
7.2%
+1.3
Q2 14:45
Kaderris Roberts run for 5 yds to the BGSU 36
7.2%
0.0
Q2 14:45
Lucian Anderson III run for 6 yds to the BGSU 42 for a 1ST down
7.2%
0.0
Q2 14:45
Kaderris Roberts run for 4 yds to the BGSU 46
7.4%
+0.1
Q2 14:45
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 16 yds to the TOL 38 for a 1ST down
7.4%
0.0
Q2 14:45
Chris McMillian run for 3 yds to the TOL 35
8.0%
+0.6
Q2 14:45
Chris McMillian run for a loss of 3 yards to the TOL 38
8.0%
0.0
Q2 14:45
Lucian Anderson III run for 5 yds to the TOL 33
8.0%
0.0
Q2 10:49
Timeout Bowling Green, clock 10:49
7.7%
-0.3
Q2 10:49
PENALTY BGSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from Toledo33 to Toledo38. NO PLAY.
7.7%
0.0
Q2 9:31
John Henderson punt for 34 yds
7.4%
-0.2
TOL · Drive 9DOWNS · 9 plays · 94 yds
Q2 9:31
Chip Trayanum run for 17 yds to the TOL 21 for a 1ST down
4.8%
-2.7
Q2 9:31
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 3 yards to the TOL 18
4.8%
0.0
Q2 9:31
Chip Trayanum run for 12 yds to the TOL 30
4.8%
0.0
Q2 9:31
Chip Trayanum run for 19 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST down
4.8%
0.0
Q2 9:31
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Kenji Christian for 42 yds to the BGSU 9 for a 1ST down
4.6%
-0.2
Q2 9:31
Kenji Christian run for no gain to the BGSU 9
4.5%
-0.1
Q2 9:31
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 7 yds to the BGSU 2
4.5%
0.0
Q2 9:31
Chip Trayanum run for no gain to the BGSU 2
4.5%
0.0
Q2 4:51
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Connor Jones
4.9%
+0.3
BGSU · Drive 10PUNT · 4 plays · 4 yds
Q2 4:45
Lucian Anderson III pass incomplete to RJ Garcia II
6.1%
+1.2
Q2 4:25
Mar'Kel Porter run for 1 yd to the BGSU 3
6.1%
0.0
Q2 3:57
Mar'Kel Porter run for 3 yds to the BGSU 6
6.1%
0.0
Q2 3:24
John Henderson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the BGSU 43
6.1%
0.0
TOL · Drive 11TD · 5 plays · 43 yds
Q2 3:19
Kenji Christian run for 2 yds to the BGSU 41
4.5%
-1.6
Q2 2:47
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 13 yds to the BGSU 28 for a 1ST down
4.5%
0.0
Q2 2:16
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 8 yds to the BGSU 20
4.6%
+0.1
Q2 1:52
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the BGSU 17 for a 1ST down
4.6%
0.0
Q2 1:29
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacob Petersen for 17 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
0.7%
-3.9
BGSU · Drive 12TD · 8 plays · 70 yds
Q2 1:26
Robert Hammond III kickoff for 65 yds , Cameron Pettaway return for 30 yds to the BGSU 30
0.8%
0.0
Q2 1:15
Lucian Anderson III run for 1 yd to the BGSU 31
2.9%
+2.1
Q2 0:45
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 9 yds to the BGSU 40 for a 1ST down
2.9%
0.0
Q2 0:34
Lucian Anderson III pass incomplete to Mar'Kel Porter
3.0%
+0.1
Q2 0:28
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson III,Lucian pass incomplete deep right to Hogan,Finn thrown to Toledo28 PENALTY Toledo Pass Interference (Fuller,Andre) 15 yards from BGSU40 to Toledo45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
2.9%
0.0
Q2 0:24
Lucian Anderson III pass incomplete to Jyrin Johnson
3.1%
+0.2
Q2 0:13
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Cameron Pettaway for 45 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)
7.1%
+3.9
Q2 0:08
Zach Long kickoff for 54 yds , Trayvon Rudolph return for 13 yds to the TOL 48 Toledo Penalty, Offensive Holding (5 Yards) to the TOL 6
2.9%
-4.2
TOL · Drive 13END OF HALF · 1 play · 0 yds
Q2 0:00
T. Gleason takes a knee
5.2%
+2.3
BGSU · Drive 14PUNT · 5 plays · 9 yds
Q3 14:55
Robert Hammond III kickoff for 63 yds , Allen Middleton return for 23 yds to the BGSU 25
4.6%
-0.6
Q3 14:40
Cameron Pettaway run for 7 yds to the BGSU 32
6.3%
+1.7
Q3 14:05
Kaderris Roberts run for 2 yds to the BGSU 34
6.3%
0.0
Q3 13:16
Mar'Kel Porter run for no gain to the BGSU 34
6.3%
0.0
Q3 12:43
John Henderson punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 15
6.2%
-0.1
TOL · Drive 15PUNT · 8 plays · 11 yds
Q3 12:36
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 8 yds to the TOL 23
4.8%
-1.4
Q3 12:13
Chip Trayanum run for no gain to the TOL 23
4.8%
0.0
Q3 11:36
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the TOL 26 for a 1ST down
4.6%
-0.2
Q3 11:00
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 21
4.6%
0.0
Q3 10:24
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross III
4.8%
+0.2
Q3 10:19
(10:23) PENALTY Toledo Delay Of Game 5 yards from Toledo21 to Toledo16. NO PLAY.
4.8%
0.0
Q3 10:17
Chip Trayanum run for 10 yds to the TOL 26
4.8%
0.0
Q3 9:40
Emilio Duran punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BGSU 31 , Brennan Ridley returns for 2 yds to the BGSU 31
4.8%
-0.1
BGSU · Drive 16PUNT · 4 plays · 8 yds
Q3 9:20
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for no gain to the BGSU 31
6.5%
+1.7
Q3 8:55
Kaderris Roberts run for a loss of 4 yards to the BGSU 27
6.5%
0.0
Q3 8:20
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 2 yds to the BGSU 29
6.4%
-0.1
Q3 7:43
John Henderson punt for 45 yds
6.4%
0.0
TOL · Drive 17PUNT · 6 plays · 20 yds
Q3 7:29
Chip Trayanum run for 13 yds to the TOL 29 Chip Trayanum fumbled, recovered by TOL for a 1ST down
4.7%
-1.6
Q3 6:52
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 17 yds to the TOL 46 for a 1ST down
4.8%
0.0
Q3 6:41
Toledo Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Stephen Gales) to the TOL 31
4.6%
-0.1
Q3 6:31
Kenji Christian run for 6 yds to the TOL 37
4.8%
+0.1
Q3 5:50
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Kenji Christian for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 36
4.7%
-0.1
Q3 5:12
Emilio Duran punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BGSU 49
4.7%
0.0
BGSU · Drive 18TD · 9 plays · 51 yds
Q3 5:04
Kaderris Roberts run for a loss of 3 yards to the BGSU 46
6.5%
+1.8
Q3 4:22
Chris McMillian run for 3 yds to the BGSU 49
7.3%
+0.9
Q3 3:47
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson III,Lucian pass incomplete deep right to Garcia II,RJ thrown to Toledo05 PENALTY Toledo Pass Interference (Smith,Avery) 15 yards from BGSU49 to Toledo36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
7.2%
-0.2
Q3 3:41
Lucian Anderson III pass incomplete to Eli Jacon-Duffy
7.6%
+0.5
Q3 3:30
Chris McMillian run for 4 yds to the TOL 32
7.6%
0.0
Q3 2:55
PENALTY BGSU False Start (Pabst,Nate) 5 yards from Toledo32 to Toledo37. NO PLAY.
7.6%
0.0
Q3 2:40
Lucian Anderson III run for 14 yds to the TOL 23 for a 1ST down
7.5%
-0.2
Q3 2:22
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Kaderris Roberts for 15 yds to the TOL 8 for a 1ST down
7.5%
0.0
Q3 1:52
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Jacob Harris for 8 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)
18.8%
+11.4
TOL · Drive 19PUNT · 10 plays · 19 yds
Q3 1:52
Zach Long kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
16.9%
-2.0
Q3 1:46
Chip Trayanum run for 6 yds to the TOL 31
12.9%
-3.9
Q3 1:15
Chip Trayanum run for 5 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST down
12.5%
-0.5
Q3 0:32
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 35
12.2%
-0.3
Q3 0:00
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 8 yds to the TOL 43
12.3%
+0.1
Q4 15:00
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 14 yds to the BGSU 43 for a 1ST down
11.6%
-0.7
Q4 15:00
Tucker Gleason sacked by David Afogho for a loss of 8 yards to the TOL 49
11.4%
-0.2
Q4 13:45
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Eric Holley III
11.5%
+0.1
Q4 13:36
Tucker Gleason run for no gain to the TOL 49
11.5%
0.0
Q4 13:05
Emilio Duran punt for 51 yds for a touchback
11.6%
+0.1
BGSU · Drive 20INT · 1 play · 0 yds
Q4 12:54
Lucian Anderson III pass intercepted Braden Awls return for no gain to the TOL 30
14.3%
+2.7
TOL · Drive 21PUNT · 5 plays · -1 yds
Q4 12:48
Tucker Gleason run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 28
11.8%
-2.5
Q4 12:14
(12:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Gleason,Tucker pass incomplete short right to Rudolph,Trayvon thrown to Toledo39 broken up by McClendon,Jalen PENALTY Toledo Holding (Rhett,Cole) 10 yards from Toledo28 to Toledo18. NO PLAY.
12.5%
+0.7
Q4 12:07
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Terrell Crosby Jr.
12.5%
0.0
Q4 11:56
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 11 yds to the TOL 29
12.5%
0.0
Q4 11:24
Emilio Duran punt for 37 yds , Brennan Ridley returns for 9 yds to the BGSU 43
12.5%
0.0
BGSU · Drive 22PUNT · 5 plays · -4 yds
Q4 11:16
Lucian Anderson III run for no gain to the BGSU 43
15.1%
+2.6
Q4 10:56
(11:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson III,Lucian pass incomplete deep left to Middleton,Allen thrown to Toledo20 QB hurried by Dunn Jr,Anthony PENALTY BGSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Padgett,Alex) 5 yards from BGSU43 to BGSU38. NO PLAY.
15.1%
0.0
Q4 10:52
Lucian Anderson III pass incomplete to RJ Garcia II
15.1%
0.0
Q4 10:44
Lucian Anderson III run for 1 yd to the BGSU 39
15.1%
0.0
Q4 10:03
John Henderson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 20
14.9%
-0.2
TOL · Drive 23PUNT · 4 plays · 5 yds
Q4 9:54
Chip Trayanum run for 2 yds to the TOL 22
10.2%
-4.7
Q4 9:09
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 6 yds to the TOL 28
10.3%
+0.1
Q4 8:28
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 3 yards to the TOL 25
9.7%
-0.5
Q4 7:52
Emilio Duran punt for 50 yds , Brennan Ridley returns for 4 yds to the BGSU 29
9.2%
-0.5
BGSU · Drive 24TD · 3 plays · 71 yds
Q4 7:42
Chris McMillian run for a loss of 2 yards to the BGSU 27
13.4%
+4.2
Q4 7:03
RJ Garcia II pass complete to Cameron Pettaway for 73 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)
39.7%
+26.3
Q4 6:59
Zach Long kickoff for 61 yds , Trayvon Rudolph return for 16 yds to the TOL 49 Toledo Penalty, Illegal Block (4 Yards) to the TOL 4
13.1%
-26.7
TOL · Drive 25FUMBLE · 2 plays · -3 yds
Q4 6:34
Kenji Christian run for 2 yds to the TOL 6
31.8%
+18.8
Q4 6:13
Tucker Gleason sacked by Myles Bradley for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 1 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by TOL Isaiah Thomison , return for 0 yards
31.8%
0.0
BGSU · Drive 26TD · 1 play · 1 yds
Q4 6:07
Chris McMillian run for 1 yd for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)
69.9%
+38.1
TOL · Drive 27PUNT · 7 plays · -1 yds
Q4 6:02
Zach Long kickoff for 60 yds , Trayvon Rudolph return for 18 yds to the TOL 23
69.0%
-0.9
Q4 5:55
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the TOL 26
64.6%
-4.3
Q4 5:24
Chip Trayanum run for 6 yds to the TOL 32
64.6%
0.0
Q4 4:53
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Trayvon Rudolph
64.7%
+0.1
Q4 4:51
PENALTY Toledo False Start (Fouty,Carter) 5 yards from Toledo27 to Toledo22. NO PLAY.
64.7%
0.0
Q4 4:44
PENALTY Toledo False Start (Gales,Stephen) 5 yards from Toledo32 to Toledo27. NO PLAY.
65.2%
+0.4
Q4 4:44
Emilio Duran punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brennan Ridley at the BGSU 35
65.2%
0.0
BGSU · Drive 28PUNT · 8 plays · 16 yds
Q4 4:38
Kaderris Roberts run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
71.5%
+6.3
Q4 3:57
Timeout Bowling Green, clock 03:57
75.2%
+3.7
Q4 3:49
Kaderris Roberts run for 1 yd to the TOL 49
74.6%
-0.6
Q4 3:12
Chris McMillian run for 3 yds to the TOL 46
78.7%
+4.1
Q4 2:38
Lucian Anderson III run for 2 yds to the TOL 44
78.8%
+0.2
Q4 2:38
Timeout Toledo, clock 02:38
83.3%
+4.5
Q4 2:38
PENALTY BGSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from Toledo44 to Toledo49. NO PLAY.
83.3%
0.0
Q4 2:33
John Henderson punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TOL 27
83.3%
0.0
TOL · Drive 29INT · 7 plays · 41 yds
Q4 2:14
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 6 yds to the TOL 33
72.0%
-11.4
Q4 2:04
(02:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Gleason,Tucker pass incomplete deep right to Holley III,Eric thrown to BGSU45 QB hurried by Thomison,Isaiah PENALTY BGSU Pass Interference (McClendon,Jalen) 15 yards from Toledo33 to Toledo48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
72.2%
+0.3
Q4 1:58
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 46
72.5%
+0.3
Q4 1:51
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 17 yds to the BGSU 37 for a 1ST down
72.5%
0.0
Q4 1:36
Chip Trayanum run for 5 yds to the BGSU 32
71.5%
-1.0
Q4 1:12
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Chip Trayanum
76.5%
+5.0
Q4 1:06
Tucker Gleason pass intercepted MJ Cannon return for no gain to the BGSU 23
76.5%
0.0
BGSU · Drive 30SF · 6 plays · -23 yds
Q4 1:00
Chris McMillian run for 2 yds to the BGSU 25
85.1%
+8.7
Q4 0:54
Chris McMillian run for 5 yds to the BGSU 30
85.1%
0.0
Q4 0:54
Timeout Toledo, clock 00:54
85.1%
0.0
Q4 0:40
Lucian Anderson III run for a loss of 2 yards to the BGSU 28
85.1%
0.0
Q4 0:06
PENALTY BGSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from BGSU28 to BGSU23. NO PLAY.
85.3%
+0.1
Q4 0:00
Lucian Anderson III run for a loss of 23 yards for a SAFETY
85.6%
+0.4
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:07
Chris McMillian run for 1 yd for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)
+38.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:59
Zach Long kickoff for 61 yds , Trayvon Rudolph return for 16 yds to the TOL 49 Toledo Penalty, Illegal Block (4 Yards) to the TOL 4
-26.7
TD · Q4 7:03
RJ Garcia II pass complete to Cameron Pettaway for 73 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)
+26.3