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UGA

Georgia 17 at Auburn 40

AUB
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreUGA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:58 · Aidan Marshall punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Geo 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Home team on offense+26.3Score differential+19.2Pregame prior−3.8Garbage-time factor+9.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:21: Nick Chubb 1 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick) — UGA win probability +1.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 12:03: Daniel Carlson 30 Yd Field Goal — AUB win probability +1.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:09: Darius Slayton 42 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Daniel Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +9.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:57: Jarrett Stidham 7 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +11.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:12: Ryan Davis 32 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Daniel Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +9.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UGA made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 8:19AUB 4th & 7 at UGA 37, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.2%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:55UGA 4th & 19 at UGA 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−1.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:20AUB 4th & 16 at UGA 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    42.0%−3.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:44UGA 4th & 3 at AUB 46, up 1
    Close callPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    53.0%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:03AUB 4th & 10 at UGA 13, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:17UGA 4th & 21 at UGA 17, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−2.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:07AUB 4th & 18 at AUB 25, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−2.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:12UGA 4th & 2 at UGA 42, down 2
    Close callPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:37UGA 4th & 15 at AUB 46, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    33.3%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:22AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 14, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−3.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:22AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 47, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:46UGA 4th & 22 at UGA 27, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:23UGA 4th & 9 at AUB 30, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:58AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 23, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:05UGA 4th & 7 at UGA 48, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:06AUB 4th & 10 at UGA 20, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−1.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:13UGA 4th & 10 at UGA 21, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:38UGA 4th & 7 at AUB 31, down 30
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:31UGA 4th & 1 at AUB 15, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UGA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:21UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:09AUB Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:57AUB Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:12AUB Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:13AUB Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:19UGA Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UGADrive 1TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:3463% → 63%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
37.5%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Geo 31Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+2
37.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Charlie Woerner for 2 yds to the Geo 33Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+28
37.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Javon Wims for 28 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+26
37.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 26 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
38.0%
Sony Michel run for 7 yds to the Aub 6Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+5
38.1%
Sony Michel run for 5 yds to the Aub 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
38.2%
Sony Michel run for no gain to the Aub 1Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.1%
Nick Chubb 1 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:4638% → 39%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
37.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 21Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+13
37.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 13 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
37.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 7 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+19
38.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 19 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
38.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Geo 37Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
38.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
38.0%
Jarrett Stidham run for no gain to the Geo 37Similar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+54
39.1%
Daniel Carlson 54 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:4661% → 60%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
38.8%
Nick Chubb run for 6 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+6
38.6%
Nick Chubb run for 6 yds to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
38.7%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the Geo 35Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
38.9%
Sony Michel run for no gain to the Geo 35Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 9
OWN 35
-10
39.4%
Jake Fromm sacked by Jeff Holland for a loss of 10 yards to the Geo 25Similar
Q1 4:55
4TH & 19
OWN 25
0
40.1%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4FG
14 plays · 41 yds · 3:2740% → 41%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
39.7%
Ryan Davis pass incomplete to Jarrett StidhamSimilar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
39.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Devan Barrett for 8 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+4
40.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
40.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Geo 45Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+5
40.8%
GEORGIA Penalty, Encroachment (Julian Rochester) to the Geo 40Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
40.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+7
40.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 7 yds to the Geo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
41.5%
Jarrett Stidham run for 9 yds to the Geo 24Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+10
41.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 10 yds to the Geo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
41.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 15Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
41.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete, broken up by D'Andre WalkerSimilar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 11
OPP 15
-5
41.0%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Darius James) to the Geo 20Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 16
OPP 20
0
40.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Will Hastings, broken up by Roquan SmithSimilar
Q1 1:20
4TH & 16
OPP 20
+37
40.8%
Daniel Carlson 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1360% → 60%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
39.8%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+2
39.6%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
39.8%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Isaac Nauta, broken up by Stephen RobertsSimilar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
40.5%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6FG
10 plays · 78 yds · 2:2542% → 47%
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+19
41.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for 19 yds to the Aub 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
41.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 14 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
43.2%
Stidham, Jarrett pass incomplete to Stove, Eli, PENALTY GEORGIA substitution infraction 5 yards to the AUBURN47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 5
OPP 45
+23
43.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 8 yds to the AUBURN 45 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Malkom Parrish) to the Geo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
44.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Chandler Cox for 17 yds to the Geo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
44.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Geo 12Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 9
OPP 12
-1
45.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 13Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
45.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
46.7%
Daniel Carlson 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:3255% → 53%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
45.4%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Riley RidleySimilar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
45.7%
Nick Chubb run for no gain to the Geo 28Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-11
46.5%
Jake Fromm sacked by Marlon Davidson and Derrick Brown for a loss of 11 yards to the Geo 17Similar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 21
OWN 17
0
47.5%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:3647% → 46%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
46.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Devan Barrett for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+3
46.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-9
46.2%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by D'Andre Walker for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 18
OWN 25
+10
46.2%
Aidan Marshall punt for 51 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for 10 yds to the Geo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3454% → 53%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
46.3%
Mecole Hardman run for 7 yds to the Geo 41Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+2
45.1%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Geo 43Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-1
45.4%
Sony Michel run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 42Similar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 2
OWN 42
+28
47.2%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the AUBURN 15 GEORGIA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Jayson Stanley) to the Aub 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 1:5549% → 61%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
49.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-4
50.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
48.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Ryan DavisSimilar
Q2 5:08
4TH & 8
OWN 31
+15
47.8%
GEORGIA Penalty, Personal Foul (D'Andre Walker) to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
52.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 11 yds to the AUBURN 43 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Darius Slayton) to the Aub 47Similar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 9
OWN 47
+11
52.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 11 yds to the Geo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
61.2%
Darius Slayton 42 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:2341% → 38%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
59.3%
Sony Michel run for 2 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
59.5%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Javon WimsSimilar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+30
60.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Javon Wims for 30 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-6
57.8%
Jake Fromm sacked by Deshaun Davis for a loss of 6 yards to the Aub 47Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 16
OPP 47
+1
59.7%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Aub 46Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 15
OPP 46
0
60.8%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Javon WimsSimilar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
62.0%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0761% → 62%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
61.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the Aub 10Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+3
61.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+1
63.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 1 yd to the Aub 14Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+30
62.0%
Aidan Marshall punt for 42 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for 30 yds to the Aub 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13DOWNS
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:1740% → 38%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
59.6%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
60.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+42
61.8%
Rodrigo Blankenship 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14FUMBLE
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:3163% → 64%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
63.3%
Eli Stove run for 14 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
65.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
66.2%
Eli Stove run for 2 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
65.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+3
64.4%
Aidan Marshall punt for 33 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for 3 yds to the Geo 23 Mecole Hardman fumbled, recovered by Aub Darrell WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:1668% → 79%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
67.5%
Eli Stove run for 9 yds to the Geo 14Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+2
67.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Geo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
67.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Geo 7Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
79.2%
Jarrett Stidham 7 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 2:5824% → 19%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.3%
Sony Michel run for 6 yds to the Geo 31Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
76.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Charlie Woerner for 3 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
77.1%
Fromm, Jake pass complete to Michel, Sony for no gain to the GEORGIA34, PENALTY AUBURN offside (Holland, Jeff) 4 yards to the GEORGIA38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
77.2%
Jake Fromm sacked by Dontavius Russell for a loss of 10 yards to the Geo 28 Jake Fromm fumbled, forced by Dontavius Russell, recovered by Geo Kendall Baker , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 20
OWN 28
+4
80.2%
D'Andre Swift run for 4 yds to the Geo 32Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 17
OWN 32
0
81.0%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Javon WimsSimilar
Q3 8:59
4TH & 17
OWN 32
-5
81.1%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Geo 27Similar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 22
OWN 27
+26
81.4%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 48 yds , Ryan Davis returns for 26 yds to the Geo 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 0:3483% → 93%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
83.2%
GEORGIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Sony Michel) to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
83.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Geo 32Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+32
93.1%
Ryan Davis 32 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:387% → 7%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.1%
Nick Chubb run for no gain to the Geo 25Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 6 yds to the Geo 31Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+38
93.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Javon Wims for 38 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
93.0%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Mecole HardmanSimilar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
93.4%
D'Andre Swift run for 1 yd to the Aub 30Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
93.9%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+47
93.4%
Rodrigo Blankenship 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:2095% → 95%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
94.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 22Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+9
94.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 9 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
94.9%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Marquel Harrell) to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-3
95.1%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Aaron Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 23Similar
Q3 2:58
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
94.9%
Aidan Marshall punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Geo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:465% → 4%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
95.1%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Geo 48Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
95.6%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to D'Andre Swift, broken up by Montavious AtkinsonSimilar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
95.7%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Javon WimsSimilar
Q3 2:05
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
95.8%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21FG
14 plays · 77 yds · 6:5396% → 99%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
95.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 9 yds to the Aub 12Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 1
OWN 12
+5
95.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Aub 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
96.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q3 0:13
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+5
97.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 5 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+5
97.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
97.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+30
97.8%
Eli Stove run for 30 yds to the Geo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
98.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Geo 30Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+10
98.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for 10 yds to the Geo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
98.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Geo 18Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+6
98.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Geo 12Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 2
OPP 12
-3
98.4%
Jarrett Stidham run for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 15 Jarrett Stidham fumbled, recovered by Aub Kerryon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 5
OPP 15
-5
98.3%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Geo 20Similar
Q4 10:06
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
98.5%
Daniel Carlson 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:442% → 1%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
98.5%
Jake Fromm pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
98.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Brian Herrien for no gain to the Geo 21Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
98.7%
Jake Fromm pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 10
OWN 21
+5
98.7%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 58 yds , Stephen Roberts returns for 5 yds to the Aub 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 2:5299% → 100%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
98.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+8
98.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 8 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
99.0%
Jarrett Stidham run for 2 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+55
99.9%
Kerryon Johnson 55 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 24TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 3:450% → 1%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
99.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 15 yds to the Geo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Riley RidleySimilar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+10
99.9%
D'Andre Swift run for 10 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.9%
Jake Fromm run for 4 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+11
99.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 11 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Isaac NautaSimilar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
99.9%
D'Andre Swift run for 3 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Riley RidleySimilar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+7
99.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 7 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Mecole Hardman, broken up by Jeremiah DinsonSimilar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
99.9%
Elijah Holyfield run for 5 yds to the Aub 19Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+4
99.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Javon Wims for 4 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+1
99.9%
Elijah Holyfield run for 1 yd to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.3%
Riley Ridley 14 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:5999% → 100%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.4%
Malik Willis run for 5 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+37
99.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Marquis McClain for 37 yds to the Geo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
99.6%
Kam Martin run for 1 yd to the Geo 32Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+6
99.7%
Kam Martin run for 6 yds to the Geo 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:57
Jarrett Stidham 7 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)
+11.4
TD · Q3 8:12
Ryan Davis 32 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Daniel Carlson Kick)
+9.7
TD · Q2 4:09
Darius Slayton 42 Yd pass from Jarrett Stidham (Daniel Carlson Kick)
+9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com