Air Force

Profile vs. FBS, 2019

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2389th
  Defense+0.0767th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense53.1%98th
  Defense39.9%74th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+0.981st
  Defense+1.2532nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1784th
  Defense−0.0995th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.5998th
  Defense+0.2139th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense57.9%98th
  Defense46.7%59th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense36.1%71st
  Defense27.0%92nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3994th
  Defense2.7171st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense12.8%99th
  Defense17.0%22nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense12.5%99th
  Defense20.8%60th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2019

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Air Force allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   COLG
2. W
   COLO
3. L
   BOIS
4. W
   SJSU
5. L
   NAVY
6. W
   FRES
7. W
   HAW
8. W
   USU
9. W
   ARMY
10. W
    CSU
11. W
    UNM
12. W
    WYO
13. W
    WSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Air Force.

Players, 2019

1. Donald Hammond IIIQB214 plays · +0.338 pts/play · 50th of 228 QBs
   1.35WAR0.90 to 1.79
2. Kadin RemsbergRB171 plays · +0.230 pts/play · 20th of 349 RBs
   0.74WAR0.55 to 0.94
3. Timothy JacksonFB102 plays · +0.228 pts/play · 83rd of 349 RBs
   0.44WAR0.35 to 0.51
4. Taven BirdowFB149 plays · +0.153 pts/play · 88th of 349 RBs
   0.43WAR0.29 to 0.56
5. Geraud SandersWR50 plays · +0.196 pts/play · 83rd of 439 WRs
   0.18WAR0.11 to 0.26
6. Jake KoehnkePK13 plays · +0.527 pts/play · 47th of 114 kickers
   0.13WAR0.10 to 0.16
7. Isaiah SandersQB14 plays · +0.276 pts/play · 210th of 228 QBs
   0.07WAR0.04 to 0.11
8. Charlie ScottP28 plays · +0.036 pts/play · 85th of 100 punters
   0.02WAR−0.01 to 0.05

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Air Force's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2019

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  152152130th of 130Roster talent: 152, 130th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  118118117th of 130Recruiting: 118, 117th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  64%64%59th of 130Returning production: 64%, 59th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +12.1+12.125th of 130SP+ rating: +12.1, 25th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2019

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Air Force's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.03 of the 0.08 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs WYOQ4 13:08 4th & 1 at AF 34, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
2. at COLOQ3 8:04 4th & 2 at AF 39, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
3. vs ARMYQ4 3:49 4th & 7 at ARMY 45, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
4. at BOISQ3 12:02 4th & 3 at BOIS 49, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
5. vs ARMYQ2 8:08 4th & 2 at ARMY 2, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. at BOISQ3 6:29 4th & 3 at BOIS 14, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
7. vs USUQ2 0:00 4th & 14 at USU 39, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.5 pts
8. vs WYOQ4 0:32 4th & 13 at WYO 23, up 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2019

9th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Air Force's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   COLG
2. W

   COLO
3. L

   BOIS
4. W

   SJSU
5. L

   NAVY
6. W

   FRES
7. W

   HAW
8. W

   USU
9. W

   ARMY
10. W

    CSU
11. W

    UNM
12. W

    WYO
13. W

    WSU

What moved it, 2019

Every game starts at Air Force's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+2.57
• Possession & field position−0.03
• Clock−0.09
• Timeouts+0.20
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.73

Game by game

• COLGW 48-7 vs COLG95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +8
• COLOW 30-23 at COLO38% → 83%Before kickoff −12 · On the field +45: Scoreboard +39, Timeouts +19
• BOISL 19-30 at BOIS31% → 3%Before kickoff −19 · On the field −28: Scoreboard −31, Possession & field position −1
• SJSUW 41-24 vs SJSU90% → 99%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +16, Timeouts +1
• NAVYL 25-34 at NAVY59% → 6%Before kickoff +9 · On the field −53: Scoreboard −36, Possession & field position −2
• FRESW 43-24 vs FRES60% → 99%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +39, Timeouts −1
• HAWW 56-26 at HAW59% → 100%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +41: Scoreboard +46, Clock +1
• USUW 31-7 vs USU59% → 100%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts −1
• ARMYW 17-13 vs ARMY87% → 94%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +19, Timeouts +1
• CSUW 38-21 at CSU77% → 97%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +34, Clock +1
• UNMW 44-22 at UNM93% → 99%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +13, Clock +1
• WYOW 20-6 vs WYO81% → 98%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +22, Timeouts +1
• WSUW 31-21 at WSU57% → 97%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +47, Clock +3

Points of win probability, from Air Force's side.

Closest call

AF 41-38 SJSU (2016) - Air Force dropped to a 10.7% win probability before pulling it out.