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ALA

Alabama 14 at Auburn 26

AUB
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+13.3AUB 89.7%Jarrett Stidham run for 16 yds for aTD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )AWAY 14 - HOME 26 · Q4 12:49
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:49 · Jarrett Stidham run for 16 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior−4.3Home team on offense+21.5Garbage-time factor+10.7Score differential+7.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:31: Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 36 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +9.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Daniel Carlson 33 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +4.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:22: Bo Scarbrough run for 21 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +12.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:02: Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +22.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:49: Jarrett Stidham run for 16 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — AUB win probability +13.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 7ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 12:24AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:32ALA 4th & 1 at AUB 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:38ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:57AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:05ALA 4th & 1 at AUB 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    44.8%−2.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:27AUB 4th & 9 at ALA 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    45.8%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:53ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−0.6
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00AUB 4th & 4 at ALA 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.2%−0.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−6.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:12AUB 4th & 8 at ALA 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−7.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:08ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 32, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:53ALA 4th & 9 at AUB 17, down 6
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.6%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−13.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:03ALA 4th & 4 at AUB 33, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    10.0%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:33AUB 4th & 3 at midfield, up 12
    Close callPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:29ALA 4th & 22 at AUB 41, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%−0.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%
    32% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:08AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 44, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:38AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:31ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:22ALA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:02AUB Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:49AUB Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    87.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2831% → 32%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
30.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 11 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
31.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 3 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-4
31.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 36Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+9
31.5%
Jarrett Stidham run for 9 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 12:24
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
31.9%
Aidan Marshall punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:4568% → 67%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
31.9%
Damien Harris run for 9 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+8
32.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for 8 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
32.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+12
32.3%
Robert Foster run for 12 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
32.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 5 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
32.4%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 3
50
+2
32.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 2 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
32.8%
JK Scott punt for 42 yds, downed at the Aub 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3TD
13 plays · 95 yds · 4:4533% → 40%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
33.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 5 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+15
33.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 15 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
33.4%
Jarrett Stidham run for 1 yd to the Aub 27Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
33.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Nate Craig-Myers, broken up by Levi WallaceSimilar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+25
33.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 25 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
34.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 23 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
34.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
35.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Jalen Harris for 5 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+10
35.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 10 yds to the Alab 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+4
36.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Alab 7Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+4
36.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Alab 3Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
39.5%
Kerryon Johnson pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4FUMBLE
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:4961% → 60%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.8%
Jalen Hurts run for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
39.3%
Hurts, Jalen pass incomplete to Ridley, Calvin, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Davis, Javaris) 15 yards to the ALABAMA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
38.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 17 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-13
38.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Bo Scarbrough for 2 yds to the Alab 41 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (Jonah Williams) to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 23
OWN 44
-4
39.7%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Deshaun Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 40Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 27
OWN 40
+4
40.1%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the Alab 44 Jalen Hurts fumbled, forced by Derrick Brown, recovered by Aub Tre' WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:3542% → 44%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
41.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 11 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
41.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+4
42.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+9
42.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 9 yds to the Alab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
42.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 12 yds to the Alab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
43.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Alab 4Similar
Q1 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
43.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Sal CannellaSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 0
OPP 4
-5
43.9%
Jarrett Stidham run for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 9 Jarrett Stidham fumbled, recovered by Alab Da'Ron PayneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1658% → 56%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
42.3%
Jalen Hurts run for 5 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 5
OWN 14
0
42.8%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
43.6%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:59
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
44.0%
AUBURN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Robert Foster) to the Alab 14Similar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
44.3%
JK Scott punt for 64 yds, downed at the Aub 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2444% → 43%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
43.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for no gain to the Aub 22Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
44.0%
Jarrett Stidham run for 5 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
44.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 5
OWN 27
-5
43.3%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Darrell Williams) to the Aub 22Similar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
43.3%
Aidan Marshall punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:1457% → 64%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
43.4%
Josh Jacobs run for 5 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+7
43.1%
Jalen Hurts run for 7 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
43.1%
Josh Jacobs run for 3 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
43.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+2
44.3%
Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 9:05
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+3
45.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
36.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 36 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:4740% → 42%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
40.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 24Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+10
40.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 10 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
41.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 10 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
42.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 7 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+4
43.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
44.1%
Malik Willis run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 49Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+2
42.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+3
42.3%
Jarrett Stidham run for 3 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 4:27
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
41.6%
Aidan Marshall punt for 42 yds, downed at the Alab 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2561% → 58%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
39.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 1 yd to the Alab 3Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+5
39.8%
Bo Scarbrough run for 5 yds to the Alab 8Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 4
OWN 8
0
41.0%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin Ridley, broken up by Jordyn PetersSimilar
Q2 2:53
4TH & 4
OWN 8
0
41.7%
JK Scott punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Alab 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11END OF HALF
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:4446% → 49%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
45.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
46.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+23
45.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 23 yds to the Alab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
47.1%
Jarrett Stidham run for 2 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
47.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the Alab 20Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+4
46.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+33
49.4%
Daniel Carlson 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 1:2452% → 68%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
47.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for 12 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+31
47.2%
Damien Harris run for 31 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
44.8%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+14
44.1%
Bo Scarbrough run for 14 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
31.8%
Bo Scarbrough run for 21 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 2:5637% → 43%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
36.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+2
37.1%
Jarrett Stidham run for 2 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+20
36.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 20 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
40.0%
Stidham, Jarrett pass incomplete to Slayton, Darius, PENALTY ALABAMA substitution infraction 5 yards to the ALABAMA47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+7
40.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 7 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
40.8%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Da'Shawn Hand for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+15
38.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Rashaan Evans) to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
42.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
42.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
40.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
43.3%
Daniel Carlson 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4959% → 58%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
40.6%
Bo Scarbrough run for 5 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
40.0%
Bo Scarbrough run for no gain to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+4
41.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Bo Scarbrough for 4 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
42.1%
JK Scott punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ryan Davis at the Aub 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:5943% → 71%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
43.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+4
43.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+25
43.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 25 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
48.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
48.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+9
47.7%
Jarrett Stidham run for 9 yds to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
50.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+12
49.8%
Jarrett Stidham run for 12 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
50.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+7
50.4%
Eli Stove run for 7 yds to the Alab 3Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
48.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Alab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16FUMBLE
10 plays · 13 yds · 1:5743% → 39%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
56.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Jonah Williams) to the Aub 44Similar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+15
58.9%
Hurts, Jalen pass incomplete to Ridley, Calvin, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Davis, Carlton) 15 yards to the AUBURN29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
54.4%
Josh Jacobs run for 6 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+5
54.5%
Josh Jacobs run for 5 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
54.7%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+6
55.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 6 yds to the Aub 12Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 4
OPP 12
-5
57.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Aub 17Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
58.3%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 9
OPP 17
0
60.8%
TEAM run for no gain to the Aub 26 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Alab JK Scott JK Scott pass complete to Andy Pappanastos for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:5571% → 90%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
71.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 0:12
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+8
71.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 8 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
72.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 15 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
75.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+25
75.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 25 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
76.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+16
89.7%
Jarrett Stidham run for 16 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18DOWNS
12 plays · 42 yds · 3:3816% → 12%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.3%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the Alab 26Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
84.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 7 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
83.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 10 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
84.7%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
84.6%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Hale HentgesSimilar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+16
85.0%
Jalen Hurts run for 16 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
86.6%
Damien Harris run for 6 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
85.4%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 4
OPP 33
-5
86.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 38 TEAM fumbled, recovered by AlabSimilar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 9
OPP 38
+5
87.7%
AUBURN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 9:03
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+3
88.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Robert Foster for 3 yds to the Aub 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 3:2492% → 96%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
92.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+1
92.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 37Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+1
92.9%
Eli Stove run for 1 yd to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 7:20
4TH & 3
OWN 38
+5
93.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
94.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+11
94.5%
Kam Martin run for 11 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+1
95.4%
Jarrett Stidham run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 3
50
0
95.9%
Aidan Marshall punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20DOWNS
13 plays · 43 yds · 2:564% → 2%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
95.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 9 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+4
95.4%
Josh Jacobs run for 4 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
95.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 3 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
95.5%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Irv Smith Jr.Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+8
95.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 8 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
95.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+26
95.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 26 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
96.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Josh Jacobs for no gain to the Aub 30Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-5
96.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Matt Womack) to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 15
OPP 35
-7
96.6%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Nick Coe for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 42Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 22
OPP 42
0
97.9%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 22
OPP 41
-4
98.0%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the Aub 41 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (-5 Yards) to the Aub 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:1398% → 99%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
97.7%
Kam Martin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 44Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 12
OWN 44
0
98.0%
Kam Martin run for no gain to the Aub 44Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
98.1%
Kam Martin run for no gain to the Aub 44Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
98.5%
Aidan Marshall punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · 65 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+65
98.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Cam Sims for 65 yds to the Aub 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:02
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+22.7
TD · Q4 12:49
Jarrett Stidham run for 16 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+13.3
TD · Q3 13:22
Bo Scarbrough run for 21 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)
-12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com