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USU

Utah State 7 at Air Force 31

AF
2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+2.3AF 82.3%Jake Koehnke 57 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 17 · Q2 0:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Jake Koehnke 57 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Home team on offense+15.8Score differential+6.8Pregame prior+4.5Garbage-time factor+4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:55: Timothy Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +5.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:36: Kadin Remsberg run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +7.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:35: Timeout AIR FORCE, clock 00:35 — AF win probability +5.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:49: Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 27 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +7.1 pts (now 27%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:17: Kadin Remsberg run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +11.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 3USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 9:55USU 4th & 3 at USU 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:50USU 4th & 8 at USU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:55USU 4th & 6 at USU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:36USU 4th & 10 at AF 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:00AF 4th & 14 at USU 39, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.7%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    81.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:45AF 4th & 15 at AF 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:55USU 4th & 3 at USU 8, down 10
    Close callPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:17USU 4th & 7 at USU 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:01USU 4th & 13 at USU 39, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:58AF 4th & 7 at USU 37, up 24
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:48USU 4th & 10 at USU 5, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 11:55AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:36AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:49USU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:17AF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:06AF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1FUMBLE
10 plays · 53 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.2%
Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
59.2%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 8 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
59.2%
Timothy Jackson run for 6 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
59.2%
Timothy Jackson run for 7 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
59.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
59.2%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+21
59.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for 21 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
59.2%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+15
59.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for 15 yds to the UthSt 22 Isaiah Sanders fumbled, forced by Cameron Haney, recovered by UthSt DJ WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
59.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 2 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+5
59.3%
Gerold Bright run for 5 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
59.3%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
59.5%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 71 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3FUMBLE
11 plays · 44 yds · 0:0059% → 60%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
59.3%
Timothy Jackson run for 5 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+9
59.4%
Timothy Jackson run for 9 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
59.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 7 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+2
59.9%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+5
59.7%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
59.9%
Joshua Stoner run for 10 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
60.0%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+4
60.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
59.9%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
60.2%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-6
60.2%
Geraud Sanders run for a loss of 6 yards to the UthSt 36 Geraud Sanders fumbled, forced by Devon Anderson, recovered by UthSt Nick HeningerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
58.5%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
58.2%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
58.6%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
59.5%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 5:0359% → 67%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
59.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
59.3%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+40
58.4%
Timothy Jackson run for 40 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
60.8%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+7
60.9%
Taven Birdow run for 7 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
61.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 13 yds to the UthSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
61.2%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the UthSt 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+8
61.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 8 yds to the UthSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
61.2%
Timothy Jackson run for 4 yds to the UthSt 1Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.0%
Timothy Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 4 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
64.1%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-3
64.5%
Jordan Love sacked by Mosese Fifita for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 29Similar
Q2 11:55
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
65.7%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 4:0067% → 75%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
67.0%
Taven Birdow run for no gain to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+16
66.5%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 16 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
67.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+6
67.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 6 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+20
66.9%
Timothy Jackson run for 20 yds to the UthSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
67.5%
Timothy Jackson run for 7 yds to the UthSt 6Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+5
67.5%
Timothy Jackson run for 5 yds to the UthSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
73.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 31 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
72.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 2 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-2
72.1%
Jordan Love run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
72.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
73.4%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 33 yds, downed at the AFA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9FG
15 plays · 50 yds · 5:0174% → 82%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
74.3%
Donald Hammond III run for 5 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+4
74.3%
Timothy Jackson run for 4 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+4
73.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
74.5%
Donald Hammond III run for 11 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
74.7%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Dane KinamonSimilar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
74.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 12 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
75.8%
Taven Birdow run for 7 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+11
75.9%
Donald Hammond III run for 11 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
76.0%
SANDERS, Isaiah rush for 9 yards to the USU26 (WOODWARD, David), PENALTY AF holding (MITCHELL, Chris) 10 yards to the USU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 20
OPP 45
0
75.7%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+2
75.5%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 18
OPP 43
+4
80.9%
Timothy Jackson run for 4 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 14
OPP 39
+57
82.3%
Jake Koehnke 57 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1117% → 27%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Carson Terrell, broken up by Jeremy FejedelemSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
83.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 10 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
82.7%
LOVE, Jordan pass incomplete to MARINER, Siaosi, dropped pass, PENALTY AF holding (BUGG III, Milto) 10 yards to the USU45, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
82.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 4 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+7
81.8%
Gerold Bright run for 7 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
81.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 8 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+4
81.2%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
80.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 3 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+2
80.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+27
73.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 27 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
77.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 9 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
77.8%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Lesley DalgerSimilar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
76.9%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
77.9%
Timothy Jackson run for 1 yd to the UthSt 48Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
77.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-8
76.9%
Donald Hammond III sacked by Nick Heninger for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 46 Donald Hammond III fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 15
OWN 46
0
74.5%
Charlie Scott punt for 53 yds, downed at the UthSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
77.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the UthSt 3Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
78.1%
Gerold Bright run for no gain to the UthSt 3Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+5
79.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 5 yds to the UthSt 8Similar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 3
OWN 8
0
79.6%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 33 yds, downed at the UthSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:5381% → 93%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
81.1%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+13
81.2%
Donald Hammond III run for 13 yds to the UthSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
81.2%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+4
81.2%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+3
80.4%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
81.2%
Timothy Jackson run for 5 yds to the UthSt 6Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 5
OPP 6
-3
81.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 9Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+9
93.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
92.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 7 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
91.5%
Gerold Bright run for 5 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-8
91.5%
Jordan Love sacked by Demonte Meeks and Christopher Herrera for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 29Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 18
OWN 29
+11
92.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 11 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
91.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 3:17
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
91.9%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 6:2194% → 99%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
93.5%
Timothy Jackson run for 4 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+2
93.8%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+6
94.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 6 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
94.5%
Donald Hammond III run for 14 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
94.5%
Timothy Jackson run for no gain to the UthSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
94.5%
Donald Hammond III run for 11 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
94.5%
Taven Birdow run for 9 yds to the UthSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+3
94.5%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the UthSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
94.5%
Kadin Remsberg run for 10 yds to the UthSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
94.5%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the UthSt 1Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.9%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
98.7%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-3
98.7%
Jordan Love run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 39Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 13
OWN 39
0
98.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Savon ScarverSimilar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
98.8%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17PUNT
12 plays · 43 yds · 6:2299% → 100%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
98.8%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+11
98.8%
Donald Hammond III run for 11 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
98.8%
Timothy Jackson run for 5 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+6
98.9%
Timothy Jackson run for 6 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
98.9%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+11
98.9%
Taven Birdow run for 11 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
98.9%
MALLARD, Christ rush for 3 yards to the USU37 (VONGPHACHANH, A), PENALTY AF holding 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 20
50
+3
98.9%
Christian Mallard run for 3 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+5
98.9%
Christian Mallard run for 5 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+5
98.9%
Christian Mallard run for 5 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
99.7%
Charlie Scott punt for 32 yds, downed at the UthSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
99.4%
Riley Burt run for 2 yds to the UthSt 7Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 8
OWN 7
0
99.4%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi MarinerSimilar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 8
OWN 7
-2
99.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Riley Burt for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 5Similar
Q4 2:48
4TH & 10
OWN 5
0
99.4%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 65 yds, downed at the AFA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 12
OWN 28
-2
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:17
Kadin Remsberg run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)
+11.7
TD · Q2 6:36
Kadin Remsberg run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q3 11:49
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 27 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
-7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com