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BALL

Ball State 21 at Toledo 28

TOL
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2022 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [NHSG] Kneel down by FINN, Dequan at TOL29 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:09: Carson Steele run for 38 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK) — BALL win probability +7.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:32: Carson Steele run for 34 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK) — BALL win probability +15.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:48: Peny Boone run for 3 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +13.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:24: Dequan Finn pass incomplete — TOL win probability +9.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:18: Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 8 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +28.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 9 of 11BALL made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 13:37BALL 4th & 14 at BALL 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:28TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:41BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:31BALL 4th & 11 at TOL 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    18.5%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:36TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:44TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:18BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:33TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:04BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:39TOL 4th & 9 at BALL 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−3.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:29BALL 4th & 21 at BALL 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−1.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:43TOL 4th & 15 at BALL 35, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    71.5%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:28TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:53BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:30BALL 4th & 9 at TOL 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:33TOL 4th & 21 at TOL 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−8.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:17BALL 4th & 18 at TOL 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−3.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    39.5%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:19TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−3.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:54BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−2.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:49TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−7.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:40BALL 4th & 18 at BALL 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−9.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:53TOL 4th & 13 at TOL 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−6.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:24BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 28, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%−2.0
    average punt
  24. Q4 0:35BALL 4th & 18 at BALL 45, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%−<0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BALL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:50TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:20BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:09BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:51TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:32BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:48TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:18TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1918% → 18%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
82.0%
Carson Steele run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 23Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 13
OWN 23
-1
82.0%
John Paddock sacked by Zachary Ford for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 22Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 14
OWN 22
0
82.0%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 14
OWN 22
0
81.7%
Lucas Borrow punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0982% → 81%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
81.7%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+1
81.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
81.7%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:28
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
81.3%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4719% → 19%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
81.3%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
81.2%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
81.3%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
81.2%
Lucas Borrow punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:5181% → 82%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
81.2%
Peny Boone run for 7 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+1
81.2%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
81.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 5 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
81.2%
FINN, Dequan pass to the left incomplete intended for NEWTON, Jerjuan thrown to the BSU35. PENALTY BSU Pass Interference on UZODINMA, Amechi enforced 15 yards to the TOL48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
81.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 47Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 11
OWN 47
0
81.3%
FINN, Dequan pass to the right incomplete intended for BLANKUMSEE, DeMeer thrown to the BSU17. PENALTY BSU Pass Interference on RILEY, Jordan TOL Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SCIURY, Vinny , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+16
81.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 16 yds Jerjuan Newton fumbled, recovered by Toled Jerjuan Newton for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
81.4%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
81.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+5
81.4%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
81.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 7 yds to the BalSt 18Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 3
OPP 18
0
81.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the BalSt 18Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+10
81.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 10 yds to the BalSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
82.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 8 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 3:1618% → 18%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
81.6%
TOLEDO Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
81.4%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+12
81.3%
Jayshon Jackson run for 12 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
81.1%
John Paddock sacked by Adrian Woliver and Desjuan Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 16
50
+2
81.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Carson Steele for 2 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 14
OPP 48
+3
81.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 3 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 3:31
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
81.6%
Lucas Borrow punt for 38 yds, downed at the Toled 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5582% → 81%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
81.5%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 5
OWN 12
0
81.5%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 5
OWN 12
0
81.2%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:36
4TH & 5
OWN 12
0
80.7%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 40 yds, downed at the BalSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:1620% → 25%
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
80.4%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
80.3%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
80.4%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:36
4TH & 7
OPP 49
+5
81.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 2:36
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+5
80.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offsides (Adrian Woliver) to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
80.3%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+10
79.8%
PADDOCK, John pass to the left incomplete intended for KOZIOL, Tanner thrown to the TOL18. PENALTY TOL Holding on JOHNSON, Dyontae enforced 10 yards from the TOL34 to the TOL24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
79.8%
Carson Steele run for 15 yds to the Toled 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
75.5%
Carson Steele run for 9 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1678% → 77%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
77.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 5 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
77.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 4 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 32
-1
77.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
76.6%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 32 yds, downed at the BalSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2624% → 24%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
76.0%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-2
75.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Carson Steele for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
76.3%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
76.4%
Lucas Borrow punt for 43 yds , Adam Beale returns for no gain to the Toled 38 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Toled 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4577% → 75%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
76.6%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+1
76.5%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the Toled 11Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 9
OWN 11
0
75.9%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:33
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
75.3%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the Toled 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11TD
3 plays · 47 yds · 1:2426% → 33%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
74.1%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+8
74.1%
Carson Steele run for 8 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+38
67.1%
Carson Steele run for 38 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1869% → 77%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.2%
Micah Kelly run for 5 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+20
69.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
50
+2
70.9%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+48
77.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 48 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4726% → 26%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.2%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
74.3%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
74.6%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
74.3%
punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14MISSED FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:2576% → 75%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
75.5%
Micah Kelly run for 5 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+30
76.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 30 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
77.5%
KELLY, Micah rush up the middle for no gain to the BSU30 (AMOS, Jaquan). PENALTY TOL Personal Foul on BERG, Mitchell enforced 15 yards from the BSU30 to the BSU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 25
OPP 45
0
76.3%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 25
OPP 45
+7
76.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 7 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 18
OPP 38
+9
75.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 9 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+47
74.5%
Thomas Cluckey 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 3:1028% → 29%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
71.7%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+4
70.9%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
70.5%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
70.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Vaughn Pemberton for 2 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+12
70.5%
Carson Steele run for 12 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
69.8%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 1 yd to the Toled 45Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
69.8%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 9
OPP 45
-12
68.0%
John Paddock sacked by Dyontae Johnson for a loss of 12 yards to the BalSt 43Similar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 21
OWN 43
0
71.1%
Lucas Borrow punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 1:4673% → 71%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
72.8%
BALL ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Nic Jones) to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
74.4%
FINN, Dequan pass to the right incomplete intended for NEWTON, Jerjuan thrown to the BSU24. PENALTY BSU Pass Interference on JONES, Nic enforced 15 yards to the BSU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
75.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Micah Kelly for 5 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
75.2%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+8
74.6%
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
75.6%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-8
75.3%
Dequan Finn sacked by Sidney Houston Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the BalSt 35Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 15
OPP 35
0
72.6%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 15
OPP 35
0
70.5%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17END OF HALF
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:4331% → 35%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
69.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 15 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
68.2%
PADDOCK, John pass to the right incomplete intended for JACKSON, Jayshon thrown to the TOL47. PENALTY TOL Pass Interference on MCDONALD JR., Chris enforced 15 yards to the BSU50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
50
+5
65.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 5 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
64.9%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-12
65.2%
John Paddock sacked by Nate Givhan for a loss of 12 yards to the BalSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3272% → 70%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
72.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
72.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
70.3%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 0:5632% → 50%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
67.6%
Jayshon Jackson run for 7 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+25
65.8%
Carson Steele run for 25 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
50.5%
Carson Steele run for 34 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4455% → 74%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
55.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
50
+8
58.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 8 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+7
59.3%
Micah Kelly run for 7 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
60.6%
Micah Kelly run for 6 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+1
60.6%
Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the BalSt 28Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+5
59.1%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the BalSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+20
60.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 20 yds to the BalSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
73.8%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5334% → 34%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
66.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Coll for 4 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
65.2%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 38Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+2
65.4%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 7:53
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
66.4%
Lucas Borrow punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22INT
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:5169% → 71%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+39
68.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 39 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
72.4%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+6
72.4%
Peny Boone run for 6 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+4
72.0%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
73.3%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
73.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 4 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
71.1%
Dequan Finn pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 4:3236% → 38%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
64.4%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
64.1%
John Paddock run for 4 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+10
64.5%
Carson Steele run for 10 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
62.6%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 2 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+1
62.1%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 41Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+9
63.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
50
0
60.4%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 10
50
+1
61.1%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
62.0%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
62.0%
Lucas Borrow punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:5765% → 61%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+14
64.8%
Micah Kelly run for 14 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
65.3%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+2
65.3%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 31
-5
64.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Vinny Sciury) to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 26
-10
62.9%
Dequan Finn sacked by Tavion Woodard for a loss of 10 yards to the Toled 16Similar
Q4 13:33
4TH & 21
OWN 16
0
60.9%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 31 yds , Jayshon Jackson returns for no gain to the Toled 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:1645% → 40%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
55.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 16 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
54.0%
STEELE, Carson rush up the middle for no gain to the TOL31 (JOHNSON, Dyontae;GANT, Dallas). PENALTY BSU Holding on HUNT, Brady enforced 10 yards from the TOL31 to the TOL41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+4
57.1%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 16
OPP 37
0
57.2%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 16
OPP 37
-2
59.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Carson Steele for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 18
OPP 39
0
60.3%
Lucas Borrow punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5863% → 59%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
62.8%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the Toled 15Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
62.9%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
60.7%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
59.1%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2546% → 41%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
53.8%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
54.7%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
56.1%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
58.7%
Lucas Borrow punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0562% → 58%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
62.2%
Peny Boone run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 16Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 12
OWN 16
0
61.6%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 12
OWN 16
0
59.6%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:49
4TH & 12
OWN 16
0
57.8%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 47 yds, downed at the BalSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:0945% → 41%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
55.3%
QB Keeper PADDOCK, John rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the BSU40 (HOOK, Maxen). PENALTY BSU Holding on CROWE, Ethan enforced 10 yards from the BSU37 to the BSU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+2
57.0%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 18
OWN 29
0
57.9%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 18
OWN 29
0
59.4%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 18
OWN 29
0
59.3%
Lucas Borrow punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:4761% → 57%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
61.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 16 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
65.0%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
63.6%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 8
OWN 45
-5
61.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Micah Kelly for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 4:53
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
57.2%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2946% → 44%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
53.7%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
54.3%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+5
55.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 5 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+7
55.6%
Lucas Borrow punt for 44 yds , Adam Beale returns for 7 yds to the Toled 35 BALL ST Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (TEAM) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 32TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:0665% → 97%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
50
0
65.1%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 10
50
+9
64.4%
Micah Kelly run for 9 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+5
64.9%
Micah Kelly run for 5 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
65.7%
Micah Kelly run for 12 yds to the BalSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
67.2%
KELLY, Micah rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the BSU19 (AMOS, Jaquan;NEWSON, Keionte). PENALTY TOL Holding on MAJOR, Kendall enforced 10 yards from the BSU24 to the BSU34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+22
65.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 22 yds to the BalSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
68.9%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the BalSt 8Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
97.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 8 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 33INT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:439% → 8%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.1%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
91.2%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+28
91.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 28 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
87.8%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
88.2%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-8
89.3%
John Paddock sacked by Jamal Hines for a loss of 8 yards to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 18
OWN 45
-15
92.0%
John Paddock pass intercepted for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamal Hines) to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 34END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:2997% → 96%
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
96.6%
[NHSG] Kneel down by FINN, Dequan at TOL31 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
96.4%
[NHSG] Kneel down by FINN, Dequan at TOL29 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
96.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by FINN, Dequan at TOL29 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:18
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 8 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
+28.3
TD · Q3 12:32
Carson Steele run for 34 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)
-15.3
TD · Q3 9:48
Peny Boone run for 3 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
+13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com