Try the model
SJSU

San José State 24 at Air Force 41

AF
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2019 · Falcon Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:51 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:50: DeJon Packer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +2.1 pts (now 12%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:43: Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 64 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +4.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:13: Taven Birdow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +3.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:05: Christian Mallard run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke PAT BLOCKED) — AF win probability +4.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:10: Christian Mallard run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +3.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 4:57SJSU 4th & 1 at AF 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    13.6%−0.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00AF 4th & 9 at AF 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:33SJSU 4th & 5 at AF 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    16.1%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:28AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.3%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:43SJSU 4th & 22 at SJSU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:48SJSU 4th & 8 at AF 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:58SJSU 4th & 1 at AF 1, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:13SJSU 4th & 7 at AF 12, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:45AF 4th & 1 at AF 22, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:50SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:57AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:43AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:13AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:05AF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:10AF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:48AF Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:51SJSU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:52SJSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1010% → 12%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
89.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 7 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
89.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Nick Nash for 4 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
89.9%
Josh Love pass complete to DeJon Packer for 4 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+7
89.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 7 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
89.9%
Nick Nash run for 6 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+5
89.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+30
89.9%
Josh Love pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 18 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (12 Yards) to the AFA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
89.9%
DeJon Packer run for 5 yds to the AFA 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+6
89.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 6 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.8%
DeJon Packer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:5388% → 87%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
88.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 1 yd to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
88.1%
Taven Birdow run for 8 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+17
88.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for 17 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
88.3%
Timothy Jackson run for 6 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+3
88.3%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
88.3%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the SJSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
88.3%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+9
88.3%
Donald Hammond III run for 9 yds to the SJSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+1
88.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 11 yds to the SJSt 14 AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SJSt 24Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-1
88.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 25Similar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
88.3%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Sailosi Latu) to the SJSt 11Similar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 5
OPP 11
+4
88.3%
Timothy Jackson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 7Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+7
87.4%
Timothy Jackson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3DOWNS
13 plays · 60 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
86.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 7 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
86.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 12 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
86.3%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
86.4%
DeJon Packer run for 1 yd to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+22
86.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Brett Foley for 22 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
86.0%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Nick Nash, broken up by Grant TheilSimilar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
86.0%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 5 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+5
86.2%
Nick Nash run for 5 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
86.0%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
86.0%
DeJon Packer run for 6 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+3
86.2%
Josh Love pass complete to DeJon Packer for 3 yds to the AFA 14Similar
Q1 4:57
4TH & 1
OPP 14
-1
86.4%
DeJon Packer run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4585% → 84%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
85.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+3
85.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 21
-5
84.7%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
84.6%
Donald Hammond III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 16
+52
84.4%
Charlie Scott punt for 42 yds SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the SJSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 43 yds · 4:1616% → 18%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
84.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 7 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+9
83.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Billy Humphreys for 9 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
83.7%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre Walker, broken up by Zane LewisSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+11
83.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 11 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
83.5%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
83.5%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+7
83.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Tyler Nevens for 7 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
83.3%
Nick Nash run for 3 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+2
83.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
83.5%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 5
OPP 25
0
82.4%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey Gaither, broken up by Milton Bugg IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4584% → 88%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.8%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
83.9%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
83.5%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
83.4%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
87.5%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 64 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.9%
Josh Love run for 2 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
86.9%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-7
87.2%
Josh Love sacked by Jordan Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 13 Josh Love fumbled, recovered by SJSt Tyler Nevens , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
87.6%
Alex Galland punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:5988% → 92%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
88.2%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+6
88.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 6 yds to the SJSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
88.3%
Donald Hammond III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
88.3%
Christian Mallard run for 2 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+9
87.9%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Ben Peterson for 9 yds to the SJSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
88.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 5 yds to the SJSt 10Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+6
88.3%
Christian Mallard run for 6 yds to the SJSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
88.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the SJSt 1Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.7%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:259% → 11%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.6%
DeJon Packer run for 3 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
90.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 9 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
90.5%
DeJon Packer run for 6 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+13
90.0%
Josh Love pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 13 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+35
89.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 35 yds to the AFA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
89.4%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q2 3:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
89.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the AFA 8Similar
Q2 3:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
89.8%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q2 0:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
88.9%
Matt Mercurio 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10FUMBLE
11 plays · 56 yds · 0:2790% → 90%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+32
90.1%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 32 yds to the SJSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
90.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+12
90.2%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 12 yds to the SJSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
90.2%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+6
89.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 6 yds to the SJSt 12Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+8
89.4%
Taven Birdow run for 8 yds to the SJSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
89.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
89.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 9 Kadin Remsberg fumbled, recovered by SJSt Jesse OsunaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
89.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5589% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.9%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
89.0%
Taven Birdow run for 7 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
89.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
88.9%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+14
88.5%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Kade Waguespack for 14 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
89.6%
Christian Mallard run for 5 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+43
89.6%
Joshua Stoner run for 43 yds to the SJSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.8%
Christian Mallard run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:5394% → 98%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
93.8%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+3
93.8%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the SJSt 13Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+6
93.6%
Donald Hammond III run for 6 yds to the SJSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
93.8%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the SJSt 4Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
93.8%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the SJSt 2 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) to the SJSt 2Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
93.8%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 7Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.5%
Christian Mallard run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14DOWNS
14 plays · 64 yds · 4:123% → 2%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.1%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
97.1%
Nick Nash run for 6 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+11
97.1%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 11 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
97.0%
Nick Nash pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 11 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
97.0%
Nick Nash run for no gain to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+28
97.0%
Nick Nash pass complete to Tre Walker for 28 yds to the AFA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
96.7%
Isaiah Holiness run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 13Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+11
96.8%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre Walker for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Zane Lewis) to the AFA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
96.7%
DeJon Packer run for 1 yd to the AFA 1Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.7%
Nick Nash run for no gain to the AFA 1Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.9%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q3 5:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.7%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 56 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
98.1%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 4Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+7
98.1%
Taven Birdow run for 7 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
98.1%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+23
98.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 23 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+42
98.3%
Christian Mallard run for 10 yds to the AFA 15 Christian Mallard fumbled, forced by Tre Webb, recovered by SJSt Nehemiah Shelton for a 1ST down , return for 27 yds to the AIRFORCE 34 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:062% → 1%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
97.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 8 yds to the AFA 7Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 2
OPP 7
0
97.9%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the AFA 7Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 2
OPP 7
0
98.1%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre Walker, broken up by Lakota WillsSimilar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 2
OPP 7
-5
98.1%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 12Similar
Q3 2:13
4TH & 7
OPP 12
0
98.6%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
16 plays · 88 yds · 9:1999% → 100%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
98.8%
Taven Birdow run for 8 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 2
OWN 20
-7
98.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 6 yds to the AFA 26 AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (-13 Yards) to the AFA 13Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+3
98.8%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+8
98.8%
Donald Hammond III run for 8 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
99.0%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+17
99.0%
Taven Birdow run for 17 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.0%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+5
99.0%
Christian Mallard run for 5 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+4
99.0%
Christian Mallard run for 4 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
99.0%
Christian Mallard run for 14 yds to the SJSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
99.1%
Christian Mallard run for 6 yds to the SJSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+2
99.1%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the SJSt 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+12
99.1%
Taven Birdow run for 12 yds to the SJSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.1%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the SJSt 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.1%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the SJSt 3Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:570% → 1%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
100.0%
Nick Nash run for 19 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
100.0%
Nick Nash pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 7 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
100.0%
Nick Nash run for 2 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+5
100.0%
Nick Nash run for 5 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
100.0%
Nick Nash pass incomplete to JaQuan Blackwell, broken up by James Jones IVSimilar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+9
100.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 9 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+3
100.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.5%
Nick Nash pass complete to Andre Crump for 30 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
99.5%
Matthew Murla run for 4 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+3
99.5%
Matthew Murla run for 3 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+2
99.5%
Matthew Murla run for 2 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
99.5%
Mike Schmidt run for no gain to the AFA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:431% → 2%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
99.5%
Nick Nash run for 10 yds to the AFA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
99.5%
Nick Nash run for 6 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 4
OPP 6
0
99.5%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
98.0%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 23Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 15
OWN 23
-2
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:05
Christian Mallard run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke PAT BLOCKED)
+4.2
TD · Q2 8:43
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 64 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q3 10:10
Christian Mallard run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)
+3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com