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AF

Air Force 48 at UNLV 51

UNLV
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Jacob Medina 40 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 11:26: Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds for a TD (K. Lee Run For Two-point Conversion) — UNLV win probability +28.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 6:09: Cade Harris run for 4 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK) — AF win probability +37.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:55: Jai'Den Thomas run for 51 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK) — UNLV win probability +32.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:13: Liam Szarka run for 9 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK) — AF win probability +55.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:36: Anthony Colandrea run for 19 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK) — UNLV win probability +65.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 4 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:33UNLV 4th & 4 at UNLV 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:54AF 4th & 2 at UNLV 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    31.2%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:54UNLV 4th & 11 at UNLV 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:31AF 4th & 2 at AF 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:33UNLV 4th & 4 at AF 27, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.5%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:35UNLV 4th & 3 at AF 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.2%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:55AF 4th & 3 at UNLV 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    40.2%−1.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    39.0%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:50UNLV 4th & 6 at AF 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−5.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:18AF 4th & 9 at AF 26, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:25UNLV 4th & 2 at AF 2, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.2%−3.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−18.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:20AF 4th & 1 at UNLV 1, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%−6.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−21.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:32AF 4th & 5 at UNLV 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.0%−4.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 4 of 5AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 4:10UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:50AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:17AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:26AF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:49UNLV Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:08AF Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:20AF Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    61.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:26UNLV Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:09AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:55UNLV Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.5
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:13AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.6
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:36UNLV Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1269% → 69%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
69.0%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 6 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
68.9%
Anthony Colandrea run for no gain to the UNLV 36Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
68.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Daejon ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
68.8%
Cameron Brown punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:3331% → 32%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
68.8%
UNLV Penalty, Face Mask (16 yards) (16 Yards) to the AF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
68.6%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Bruin FleischmannSimilar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
68.6%
Kade Frew run for 6 yds to the AF 49Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+6
68.4%
Matt Long run for 6 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
68.2%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+4
68.0%
Liam Szarka run for 4 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+2
67.9%
Cade Harris run for 2 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 2
OPP 37
0
68.1%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Adam HrynciwSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:5169% → 68%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
68.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to JoJo Earle for 4 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
68.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to JoJo EarleSimilar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
68.4%
(09:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Colandrea,Anthony pass complete deep right to Omeire,Troy caught at USAFA20, for 59 yards to the USAFA00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 09:08 PENALTY USAFA Roughing The Passer offsetting UNLV Pass Interference offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-5
68.4%
PENALTY UNLV False Start (Bradley,Jaden) 5 yards from UNLV41 to UNLV36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
68.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Nick ElksnisSimilar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
67.7%
Cameron Brown punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Cade Harris at the AF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 3:0832% → 32%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
68.0%
Owen Allen run for 6 yds to the AF 19Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+6
67.9%
Liam Szarka run for 6 yds to the AF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.7%
Liam Szarka run for 5 yds to the AF 30Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
67.4%
Liam Szarka run for 4 yds to the AF 34Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
67.3%
Owen Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the AF 33Similar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+2
67.6%
Luke Freer punt for 37 yds , DeAngelo Irvin Jr. returns for 2 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5TD
3 plays · 68 yds · 1:0068% → 72%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+56
67.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 56 yds to the AF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
68.7%
Anthony Colandrea run for 9 yds to the AF 3Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
72.0%
Anthony Colandrea run for 3 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1229% → 35%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.9%
Liam Szarka run for 5 yds to the AF 30Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+22
70.7%
Liam Szarka run for 22 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+35
69.9%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Jonah Dawson for 35 yds to the UNLV 13 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
69.1%
Liam Szarka run for 2 yds to the UNLV 11Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
69.1%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Bruin FleischmannSimilar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+6
69.7%
PENALTY UNLV UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Welch,Laterrance) 6 yards from UNLV11 to UNLV05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
64.6%
Cade Harris run for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 3:0067% → 68%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
67.1%
Kayden McGee run for 4 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+22
67.1%
Keyvone Lee run for 22 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
68.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Kayden McGeeSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+22
67.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Koy Moore for 22 yds to the AF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
68.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Koy Moore for 5 yds to the AF 28Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
68.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Jaden BradleySimilar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+1
68.1%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the AF 27Similar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+45
68.0%
Ramon Villela 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 3:0432% → 40%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
67.8%
Liam Szarka run for 10 yds to the AF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
67.0%
Liam Szarka run for 5 yds to the AF 45Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
66.5%
Liam Szarka run for 4 yds to the AF 49Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-5
66.5%
(12:06) PENALTY USAFA False Start (Spencer,Gage) 5 yards from USAFA49 to USAFA44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+18
66.8%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 18 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
66.0%
Cade Harris run for 2 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
59.7%
Owen Allen run for 21 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:2662% → 61%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
62.3%
Jaylon Glover run for 4 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+19
61.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 19 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
63.4%
UNLV Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNLV 38Similar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 17
OWN 38
+7
61.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 7 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
61.5%
Anthony Colandrea run for 7 yds to the AF 48Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
62.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Taeshaun LyonsSimilar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
61.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to DeAngelo Irvin Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 3:0042% → 54%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
58.1%
Cade Harris run for 13 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
57.4%
Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the UNLV 38Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+2
57.1%
Liam Szarka run for 2 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+4
57.2%
Liam Szarka run for 4 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+4
58.3%
Liam Szarka run for 4 yds to the UNLV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
46.5%
Owen Allen run for 28 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 3:2547% → 50%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
46.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Troy Omeire for 10 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
46.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Jai'Den ThomasSimilar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
46.6%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+27
46.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 27 yds to the AF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
48.8%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 8 yds to the AF 25Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+1
48.4%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the AF 24Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+6
47.0%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 6 yds to the AF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
48.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 3 yds to the AF 15Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+1
48.3%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the AF 14Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
47.3%
UNLV Penalty, Face Mask (0 yards) (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
49.6%
Ramon Villela 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:4453% → 57%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
46.6%
Owen Allen run for 15 yds to the AF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
44.2%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Cade HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
43.3%
Kade Frew run for 5 yds to the AF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
44.1%
Cade Harris run for a loss of 9 yards to the AF 16 Cade Harris fumbled, recovered by AF Marsel McduffieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14TD
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
65.3%
Jaden Bradley pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 16 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)Similar
Q3 14:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
65.3%
PENALTY UNLV False Start (Reynolds,Daejon) 5 yards from USAFA03 to USAFA08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:2441% → 40%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.6%
Owen Allen run for 6 yds to the AF 31Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-15
57.1%
(14:19) Harris,Cade rush left for 4 yards gain to the USAFA35 (Borders,Chief) PENALTY USAFA Chop Block (Smith,Brody) 15 yards from USAFA31 to USAFA16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+3
58.8%
Kade Frew run for 3 yds to the AF 19Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+7
59.9%
Cade Harris run for 7 yds to the AF 26Similar
Q3 13:18
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
60.4%
Luke Freer punt for 59 yds , DeAngelo Irvin Jr. returns for no gain to the UNLV 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5330% → 47%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.8%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 6 yds to the AF 31Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
68.7%
Liam Szarka run for 2 yds to the AF 33Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+43
69.3%
Owen Allen run for 43 yds to the UNLV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
65.0%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+3
64.9%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+17
53.0%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 17 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17TD
1 play · 86 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+86
58.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 86 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18FG
11 plays · 73 yds · 4:3758% → 68%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
57.6%
Air Force Penalty, (15 Yards) to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
60.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 6 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+18
61.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Troy Omeire for 18 yds to the AF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
62.8%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 5 yds to the AF 28Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+2
62.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 2 yds to the AF 26Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+22
60.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Taeshaun Lyons for 18 yds to the AF 8 for a 1ST down Air Force Penalty, (4 Yards) to the AF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
62.5%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the AF 3Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
62.3%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the AF 2Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
60.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Jaden BradleySimilar
Q3 5:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
67.8%
Ramon Villela 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:5734% → 64%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.7%
Owen Allen run for 4 yds to the AF 29Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
64.5%
Cade Harris run for 10 yds to the AF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
63.0%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 12 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
61.0%
Kade Frew run for 9 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+3
60.4%
Liam Szarka run for 3 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
60.8%
Cade Harris run for 2 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+21
59.3%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Jonah Dawson for 21 yds to the UNLV 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
58.6%
Owen Allen run for 11 yds to the UNLV 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
58.5%
Cade Harris run for 2 yds to the UNLV 1Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.0%
Liam Szarka run for no gain to the UNLV 1Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.7%
Liam Szarka run for no gain to the UNLV 1Similar
Q4 14:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.2%
Liam Szarka run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4742% → 77%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
41.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 8 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+15
44.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 15 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
45.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Jaden BradleySimilar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
45.1%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the UNLV 49Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+24
41.8%
Anthony Colandrea run for 24 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
48.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 14 yds to the AF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
48.0%
(11:32) Shotgun Colandrea,Anthony pass incomplete short middle to Bradley,Jaden thrown to USAFA00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USAFA Pass Interference (Johnson,Korey) 11 yard from USAFA13 to USAFA02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.7%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds for a TD (K. Lee Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0931% → 77%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
69.5%
Liam Szarka run for 9 yds to the AF 34Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
66.0%
Owen Allen run for 7 yds to the AF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
66.5%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Cade HarrisSimilar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+13
67.4%
Kade Frew run for 13 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
63.5%
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+7
63.5%
Cade Harris run for 7 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
63.4%
Owen Allen run for 17 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
61.0%
Owen Allen run for 9 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+4
59.8%
Matt Long run for 4 yds to the UNLV 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
60.2%
Liam Szarka run for 2 yds to the UNLV 4Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
22.9%
Cade Harris run for 4 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0538% → 77%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
37.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 18 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
41.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to JoJo EarleSimilar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+16
39.8%
PENALTY USAFA UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Johnson,Korey) 16 yards from UNLV43 to USAFA41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
44.1%
(05:27) Shotgun Thomas,Jai'Den rush middle for 10 yards gain to the USAFA31 (Jones,Roger; Swartz,Aiden) PENALTY UNLV Holding (McGowan,Malik) 10 yards from USAFA41 to UNLV49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+51
77.0%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 51 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:3430% → 93%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.8%
Liam Szarka run for 4 yds to the AF 29Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
68.3%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 17 yds to the AF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
64.6%
Liam Szarka run for 5 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
63.1%
Cade Harris run for no gain to the UNLV 49Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
66.1%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Cade HarrisSimilar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 5
OPP 49
+15
72.3%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Kade Frew for 15 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
66.3%
Owen Allen run for 7 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+13
64.1%
Owen Allen run for 13 yds to the UNLV 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
61.6%
Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the UNLV 12Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+1
62.0%
Liam Szarka run for 1 yd to the UNLV 11Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+7
65.3%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun Harris,Cade rush left for 2 yards gain to the UNLV09 (Pope,Jake; Bin-Wahad,Mumu) PENALTY UNLV Face Mask (Bin-Wahad,Mumu) 7 yards from UNLV11 to UNLV04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
62.9%
(01:19) PENALTY USAFA False Start (Tate,Trevor) 5 yards from UNLV04 to UNLV09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
7.2%
Liam Szarka run for 9 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:3222% → 93%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
21.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 6 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+27
23.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 27 yds to the AF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
28.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 14 yds to the AF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
32.7%
Anthony Colandrea run for no gain to the AF 28Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
27.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 9 yds to the AF 19Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+19
93.0%
Anthony Colandrea run for 19 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25MISSED FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 0:3223% → 32%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.3%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Cade HarrisSimilar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
77.0%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 11 yds to the AF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
73.3%
Liam Szarka run for 9 yds to the AF 45Similar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+23
71.2%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Jonah Dawson for 23 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
67.0%
Liam Szarka run for 9 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+40
68.1%
Jacob Medina 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:36
Anthony Colandrea run for 19 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)
+65.4
TD · Q4 1:13
Liam Szarka run for 9 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
-55.7
TD · Q4 6:09
Cade Harris run for 4 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
-37.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com