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AF

Air Force 30 at Colorado 23

COLO
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:04 · Charlie Scott punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 106Home team on offense−13.2Pregame prior+4.5Garbage-time factor−3.8Score differential−6.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:37: Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 81 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +8.7 pts (now 54%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 10:23: Jake Koehnke 47 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +14.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:09: Steven Montez pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 13 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou PAT BLOCKED) — COLO win probability +9.5 pts (now 30%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:28: Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +43.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Kadin Remsberg run for 25 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +26.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 7AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00COLO 4th & 1 at AF 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−0.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:23COLO 4th & 8 at AF 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:03COLO 4th & 15 at COLO 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:24COLO 4th & 18 at COLO 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−1.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:58COLO 4th & 8 at AF 37, down 10
    Close callPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    35.7%−0.4
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:04AF 4th & 2 at AF 39, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:33COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:39AF 4th & 3 at COLO 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%−1.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:23AF 4th & 13 at COLO 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−2.2
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    71.8%−7.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:23COLO 4th & 1 at AF 38, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    13.5%−3.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−4.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:09AF 4th & 14 at AF 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−6.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 3AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:37COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:03AF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    39.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:27AF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:37AF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:09COLO Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    20.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.4%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:28COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−6.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2362% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 4 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
61.9%
Alex Fontenot run for 4 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
61.9%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
61.9%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (William Sherman) to the Colo 30Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 30
-8
61.9%
Steven Montez sacked by Jeremy Fejedelem for a loss of 8 yards to the Colo 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 23
OWN 22
+8
61.9%
Alex Fontenot run for 8 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+17
61.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 17 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
61.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
61.9%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+7
61.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 7 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
61.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
64.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 42 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.5%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
63.5%
Kadin Remsberg run for 7 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
63.5%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the AFA 34 Taven Birdow fumbled, forced by Aaron Maddox, recovered by Colo Davion Taylor , return for no gain to the AFA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3FG
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:1765% → 65%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
64.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 13 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
64.6%
Deion Smith run for 2 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
64.6%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
64.4%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to K.D. Nixon, broken up by Zane LewisSimilar
Q1 7:23
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+36
64.6%
James Stefanou 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2036% → 38%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
64.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 15 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
64.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for 6 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+8
63.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 8 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
63.7%
Kadin Remsberg run for 13 yds to the Colo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
63.3%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-10
63.1%
HAMMOND III, DJ rush for 6 yards to the COLO22, out-of-bounds, PENALTY AF holding (FERGUSON, Parke) 10 yards to the COLO38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+6
64.0%
Nolan Eriksen run for 6 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+32
61.7%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 32 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 7 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
62.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 6 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-3
63.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 7 yds to the Colo 38 COLORADO Penalty, Offensive holding (Brady Russell) to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
62.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 6 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
63.0%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
63.3%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
63.1%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Brady Russell) to the Colo 32Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 15
OWN 32
0
62.4%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 15
OWN 32
+6
62.1%
Alex Kinney punt for 52 yds , Ben Peterson returns for 6 yds to the AFA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 6:0537% → 46%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+19
62.6%
Taven Birdow run for 19 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
61.5%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+11
61.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 11 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
60.9%
Timothy Jackson run for 11 yds to the Colo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
60.4%
Timothy Jackson run for 1 yd to the Colo 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-1
60.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+11
61.1%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 11 yds to the Colo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
60.2%
Donald Hammond III run for 5 yds to the Colo 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+4
60.2%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the Colo 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
60.8%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the Colo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
60.2%
Taven Birdow run for 9 yds to the Colo 2Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
54.3%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
57.2%
Alex Fontenot run for 4 yds to the Colo 21Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+3
57.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 3 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 3
OWN 24
-5
56.6%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Dimitri Stanley) to the Colo 19Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+17
56.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 17 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
58.0%
Steven Montez sacked by Lakota Wills for a loss of 8 yards to the Colo 28Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 18
OWN 28
0
56.9%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Dimitri StanleySimilar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 18
OWN 28
0
56.1%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
55.8%
Alex Kinney punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 20 , Ben Peterson returns for no gain to the AFA 20 Ben Peterson fumbled, recovered by AFA Ben PetersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:4445% → 54%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
55.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 19Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+81
46.3%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 81 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9INT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.3%
Dimitri Stanley run for no gain to the Colo 25Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
45.1%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (William Sherman) to the Colo 20Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
44.9%
Steven Montez pass intercepted Milton Bugg III return for no gain to the Colo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10INT
12 plays · 38 yds · 5:2657% → 63%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
43.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 5 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+5
43.1%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the Colo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
43.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for no gain to the Colo 34Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
42.6%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+12
43.1%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 12 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
42.2%
Donald Hammond III run for 7 yds to the Colo 13Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
42.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the Colo 11Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
42.8%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds to the Colo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
42.2%
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds to the Colo 6Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
37.4%
Donald Hammond III pass intercepted, touchback. Mikial Onu return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
40.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12FUMBLE
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:0059% → 61%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
40.7%
Benjamin Waters run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
39.9%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
40.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for no gain to the AFA 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
40.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+11
39.9%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 11 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
39.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+13
39.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for 13 yds to the Colo 35 Kadin Remsberg fumbled, forced by Mikial Onu, recovered by Colo Nu'umotu Falo Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
36.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 7 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
38.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd to the Colo 43Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
37.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 5 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
38.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 6 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+7
39.2%
Alex Fontenot run for 7 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
39.2%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
39.1%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to K.D. NixonSimilar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
38.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Dimitri StanleySimilar
Q3 10:58
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
36.4%
Alex Kinney punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
35.3%
Timothy Jackson run for 8 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
34.3%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Benjamin WatersSimilar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
35.4%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
34.6%
Nolan Eriksen run for 3 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+5
34.5%
Kadin Remsberg run for 5 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 2
OWN 39
0
34.1%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Benjamin WatersSimilar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
35.4%
Charlie Scott punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
30.6%
Jaren Mangham run for 19 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
32.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-1
32.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jaren Mangham for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
31.0%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr., broken up by Zane LewisSimilar
Q3 5:33
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
29.7%
Alex Kinney punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16FG
15 plays · 51 yds · 8:3571% → 90%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
29.4%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
29.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 8 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
28.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 16 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
26.9%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+9
26.7%
Nolan Eriksen run for 9 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
26.7%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the Colo 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+2
24.0%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+3
24.4%
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q4 13:39
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+7
27.0%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Kade Waguespack for 7 yds to the Colo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
23.3%
HAMMOND III, DJ rush for 6 yards to the COLO20 (Johnson, Mustaf), PENALTY AF holding (KREPSZ, Kyle) 10 yards to the COLO36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+4
24.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 16
OPP 32
+2
23.7%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 14
OPP 30
+1
24.5%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 1 yd to the Colo 29Similar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 13
OPP 29
+47
10.5%
Jake Koehnke 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1416% → 30%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.0%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to K.D. NixonSimilar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
15.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jalen Harris for 4 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
15.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 12 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
17.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jalen Harris for 8 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+4
18.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 4 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
18.0%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
17.6%
Alex Fontenot run for 4 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+5
17.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jalen Harris for 5 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+19
17.6%
Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 19 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
20.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jalen Harris for 5 yds to the AFA 14Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+1
20.6%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd to the AFA 13Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+13
30.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 13 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:0082% → 79%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
18.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 23Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-5
18.8%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (Geraud Sanders) to the AFA 18Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-5
19.0%
AIR FORCE Penalty, FD (Kade Waguespack) to the AFA 13Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 22
OWN 13
0
19.0%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+8
19.7%
Taven Birdow run for 8 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q4 6:09
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
20.7%
Charlie Scott punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dimitri Stanley at the Colo 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19TD
16 plays · 60 yds · 3:5325% → 66%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
24.9%
N/A run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 37Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+15
21.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 15 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
27.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+3
28.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+9
28.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 9 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
30.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Brady Russell for 2 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+7
31.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 7 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+4
29.0%
Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
31.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jaren Mangham for no gain to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
22.0%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q4 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
22.5%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the AFA 2Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.9%
Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
47.2%
TEAM run for loss of 2 yds to the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
20.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 25 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0028% → 17%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
28.1%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Jalen HarrisSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
24.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 7 yds to the AFA 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+4
25.8%
Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 4 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
28.1%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Alex FontenotSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
28.1%
Alex Fontenot run for no gain to the AFA 14Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 14
-2
21.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Alex Fontenot for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 16Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 16
0
16.8%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:28
Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)
+43.8
TD · OT 0:00
Kadin Remsberg run for 25 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)
-26.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-16.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com