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AUB

Auburn 51 at Missouri 14

MIZ
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:33 · Ian Shannon punt for 41 yds, downed at the Misso 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Home team on offense−4.8Pregame prior−34.9Score differential−2.3Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:32: Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +3.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:45: Kerryon Johnson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:06: Drew Lock pass complete to Damarea Crockett for 19 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +2.5 pts (now 10%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:35: Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +2.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:21: Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 57 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 8AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00MIZ 4th & 9 at MIZ 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:07MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:33AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:42MIZ 4th & 10 at AUB 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    13.5%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:45AUB 4th & 7 at MIZ 24, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:29MIZ 4th & 8 at AUB 42, down 24
    Close callPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    8.3%
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 45, up 24
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:38MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 19, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:35MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 32, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:21MIZ 4th & 7 at AUB 37, down 38
    Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:25AUB 4th & 7 at MIZ 35, up 38
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:24AUB 4th & 12 at MIZ 37, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:06AUB 4th & 22 at AUB 20, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:30MIZ 4th & 5 at AUB 29, down 37
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:23AUB 4th & 1 at MIZ 28, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:44AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:07AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:32AUB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:45AUB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:06MIZ Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:35AUB Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:21AUB Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:15MIZ Touchdown, down 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.2%
Damarea Crockett run for 5 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
12.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 4 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-4
12.2%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-4
12.2%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+1
12.2%
Corey Fatony punt for 55 yds , Stephen Roberts returns for 1 yd to the Aub 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:1087% → 87%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+58
13.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kyle Davis for 58 yds to the Misso 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
13.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 4
OPP 16
0
13.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the Misso 16Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+11
13.0%
Jarrett Stidham run for 5 yds to the Misso 11 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Anthony Sherrils) to the Misso 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
13.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Misso 1Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3INT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Damarea CrockettSimilar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
13.4%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
13.4%
Drew Lock pass intercepted Carlton Davis return for no gain to the Misso 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:2587% → 88%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
13.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Devan Barrett for 1 yd to the Misso 31Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
13.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the Misso 31Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+13
13.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 13 yds to the Misso 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
13.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Misso 15Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+13
13.2%
Jarrett Stidham run for 13 yds to the Misso 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
13.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the Misso 2Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
12.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
12.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 1 yd to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
12.9%
Drew Lock run for 2 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
12.8%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Reese, Jason, PENALTY AU pass interference (Stephen Roberts) 10 yards to the MU38, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
13.1%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
13.0%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 33Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+5
12.9%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
12.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Jason ReeseSimilar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
12.9%
Corey Fatony punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:3387% → 87%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
12.7%
Jarrett Stidham run for 4 yds to the Aub 14Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+7
12.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 7 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
12.8%
Devan Barrett run for no gain to the Aub 21Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
12.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 3 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
12.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
13.0%
Ian Shannon punt for 41 yds, downed at the Misso 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
13.3%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+18
13.5%
Damarea Crockett run for 18 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
13.6%
Damarea Crockett run for no gain to the Aub 44Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
13.6%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
13.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
13.4%
Corey Fatony punt for 34 yds, downed at the Aub 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 3:3487% → 91%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
13.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Aub 16Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+3
13.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 19Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+3
13.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
13.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+12
13.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 12 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+46
13.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 46 yds to the Misso 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
12.8%
Kam Martin run for 14 yds to the Misso 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
12.7%
Kam Martin run for 2 yds to the Misso 1Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9FUMBLE
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
9.6%
Damarea Crockett run for 1 yd to the Misso 26Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
9.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 7 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
9.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 2 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
9.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
9.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Richaud Floyd for 4 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+8
9.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Jason Reese for 8 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
10.2%
Damarea Crockett run for no gain to the Misso 47Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
10.1%
Drew Lock run for 5 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+33
10.1%
Drew Lock sacked by Jeff Holland for a loss of 8 yards to the Misso 20 Drew Lock fumbled, recovered by Aub Marlon Davidson , return for 0 yards , return for 33 yds to the Misso 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10TD
4 plays · 20 yds · 1:3792% → 93%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
8.5%
Eli Stove run for 4 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+5
8.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 5 yds to the Misso 11Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+4
8.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Misso 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
6.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:316% → 10%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
6.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 15 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
6.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 8 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+5
6.4%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
50
+6
6.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 6 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+11
6.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 11 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
7.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Aub 32Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+4
7.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 4 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+10
6.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Richaud Floyd for 10 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
7.1%
Damarea Crockett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 19Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+19
9.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Damarea Crockett for 19 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12FG
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:2192% → 93%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
8.5%
Kam Martin run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+47
8.5%
Kam Martin run for 47 yds to the Misso 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
7.9%
Kam Martin run for 1 yd to the Misso 26Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+2
8.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 2 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
8.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Will HastingsSimilar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
7.2%
Daniel Carlson 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 1:168% → 8%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
8.4%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
8.4%
Ish Witter run for 12 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
8.8%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+14
8.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 14 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
9.4%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
7.8%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
7.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Ish WitterSimilar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
7.6%
Corey Fatony punt for 37 yds, downed at the Aub 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
5.8%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
5.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
5.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
6.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 7 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
5.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 4 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-7
5.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for 3 yds to the Aub 43 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive holding (Kyle Davis) to the Aub 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
5.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Nate Craig-MyersSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+12
6.1%
Jarrett Stidham run for 12 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
6.2%
Ian Shannon punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Richaud Floyd at the Misso 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
5.3%
Damarea Crockett run for 5 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+2
5.4%
Damarea Crockett run for 2 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 3
OWN 23
-4
5.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 19Similar
Q3 12:38
4TH & 7
OWN 19
+3
5.3%
Corey Fatony run for 3 yds to the Misso 22 MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:2496% → 98%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+21
4.0%
Eli Stove run for 21 yds to the Misso 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
3.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Kendall Blanton for 7 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
3.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Larry Rountree IIISimilar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
3.6%
Corey Fatony punt for 25 yds, downed at the Aub 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19TD
1 play · 57 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
1.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 57 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
1.1%
Drew Lock run for 11 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
1.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dimetrios MasonSimilar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+14
1.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
50
+10
1.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 10 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
1.2%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+1
1.1%
Dominic Collins run for 1 yd to the Aub 37Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
1.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Richaud FloydSimilar
Q3 9:21
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
1.1%
Corey Fatony punt for 28 yds, downed at the Aub 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:5099% → 99%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
1.0%
Kam Martin run for 4 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+3
1.0%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the Aub 16Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 3
OWN 16
0
1.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 3
OWN 16
+15
1.3%
Ian Shannon punt 58 yards to the MU26, downed, PENALTY MU personal foul (Brooks, Jamal) 15 yards to the AU31, 1ST DOWN AU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+31
0.9%
Eli Stove run for 31 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
0.9%
Kam Martin run for no gain to the Misso 38Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
0.9%
Kam Martin run for 2 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+1
0.9%
Jarrett Stidham run for 1 yd to the Misso 35Similar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+52
0.8%
Daniel Carlson 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22FUMBLE
6 plays · 37 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
0.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 13 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
0.4%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+9
0.4%
Damarea Crockett run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
50
+6
0.5%
Damarea Crockett run for 6 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+6
0.4%
Damarea Crockett run for 6 yds to the Aub 38 Damarea Crockett fumbled, forced by Montavious Atkinson, recovered by Aub Daniel ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+27
0.5%
Malik Willis run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (DeMarkus Acy) to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
0.5%
Malik Willis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 38
-10
0.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to Griffin King for no gain to the Misso 38 AUBURN Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (-10 Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 23
OPP 48
+5
0.5%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive offside (Kobie Whiteside) to the Misso 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 43
+3
0.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to Malik Miller for 3 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+3
0.5%
Malik Willis run for 3 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q4 13:24
4TH & 12
OPP 37
+54
0.5%
Daniel Carlson 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:090% → 0%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
0.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 22 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
0.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 13 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
0.3%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Mason, Dimetrio, PENALTY AU pass interference (John Broussard) 15 yards to the AU25, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
0.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 25 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
0.4%
Malik Miller run for 2 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 8
OPP 0
+9
0.3%
Malik Willis run for 9 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
0.4%
Malik Miller run for 6 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-2
0.3%
Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Igbinoghene for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 36Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-5
0.4%
AUBURN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 31Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 11
OWN 31
-11
0.4%
Malik Willis sacked by Kobie Whiteside for a loss of 11 yards to the Aub 20Similar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 22
OWN 20
0
0.4%
Ian Shannon punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Richaud Floyd at the Misso 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26FUMBLE
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
0.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Ish Witter for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 40Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
0.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dimetrios MasonSimilar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+26
0.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 26 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
0.2%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
0.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for 5 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
0.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Albert OkwuegbunamSimilar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 5
OPP 29
-9
0.1%
Drew Lock sacked by Jordyn Peters for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 39 Drew Lock fumbled, recovered by Aub Tyrone Truesdell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 27DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
0.2%
Malik Willis run for 1 yd to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+7
0.2%
Malik Miller run for 7 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
0.2%
Malik Miller run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
50
+5
0.1%
Malik Miller run for 5 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-1
0.1%
Malik Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 46Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+9
0.2%
Malik Miller run for 9 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
0.1%
Malik Miller run for 5 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
0.1%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Griffin KingSimilar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+4
0.1%
Malik Miller run for 4 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 1
OPP 28
0
0.2%
Malik Willis run for no gain to the Misso 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:32
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
-3.3
TD · Q2 4:06
Drew Lock pass complete to Damarea Crockett for 19 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
+2.5
TD · Q3 9:21
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 57 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
-2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com