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MISS

Ole Miss 23 at Auburn 44

AUB
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:37 · Aidan Marshall punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Myles Hartsfield at the Miss 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Pregame prior+22.0Home team on offense+29.8Score differential+24.1Blowout margin+9.7Garbage-time factor+9.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:04: Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 75 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:53: Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 19 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +2.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:24: Kerryon Johnson run for 48 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:38: Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:27: Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 8 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +1.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:37MISS 4th & 7 at AUB 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:01AUB 4th & 1 at MISS 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.4%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:19MISS 4th & 6 at AUB 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:31MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 33, down 11
    Close callPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:42MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:54MISS 4th & 6 at AUB 29, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:31MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 44, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:21MISS 4th & 7 at midfield, down 32
    Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:02AUB 4th & 5 at MISS 43, up 32
    Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−<0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:22MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 36, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:53AUB 4th & 11 at MISS 31, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:37AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 29, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:54MISS 4th & 7 at MISS 37, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:05AUB 4th & 5 at MISS 8, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:21MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 34, down 31
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:45AUB 4th & 19 at AUB 20, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:32AUB 4th & 3 at MISS 18, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:31AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:04AUB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:53AUB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:24AUB Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:38AUB Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:07MISS Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:27MISS Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:57MISS Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1MISSED FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 2:187% → 8%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
92.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 7 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
92.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
92.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+31
92.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Dawson Knox for 31 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
92.2%
Shea Patterson run for no gain to the Aub 29 Shea Patterson fumbled, recovered by Miss Shea PattersonSimilar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
92.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 3 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
92.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+43
92.1%
Gary Wunderlich 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 5:0392% → 92%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
92.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Chandler Cox for 3 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
92.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+26
91.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 26 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
91.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
91.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for no gain to the Miss 38Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+5
91.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Miss 33Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+5
91.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
91.6%
Devan Barrett run for 5 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+1
91.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Miss 22Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+3
91.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 3 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+2
90.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
91.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 17 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:068% → 10%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
91.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for 13 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
91.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for 4 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+11
91.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 11 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+24
91.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 24 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
90.8%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 1 yd to the Aub 20Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+6
90.8%
Shea Patterson sacked by Jeff Holland and Derrick Brown for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 29 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Roughing Passer (Dontavius Russell) to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
90.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
90.5%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
90.6%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q1 4:19
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
90.1%
Gary Wunderlich 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
91.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 75 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:279% → 9%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
91.2%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 23Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+10
91.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 10 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+6
91.2%
Will Gleeson punt for 47 yds , Stephen Roberts returns for 6 yds to the Aub 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:3291% → 94%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
91.2%
Kam Martin run for 11 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
91.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+12
91.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 12 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
91.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
91.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Nate Craig-MyersSimilar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+19
91.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 19 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
91.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+1
91.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Miss 19Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+19
93.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 19 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:047% → 7%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
93.3%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
93.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+25
93.5%
Mac Brown punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the AUBURN 28 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (A.J. Moore) to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 1:1194% → 95%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-6
93.8%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 6 yards to the Aub 37Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 16
OWN 37
+15
93.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for 15 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+48
94.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 48 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9DOWNS
12 plays · 49 yds · 3:225% → 8%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
93.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D'Vaughn Pennamon for 6 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
92.8%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 2 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
93.0%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
92.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D'Vaughn Pennamon for 6 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+6
92.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 6 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
92.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for 19 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
91.9%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
91.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ty QuickSimilar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
92.3%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ty QuickSimilar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+3
92.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 3 yds to the Aub 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:1296% → 98%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
95.8%
Kam Martin run for 5 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+31
95.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kyle Davis for 31 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
96.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for 14 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
96.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+9
95.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 9 yds to the Miss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
96.3%
Stidham, Jarrett pass complete to Davis, Ryan for 4 yards to the OLEMISS6, PENALTY OLEMISS substitution infraction 5 yards to the OLEMISS5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
15 plays · 25 yds · 4:072% → 1%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Dawson Knox for 1 yd to the Miss 26Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
98.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
98.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 10 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
98.8%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 1 yd to the Miss 37Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
98.8%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+7
98.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 7 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+3
98.9%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 3 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.2%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 7
50
-2
99.2%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 48Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+2
99.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D'Vaughn Pennamon for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:21
4TH & 7
50
0
99.3%
Will Gleeson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 47 yds · 1:1299% → 99%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
99.0%
Kam Martin run for 8 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+14
99.1%
Kam Martin run for 14 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
99.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 20 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
99.2%
Kam Martin run for 6 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-1
99.2%
Kam Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
99.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
99.1%
Aidan Marshall punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:301% → 1%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
99.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 10 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 6 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Will Gleeson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
99.2%
Malik Miller run for 5 yds to the Aub 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15FG
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0299% → 99%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
99.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 31Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 11
OPP 31
0
99.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 11
OPP 31
0
99.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Will HastingsSimilar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+49
99.3%
Daniel Carlson 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:171% → 1%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd to the Miss 26Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+40
99.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 40 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
99.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+10
99.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 10 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
99.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 6 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+9
99.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for 9 yds to the Aub 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 9 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for no gain to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.5%
Aidan Marshall punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Myles Hartsfield at the Miss 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:341% → 0%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
99.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
99.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
99.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q3 8:54
4TH & 7
OWN 37
+3
99.6%
Will Gleeson punt for 51 yds , Stephen Roberts returns for 3 yds to the Aub 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19FG
14 plays · 77 yds · 5:40100% → 100%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
99.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+2
99.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+15
99.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 15 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 30Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+20
99.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
50
+8
99.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 8 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 2
OPP 42
0
99.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Kyle DavisSimilar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+3
99.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+26
99.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 26 yds to the Miss 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
99.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+3
99.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Miss 7Similar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 4
OPP 7
-1
99.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 8Similar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
99.8%
Daniel Carlson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:070% → 0%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
99.8%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 3 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
99.8%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 1 yd to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 1:21
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.8%
Will Gleeson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
99.8%
Eli Stove run for 10 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
99.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for 2 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 8
OWN 31
-10
99.8%
Malik Miller run for no gain to the Aub 31 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 21Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 18
OWN 21
-1
99.8%
Malik Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 20Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 19
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Kerryon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 19
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Aidan Marshall punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Myles Hartsfield at the Miss 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:130% → 1%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 5 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
99.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+4
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 4 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
99.9%
Shea Patterson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 44 Shea Patterson fumbled, recovered by Miss Shea PattersonSimilar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+22
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 22 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+26
99.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for 26 yds to the Aub 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 8 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 5:2399% → 100%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
99.1%
Kam Martin run for 1 yd to the Aub 18Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+5
99.1%
Kam Martin run for 5 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+13
99.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 13 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
99.2%
Malik Willis run for 12 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
99.2%
Kam Martin run for 1 yd to the Aub 49Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+26
99.5%
Eli Stove run for 26 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
99.6%
Malik Willis run for 4 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
99.6%
Malik Miller run for 2 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+1
99.6%
Malik Miller run for 1 yd to the Miss 18Similar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
99.9%
Daniel Carlson 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:260% → 1%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for 15 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 9 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
99.9%
Shea Patterson run for 4 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for 5 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+3
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 3 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+5
99.9%
Eric Swinney run for 5 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 14 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
99.9%
Eric Swinney run for 4 yds to the Aub 16Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+15
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for 15 yds to the Aub 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.7%
Malik Miller run for 4 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+5
99.7%
Malik Miller run for 5 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+4
99.8%
Malik Miller run for 4 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
99.8%
Malik Miller run for 1 yd to the Miss 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:53
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 19 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q2 6:38
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+1.8
TD · Q2 12:24
Kerryon Johnson run for 48 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+1.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com