Auburn

Profile vs. FBS, 2017

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1466th
  Defense−0.0385th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.8%75th
  Defense35.2%95th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.067th
  Defense+1.1760th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0860th
  Defense−0.0583rd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2264th
  Defense+0.0186th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.0%78th
  Defense40.5%93rd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.5%57th
  Defense25.8%98th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1484th
  Defense2.6474th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.2%93rd
  Defense21.3%64th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.3%78th
  Defense17.0%57th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2017

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Auburn allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   GASO
2. L
   CLEM
3. W
   MER
4. W
   MIZ
5. W
   MSST
6. W
   MISS
7. L
   LSU
8. W
   ARK
9. W
   TA&M
10. W
    UGA
11. W
    ULM
12. W
    ALA
13. L
    UGA
14. L
    UCF

Bars above the line: better than expected for Auburn.

Players, 2017

1. Jarrett StidhamQB336 plays · +0.183 pts/play · 65th of 226 QBs
   1.15WAR0.52 to 1.80
2. Kerryon JohnsonRB238 plays · +0.145 pts/play · 15th of 352 RBs
   0.65WAR0.43 to 0.82
3. Daniel CarlsonPK18 plays · +0.650 pts/play · 4th of 110 kickers
   0.22WAR0.15 to 0.29
4. Ryan DavisWR74 plays · +0.137 pts/play · 47th of 426 WRs
   0.19WAR0.11 to 0.27
5. Kamryn PettwayRB37 plays · +0.179 pts/play · 232nd of 352 RBs
   0.12WAR0.10 to 0.16
6. Eli StoveWR44 plays · +0.102 pts/play · 242nd of 426 WRs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.11
7. Darius SlaytonWR47 plays · +0.088 pts/play · 262nd of 426 WRs
   0.08WAR0.04 to 0.12
8. Will HastingsWR29 plays · +0.142 pts/play · 262nd of 426 WRs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.10

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Auburn's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2017

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  8678678th of 130Roster talent: 867, 8th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  2722727th of 130Recruiting: 272, 7th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  52%52%85th of 128Returning production: 52%, 85th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +24.7+24.78th of 128SP+ rating: +24.7, 8th of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2017

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Auburn's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.12 of the 0.16 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at LSUQ4 14:26 4th & 1 at midfield, up 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it−6.7 pts
2. at LSUQ4 1:49 4th & 10 at AUB 25, down 1Went for it; the numbers favored punting−2.4 pts
3. vs MSSTQ2 4:53 4th & 1 at AUB 35, up 18Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
4. vs UGAQ3 13:22 4th & 2 at AUB 47, up 9Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
5. vs ALAQ4 5:33 4th & 3 at midfield, up 12Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. at TA&MQ3 13:32 4th & 1 at AUB 34, up 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
7. at MIZQ3 15:00 4th & 1 at AUB 45, up 24Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
8. at TA&MQ4 0:00 4th & 3 at TA&M 30, up 15Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2017

66th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Auburn's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   GASO
2. L

   CLEM
3. W

   MER
4. W

   MIZ
5. W

   MSST
6. W

   MISS
7. L

   LSU
8. W

   ARK
9. W

   TA&M
10. W

    UGA
11. W

    ULM
12. W

    ALA
13. L

    UGA
14. L

    UCF

What moved it, 2017

Every game starts at Auburn's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.38
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock−0.04
• Timeouts+0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.47

Game by game

• GASOW 41-7 vs GASO98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +3
• CLEML 6-14 at CLEM38% → 3%Before kickoff −12 · On the field −35: Scoreboard −33, Timeouts −2
• MERW 24-10 vs MER99% → 99%Before kickoff +49 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +4
• MIZW 51-14 at MIZ88% → 100%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +18
• MSSTW 49-10 vs MSST69% → 100%Before kickoff +19 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +32
• MISSW 44-23 vs MISS93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +11
• LSUL 23-27 at LSU64% → 4%Before kickoff +14 · On the field −60: Scoreboard −41, Possession & field position −1
• ARKW 52-20 at ARK87% → 86%Before kickoff +37 · On the field −2: Scoreboard +19, Possession & field position +1
• TA&MW 42-27 at TA&M84% → 99%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +25, Clock +1
• UGAW 40-17 vs UGA38% → 100%Before kickoff −12 · On the field +62: Scoreboard +52, Possession & field position +1
• ULMW 42-14 vs ULM99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +3
• ALAW 26-14 vs ALA31% → 98%Before kickoff −19 · On the field +67: Scoreboard +46, Timeouts +2
• UGAL 7-28 vs UGA40% → 0%Before kickoff −10 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −44, Clock −2
• UCFL 27-34 vs UCF76% → 5%Before kickoff +26 · On the field −71: Scoreboard −57, Clock −4

Points of win probability, from Auburn's side.

Closest call

TA&M 24-28 AUB (2018) - Auburn dropped to a 12.7% win probability before pulling it out.