Air Force

Profile vs. FBS, 2015

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1979th
  Defense+0.1235th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense46.9%82nd
  Defense36.6%92nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1321st
  Defense+1.541st
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1686th
  Defense+0.0266th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3384th
  Defense+0.2326th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense51.8%83rd
  Defense40.0%96th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.6%43rd
  Defense31.0%70th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2090th
  Defense2.3892nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.3%93rd
  Defense24.1%83rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.2%34th
  Defense2.4%72nd

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2015

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Air Force allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   MORG
2. W
   SJSU
3. L
   MSU
4. L
   NAVY
5. W
   WYO
6. L
   CSU
7. W
   FRES
8. W
   HAW
9. W
   ARMY
10. W
    USU
11. W
    BOIS
12. L
    UNM
13. L
    SDSU
14. L
    CAL

Bars above the line: better than expected for Air Force.

Players, 2015

1. Karson RobertsQB251 plays · +0.215 pts/play · 94th of 205 QBs
   1.01WAR0.50 to 1.55
2. Jacobi OwensRB154 plays · +0.073 pts/play · 120th of 333 RBs
   0.21WAR0.08 to 0.35
3. Jalen RobinetteWR37 plays · +0.190 pts/play · 144th of 411 WRs
   0.13WAR0.07 to 0.21
4. D.J. JohnsonRB59 plays · +0.098 pts/play · 197th of 333 RBs
   0.11WAR0.05 to 0.15
5. Garrett BrownWR53 plays · +0.090 pts/play · 235th of 411 WRs
   0.09WAR0.04 to 0.14
6. Shayne DavernRB31 plays · +0.143 pts/play · 220th of 333 RBs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.11
7. Nate RomineQB30 plays · +0.144 pts/play · 191st of 205 QBs
   0.08WAR0.00 to 0.15
8. Timothy McVeyRB12 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 252nd of 333 RBs
   0.03WAR0.01 to 0.05

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Air Force's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2015

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  7171128th of 128Roster talent: 71, 128th of 128 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  9898118th of 128Recruiting: 98, 118th of 128 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  62%62%63rd of 127Returning production: 62%, 63rd of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +4.7+4.757th of 128SP+ rating: +4.7, 57th of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 128 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2015

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Air Force's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 6 clear-cut ones account for 0.10 of the 0.16 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs USUQ3 8:20 4th & 1 at AF 19, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
2. at SDSUQ4 3:35 4th & 5 at AF 30, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
3. at BOISQ4 2:11 4th & 1 at BOIS 28, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
4. at BOISQ4 9:46 4th & 2 at midfield, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
5. at BOISQ2 8:45 4th & 1 at BOIS 48, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
6. at SDSUQ2 4:42 4th & 3 at SDSU 3, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
7. vs USUQ4 2:52 4th & 5 at USU 41, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
8. at SDSUQ2 10:32 4th & 4 at SDSU 41, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2015

55th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Air Force's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   MORG
2. W

   SJSU
3. L

   MSU
4. L

   NAVY
5. W

   WYO
6. L

   CSU
7. W

   FRES
8. W

   HAW
9. W

   ARMY
10. W

    USU
11. W

    BOIS
12. L

    UNM
13. L

    SDSU
14. L

    CAL

What moved it, 2015

Every game starts at Air Force's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.56
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Clock+0.01
• Timeouts−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.09

Game by game

• MORGW 63-7 vs MORG73% → 100%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +29
• SJSUW 37-16 vs SJSU60% → 100%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +39, Timeouts +1
• MSUL 21-35 at MSU4% → 1%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −9
• NAVYL 11-33 at NAVY34% → 1%Before kickoff −16 · On the field −33: Scoreboard −35
• WYOW 31-17 vs WYO91% → 99%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +14
• CSUL 23-38 at CSU61% → 1%Before kickoff +11 · On the field −60: Scoreboard −48, Timeouts −2
• FRESW 42-14 vs FRES87% → 100%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +13: Scoreboard +17
• HAWW 58-7 at HAW69% → 100%Before kickoff +19 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +37
• ARMYW 20-3 vs ARMY90% → 99%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +15, Timeouts +1
• USUW 35-28 vs USU47% → 97%Before kickoff −3 · On the field +49: Scoreboard +39, Timeouts +2
• BOISW 37-30 at BOIS17% → 96%Before kickoff −33 · On the field +79: Scoreboard +56, Clock +4
• UNML 35-47 at UNM74% → 2%Before kickoff +24 · On the field −72: Scoreboard −47, Timeouts −2
• SDSUL 24-27 at SDSU37% → 19%Before kickoff −13 · On the field −18: Scoreboard −17, Possession & field position −1
• CALL 36-55 vs CAL26% → 1%Before kickoff −24 · On the field −25: Scoreboard −35, Clock −1

Points of win probability, from Air Force's side.

Closest call

AF 41-38 SJSU (2016) - Air Force dropped to a 10.7% win probability before pulling it out.