AF
Air Force 48 at UNLV 51
UNLV2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey play
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UNLV · Drive 1PUNT · 5 plays · 6 yds
Q1 14:52
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 60 yds , Jaylon Glover return for 25 yds to the UNLV 30
69.3%
0.0
Q1 14:45
Jai'Den Thomas run for 6 yds to the UNLV 36
71.0%
+1.7
Q1 14:15
Anthony Colandrea run for no gain to the UNLV 36
71.2%
+0.2
Q1 13:45
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Daejon Reynolds
71.2%
0.0
Q1 13:33
Cameron Brown punt for 42 yds
70.9%
-0.3
AF · Drive 2DOWNS · 8 plays · 41 yds
Q1 13:27
UNLV Penalty, Face Mask (16 yards) (16 Yards) to the AF 43 for a 1ST down
68.4%
-2.5
Q1 13:04
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Bruin Fleischmann
67.2%
-1.3
Q1 12:57
Kade Frew run for 6 yds to the AF 49
67.2%
0.0
Q1 12:16
Matt Long run for 6 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST down
66.4%
-0.7
Q1 11:39
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the UNLV 43
66.2%
-0.2
Q1 11:06
Liam Szarka run for 4 yds to the UNLV 39
66.1%
-0.1
Q1 10:28
Cade Harris run for 2 yds to the UNLV 37
66.1%
0.0
Q1 9:54
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Adam Hrynciw
66.8%
+0.7
UNLV · Drive 3PUNT · 6 plays · -1 yds
Q1 9:45
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to JoJo Earle for 4 yds to the UNLV 41
71.2%
+4.4
Q1 9:18
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to JoJo Earle
71.8%
+0.6
Q1 9:08
(09:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Colandrea,Anthony pass complete deep right to Omeire,Troy caught at USAFA20, for 59 yards to the USAFA00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 09:08 PENALTY USAFA Roughing The Passer offsetting UNLV Pass Interference offsetting. NO PLAY.
71.6%
-0.2
Q1 9:08
PENALTY UNLV False Start (Bradley,Jaden) 5 yards from UNLV41 to UNLV36. NO PLAY.
71.6%
0.0
Q1 9:02
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Nick Elksnis
71.3%
-0.3
Q1 8:54
Cameron Brown punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Cade Harris at the AF 13
70.7%
-0.6
AF · Drive 4PUNT · 6 plays · 20 yds
Q1 8:39
Owen Allen run for 6 yds to the AF 19
68.1%
-2.5
Q1 8:11
Liam Szarka run for 6 yds to the AF 25 for a 1ST down
68.2%
+0.1
Q1 7:30
Liam Szarka run for 5 yds to the AF 30
68.2%
0.0
Q1 6:53
Liam Szarka run for 4 yds to the AF 34
68.2%
0.0
Q1 6:11
Owen Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the AF 33
67.5%
-0.7
Q1 5:31
Luke Freer punt for 37 yds , DeAngelo Irvin Jr. returns for 2 yds to the UNLV 32
67.5%
0.0
UNLV · Drive 5TD · 3 plays · 68 yds
Q1 5:10
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 56 yds to the AF 12 for a 1ST down
70.1%
+2.6
Q1 4:43
Anthony Colandrea run for 9 yds to the AF 3
72.2%
+2.0
Q1 4:10
Anthony Colandrea run for 3 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)
82.8%
+10.6
AF · Drive 6TD · 8 plays · 75 yds
Q1 4:10
Caden Costa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
82.1%
-0.7
Q1 4:02
Liam Szarka run for 5 yds to the AF 30
79.3%
-2.8
Q1 3:21
Liam Szarka run for 22 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST down
79.3%
-0.1
Q1 2:47
Liam Szarka pass complete to Jonah Dawson for 35 yds to the UNLV 13 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declined for a 1ST down
78.1%
-1.2
Q1 2:24
Liam Szarka run for 2 yds to the UNLV 11
77.4%
-0.7
Q1 1:54
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Bruin Fleischmann
77.8%
+0.3
Q1 1:54
PENALTY UNLV UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Welch,Laterrance) 6 yards from UNLV11 to UNLV05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
77.8%
0.0
Q1 1:50
Cade Harris run for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
64.5%
-13.3
UNLV · Drive 7FG · 10 plays · 54 yds
Q1 1:44
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 60 yds , Jaylon Glover return for 14 yds to the UNLV 19
66.9%
+2.4
Q1 1:33
Kayden McGee run for 4 yds to the UNLV 23
69.9%
+3.0
Q1 1:02
Keyvone Lee run for 22 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST down
69.9%
0.0
Q1 0:24
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Kayden McGee
70.7%
+0.8
Q1 0:00
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Koy Moore for 22 yds to the AF 33 for a 1ST down
70.6%
-0.1
Q2 14:44
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Koy Moore for 5 yds to the AF 28
71.7%
+1.1
Q2 14:18
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Jaden Bradley
71.7%
0.0
Q2 14:10
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the AF 27
71.5%
-0.2
Q2 13:33
Ramon Villela 45 yd FG GOOD
75.3%
+3.8
Q2 13:33
Caden Costa kickoff for 60 yds UNLV Penalty, Defensive Offside (Logan Christensen) to the AF 30
69.6%
-5.7
AF · Drive 8TD · 7 plays · 70 yds
Q2 13:21
Liam Szarka run for 10 yds to the AF 40 for a 1ST down
72.5%
+2.9
Q2 12:53
Liam Szarka run for 5 yds to the AF 45
71.8%
-0.7
Q2 12:19
Liam Szarka run for 4 yds to the AF 49
71.1%
-0.7
Q2 12:07
(12:06) PENALTY USAFA False Start (Spencer,Gage) 5 yards from USAFA49 to USAFA44. NO PLAY.
70.9%
-0.2
Q2 11:38
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 18 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST down
71.0%
+0.1
Q2 10:56
Cade Harris run for 2 yds to the UNLV 36
69.9%
-1.1
Q2 10:17
Owen Allen run for 21 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
55.6%
-14.4
UNLV · Drive 9DOWNS · 8 plays · 30 yds
Q2 10:11
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds , Jaylon Glover return for 22 yds to the UNLV 22
57.6%
+2.1
Q2 10:01
Jaylon Glover run for 4 yds to the UNLV 26
62.8%
+5.2
Q2 9:30
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 19 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST down
62.8%
0.0
Q2 8:56
UNLV Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNLV 38
63.4%
+0.6
Q2 8:37
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 7 yds to the UNLV 45
63.1%
-0.3
Q2 8:09
Anthony Colandrea run for 7 yds to the AF 48
61.6%
-1.5
Q2 7:39
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Taeshaun Lyons
62.6%
+0.9
Q2 7:35
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to DeAngelo Irvin Jr.
62.6%
0.0
AF · Drive 10TD · 6 plays · 52 yds
Q2 7:26
Cade Harris run for 13 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST down
53.6%
-9.0
Q2 6:50
Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the UNLV 38
53.4%
-0.1
Q2 6:14
Liam Szarka run for 2 yds to the UNLV 36
53.4%
0.0
Q2 5:35
Liam Szarka run for 4 yds to the UNLV 32
53.4%
0.0
Q2 4:55
Liam Szarka run for 4 yds to the UNLV 28 for a 1ST down
54.2%
+0.8
Q2 4:26
Owen Allen run for 28 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
38.2%
-16.0
UNLV · Drive 11FG · 13 plays · 61 yds
Q2 4:26
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
40.2%
+2.0
Q2 4:15
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Troy Omeire for 10 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST down
37.8%
-2.4
Q2 3:51
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Jai'Den Thomas
37.8%
0.0
Q2 3:43
Jai'Den Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 40
37.8%
0.0
Q2 2:56
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 27 yds to the AF 33 for a 1ST down
36.0%
-1.9
Q2 2:26
Jai'Den Thomas run for 8 yds to the AF 25
38.4%
+2.4
Q2 2:01
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the AF 24
38.2%
-0.1
Q2 1:55
Jai'Den Thomas run for 6 yds to the AF 18 for a 1ST down
38.2%
0.0
Q2 1:36
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 3 yds to the AF 15
38.2%
0.0
Q2 1:28
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the AF 14
38.2%
0.0
Q2 0:58
Timeout Air Force, clock 00:58
39.0%
+0.8
Q2 0:53
UNLV Penalty, Face Mask (0 yards) (Yards) declined
39.0%
0.0
Q2 0:50
Ramon Villela 32 yd FG GOOD
46.0%
+7.0
AF · Drive 12END OF HALF · 4 plays · 20 yds
Q2 0:50
Caden Costa kickoff for 65 yds
43.9%
-2.1
Q2 0:44
Owen Allen run for 15 yds to the AF 40 for a 1ST down
41.9%
-2.1
Q2 0:31
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Cade Harris
40.2%
-1.7
Q2 0:00
Kade Frew run for 5 yds to the AF 45
39.6%
-0.6
AF · Drive 13FUMBLE · 2 plays · -9 yds
Q3 15:00
Caden Costa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
44.4%
+4.8
Q3 14:54
Cade Harris run for a loss of 9 yards to the AF 16 Cade Harris fumbled, recovered by AF Marsel Mcduffie
41.7%
-2.7
UNLV · Drive 14TD · 2 plays · 16 yds
Q3 14:49
Jaden Bradley pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 16 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)
66.3%
+24.7
Q3 14:49
PENALTY UNLV False Start (Reynolds,Daejon) 5 yards from USAFA03 to USAFA08. NO PLAY.
47.0%
-19.3
AF · Drive 15PUNT · 6 plays · 1 yds
Q3 14:49
Caden Costa kickoff for 65 yds
63.7%
+16.6
Q3 14:42
Owen Allen run for 6 yds to the AF 31
58.1%
-5.6
Q3 14:15
(14:19) Harris,Cade rush left for 4 yards gain to the USAFA35 (Borders,Chief) PENALTY USAFA Chop Block (Smith,Brody) 15 yards from USAFA31 to USAFA16. NO PLAY.
58.1%
0.0
Q3 13:54
Kade Frew run for 3 yds to the AF 19
58.1%
0.0
Q3 13:47
Cade Harris run for 7 yds to the AF 26
57.6%
-0.5
Q3 13:18
Luke Freer punt for 59 yds , DeAngelo Irvin Jr. returns for no gain to the UNLV 14
57.6%
0.0
AF · Drive 16TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q3 13:07
Caden Costa kickoff for 65 yds
80.1%
+22.5
Q3 13:01
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 6 yds to the AF 31
76.0%
-4.1
Q3 12:21
Liam Szarka run for 2 yds to the AF 33
76.0%
0.0
Q3 11:59
Owen Allen run for 43 yds to the UNLV 24 for a 1ST down
76.0%
0.0
Q3 11:12
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the UNLV 20
73.8%
-2.2
Q3 10:42
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the UNLV 17
73.8%
0.0
Q3 10:08
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 17 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
55.4%
-18.4
UNLV · Drive 17TD · 1 play · 86 yds
Q3 13:05
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 86 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
80.1%
0.0
UNLV · Drive 18FG · 11 plays · 73 yds
Q3 10:08
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
57.5%
+2.1
Q3 10:02
Air Force Penalty, (15 Yards) to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST down
63.1%
+5.6
Q3 9:39
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 6 yds to the UNLV 49
63.7%
+0.6
Q3 8:52
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Troy Omeire for 18 yds to the AF 33 for a 1ST down
64.0%
+0.3
Q3 8:31
Jai'Den Thomas run for 5 yds to the AF 28
65.8%
+1.8
Q3 7:56
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 2 yds to the AF 26
65.8%
0.0
Q3 7:12
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Taeshaun Lyons for 18 yds to the AF 8 for a 1ST down Air Force Penalty, (4 Yards) to the AF 4 for a 1ST down
63.4%
-2.4
Q3 6:47
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the AF 3
63.6%
+0.2
Q3 6:05
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the AF 2
63.6%
0.0
Q3 5:28
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Jaden Bradley
62.9%
-0.8
Q3 5:25
Ramon Villela 20 yd FG GOOD
73.8%
+10.9
AF · Drive 19TD · 13 plays · 75 yds
Q3 5:25
Caden Costa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
73.2%
-0.6
Q3 5:17
Owen Allen run for 4 yds to the AF 29
69.0%
-4.2
Q3 4:43
Cade Harris run for 10 yds to the AF 39 for a 1ST down
69.1%
+0.1
Q3 4:13
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 12 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST down
68.2%
-1.0
Q3 3:35
Kade Frew run for 9 yds to the UNLV 40
66.9%
-1.2
Q3 3:04
Liam Szarka run for 3 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST down
66.4%
-0.5
Q3 2:33
Cade Harris run for 2 yds to the UNLV 35
66.4%
0.0
Q3 2:03
Liam Szarka pass complete to Jonah Dawson for 21 yds to the UNLV 14 for a 1ST down
66.4%
0.0
Q3 1:36
Owen Allen run for 11 yds to the UNLV 3 for a 1ST down
66.4%
0.0
Q3 0:56
Cade Harris run for 2 yds to the UNLV 1
66.4%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Liam Szarka run for no gain to the UNLV 1
66.4%
0.0
Q4 15:00
Liam Szarka run for no gain to the UNLV 1
66.4%
0.0
Q4 14:20
Liam Szarka run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
38.2%
-28.2
UNLV · Drive 20TD · 9 plays · 75 yds
Q4 14:20
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
39.4%
+1.2
Q4 14:13
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 8 yds to the UNLV 33
49.6%
+10.2
Q4 13:42
Keyvone Lee run for 15 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST down
49.6%
0.0
Q4 13:03
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Jaden Bradley
50.9%
+1.3
Q4 12:55
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the UNLV 49
50.9%
0.0
Q4 12:12
Anthony Colandrea run for 24 yds for a 1ST down
50.7%
-0.3
Q4 11:57
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 14 yds to the AF 13 for a 1ST down
52.9%
+2.3
Q4 11:29
(11:32) Shotgun Colandrea,Anthony pass incomplete short middle to Bradley,Jaden thrown to USAFA00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USAFA Pass Interference (Johnson,Korey) 11 yard from USAFA13 to USAFA02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
52.8%
-0.1
Q4 11:26
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds for a TD (K. Lee Run For Two-point Conversion)
78.3%
+25.5
AF · Drive 21TD · 12 plays · 75 yds
Q4 11:26
Caden Costa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
77.2%
-1.2
Q4 11:18
Liam Szarka run for 9 yds to the AF 34
74.1%
-3.1
Q4 10:43
Owen Allen run for 7 yds to the AF 41 for a 1ST down
74.1%
0.0
Q4 10:12
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Cade Harris
75.3%
+1.2
Q4 10:06
Kade Frew run for 13 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST down
75.3%
0.0
Q4 9:47
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the UNLV 43
73.9%
-1.3
Q4 9:12
Cade Harris run for 7 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST down
73.7%
-0.2
Q4 8:34
Owen Allen run for 17 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST down
73.5%
-0.2
Q4 7:57
Owen Allen run for 9 yds to the UNLV 10
73.4%
-0.1
Q4 7:12
Matt Long run for 4 yds to the UNLV 6 for a 1ST down
73.4%
0.0
Q4 6:41
Liam Szarka run for 2 yds to the UNLV 4
73.4%
0.0
Q4 6:09
Cade Harris run for 4 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
38.4%
-34.9
UNLV · Drive 22TD · 6 plays · 75 yds
Q4 6:09
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
40.7%
+2.3
Q4 6:00
Keyvone Lee run for 18 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST down
47.3%
+6.6
Q4 5:29
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to JoJo Earle
48.0%
+0.8
Q4 5:29
PENALTY USAFA UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Johnson,Korey) 16 yards from UNLV43 to USAFA41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
48.0%
0.0
Q4 5:21
(05:27) Shotgun Thomas,Jai'Den rush middle for 10 yards gain to the USAFA31 (Jones,Roger; Swartz,Aiden) PENALTY UNLV Holding (McGowan,Malik) 10 yards from USAFA41 to UNLV49. NO PLAY.
51.5%
+3.5
Q4 4:55
Jai'Den Thomas run for 51 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)
79.7%
+28.1
AF · Drive 23TD · 16 plays · 75 yds
Q4 4:55
Caden Costa kickoff for 61 yds
78.8%
-0.9
Q4 4:47
Liam Szarka run for 4 yds to the AF 29
75.0%
-3.8
Q4 4:19
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 17 yds to the AF 46 for a 1ST down
75.0%
0.0
Q4 3:48
Liam Szarka run for 5 yds to the UNLV 49
73.7%
-1.3
Q4 3:16
Cade Harris run for no gain to the UNLV 49
75.1%
+1.4
Q4 2:44
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Cade Harris
76.6%
+1.4
Q4 2:32
Liam Szarka pass complete to Kade Frew for 15 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST down
78.7%
+2.1
Q4 2:03
Owen Allen run for 7 yds to the UNLV 27
79.7%
+1.0
Q4 1:54
Owen Allen run for 13 yds to the UNLV 14 for a 1ST down
80.1%
+0.4
Q4 1:31
Timeout UNLV, clock 01:31
78.3%
-1.9
Q4 1:30
Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the UNLV 12
78.3%
0.0
Q4 1:27
Timeout UNLV, clock 01:27
77.6%
-0.6
Q4 1:24
Liam Szarka run for 1 yd to the UNLV 11
77.6%
0.0
Q4 1:20
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun Harris,Cade rush left for 2 yards gain to the UNLV09 (Pope,Jake; Bin-Wahad,Mumu) PENALTY UNLV Face Mask (Bin-Wahad,Mumu) 7 yards from UNLV11 to UNLV04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
78.9%
+1.3
Q4 1:20
(01:19) PENALTY USAFA False Start (Tate,Trevor) 5 yards from UNLV04 to UNLV09. NO PLAY.
78.9%
0.0
Q4 1:13
Liam Szarka run for 9 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
23.6%
-55.3
UNLV · Drive 24TD · 8 plays · 75 yds
Q4 1:13
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
24.9%
+1.4
Q4 1:08
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 6 yds to the UNLV 31
34.5%
+9.6
Q4 1:03
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 27 yds to the AF 42 for a 1ST down
34.5%
0.0
Q4 0:57
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 14 yds to the AF 28 for a 1ST down
39.6%
+5.1
Q4 0:50
Timeout UNLV, clock 00:50
35.5%
-4.0
Q4 0:49
Anthony Colandrea run for no gain to the AF 28
35.5%
0.0
Q4 0:44
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 9 yds to the AF 19
34.4%
-1.2
Q4 0:36
Anthony Colandrea run for 19 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)
89.1%
+0.6
AF · Drive 25MISSED FG · 9 plays · 52 yds
Q4 0:37
Caden Costa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
88.5%
+54.1
Q4 0:32
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Cade Harris
84.9%
-4.1
Q4 0:27
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 11 yds to the AF 36 for a 1ST down
84.9%
0.0
Q4 0:16
Liam Szarka run for 9 yds to the AF 45
85.3%
+0.4
Q4 0:16
Timeout Air Force, clock 00:16
85.0%
-0.3
Q4 0:07
Liam Szarka pass complete to Jonah Dawson for 23 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST down
85.0%
0.0
Q4 0:02
Liam Szarka run for 9 yds to the UNLV 23
84.2%
-0.8
Q4 0:02
Timeout Air Force, clock 00:02
83.0%
-1.2
Q4 0:00
Jacob Medina 40 yd FG MISSED
82.9%
-0.1
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:13
Liam Szarka run for 9 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
-55.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:37
Caden Costa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+54.1
TD · Q4 6:09
Cade Harris run for 4 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
-34.9