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AF

Air Force 58 at Hawai'i 7

HAW
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Aloha Stadium
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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.8HAW 4.8%Luke Strebel 36 yd FG GOODAWAY 34 - HOME 0 · Q2 0:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Luke Strebel 36 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Home team on offense−34.3Score differential−18.8Pregame prior−9.7Garbage-time factor−9.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:50: Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +0.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:39: Jacobi Owens run for 11 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +3.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:07: Karson Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +9.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:03: Benton Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +3.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:00: Luke Strebel 36 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +1.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 6 of 9AF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:50HAW 4th & 17 at HAW 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:04AF 4th & 9 at AF 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:56AF 4th & 14 at HAW 23, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    81.7%−2.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:50HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 35, down 24
    Close callPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:50AF 4th & 1 at AF 29, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.3%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00AF 4th & 13 at HAW 19, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    94.2%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 3 at AF 32, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:57HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 28, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:51AF 4th & 17 at HAW 27, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:51HAW 4th & 3 at HAW 42, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:58AF 4th & 1 at HAW 33, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:45HAW 4th & 14 at HAW 13, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:36HAW 4th & 29 at HAW 23, down 51
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:04AF 4th & 9 at AF 25, up 51
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:55HAW 4th & 17 at HAW 46, down 51
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 1 of 1AF made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 6:50AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:39AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:07AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:03AF Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:53AF Touchdown, up 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:10AF Touchdown, up 50 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:56HAW Touchdown, down 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:43AF Touchdown, up 50 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
31.4%
Max Wittek pass complete to Isaiah Bernard for 12 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
31.4%
Paul Harris run for no gain to the Hawa 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
31.4%
Max Wittek pass complete to Devan Stubblefield for 6 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
31.4%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Dylan Collie, broken up by Weston SteelhammerSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
31.4%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 6:2268% → 69%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
32.2%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 9Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+5
32.2%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 14Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+7
32.3%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 7 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
32.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+2
32.1%
Bryan Driskell run for 2 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+9
32.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 9 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
32.1%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Bryan Driskell for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
50
+3
32.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the Hawa 47Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+5
32.0%
Benton Washington run for 5 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+5
32.0%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 5 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+23
32.0%
Karson Roberts run for 23 yds to the Hawa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
31.9%
Benton Washington run for 6 yds to the Hawa 8 Benton Washington fumbled, forced by Dany Mulanga, recovered by AFA Benton WashingtonSimilar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+5
31.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the Hawa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
31.9%
Bryan Driskell run for 1 yd to the Hawa 2Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
31.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
32.0%
Max Wittek sacked by Alex Hansen for a loss of 4 yards to the Hawa 21Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-10
32.0%
HAWAII Penalty, illegal block (Ben Clarke) to the Hawa 11Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 24
OWN 11
0
32.0%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Devan StubblefieldSimilar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 24
OWN 11
+7
31.7%
Max Wittek pass complete to Paul Harris for 7 yds to the Hawa 18Similar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+41
31.6%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 41 yds , Garrett Brown returns for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:3069% → 73%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
31.3%
Bryan Driskell run for 9 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+7
31.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the Hawa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+33
31.1%
Karson Roberts run for 33 yds to the Hawa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
27.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 11 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 43 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+43
28.2%
Max Wittek pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 43 yds Quinton Pedroza fumbled, forced by Jesse Washington, recovered by AFA Weston SteelhammerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
27.4%
Benton Washington run for 2 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+16
27.4%
Benton Washington run for 16 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
27.4%
Karson Roberts run for 6 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 25
OPP 47
0
27.8%
Steve Brosy punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+4
27.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the Hawa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-15
27.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, illegal block (Colin Sandor) to the Hawa 47Similar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 25
OPP 47
0
27.5%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the Hawa 47Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 25
OPP 47
0
27.5%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:1928% → 27%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
27.5%
Max Wittek pass complete to Dylan Collie for 13 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
27.6%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Devan StubblefieldSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
27.5%
Melvin Davis run for no gain to the Hawa 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
27.2%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Dakota TorresSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 33
-3
27.2%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 53 yds , Garrett Brown returns for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
26.4%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+4
26.4%
Bryan Driskell run for 4 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+8
26.6%
Bryan Driskell run for 8 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
26.2%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive holding (Dany Mulanga) to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
25.8%
Bryan Driskell run for 1 yd to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
25.8%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
26.0%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
26.5%
Steve Brosy punt for 34 yds, downed at the Hawa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
25.8%
Melvin Davis run for 7 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+1
26.2%
Melvin Davis run for 1 yd to the Hawa 35 Melvin Davis fumbled, forced by Roland Ladipo, recovered by AFA D.J. Dunn Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:5176% → 85%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
23.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the Hawa 31Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+5
23.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the Hawa 26Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+7
24.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the Hawa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
23.8%
Bryan Driskell run for 13 yds to the Hawa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
23.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the Hawa 1Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.7%
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.4%
Max Wittek pass intercepted Weston Steelhammer return for no gain to the Hawa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12FG
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:0685% → 85%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+23
15.0%
Bryan Driskell run for 23 yds to the Hawa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
14.7%
Bryan Driskell run for 3 yds to the Hawa 16Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 7
OPP 16
-11
14.7%
Karson Roberts run for a loss of 11 yards to the Hawa 27Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 18
OPP 27
+4
15.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the Hawa 23Similar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 14
OPP 23
+40
15.0%
Luke Strebel 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
16.6%
Paul Harris run for 2 yds to the Hawa 18Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+11
16.6%
Max Wittek pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 11 yds to the Hawa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
16.8%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Devan StubblefieldSimilar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
16.6%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Devan StubblefieldSimilar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+6
16.5%
Max Wittek pass complete to Isaiah Bernard for 6 yds to the Hawa 35Similar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
16.7%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 3:4787% → 94%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
13.3%
Benton Washington run for 11 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
13.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
13.1%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 3 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
13.6%
Garrett Brown run for 2 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+1
13.9%
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+61
13.2%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 61 yds to the Hawa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
12.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the Hawa 2Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
12.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the Hawa 1Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.2%
Benton Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
5.1%
Max Wittek pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 9 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
4.7%
Max Wittek pass complete to Marcus Kemp for 9 yds to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
5.2%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+22
4.9%
Max Wittek pass intercepted Roland Ladipo return for 22 yds to the Hawa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16FG
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:3694% → 95%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
5.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the Hawa 21Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+5
5.1%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the Hawa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
5.0%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
5.0%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Ne'Quan PhillipsSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 10
OPP 16
-3
5.3%
Karson Roberts run for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 19Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 19
+36
4.8%
Luke Strebel 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
4.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
4.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
4.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
4.5%
Steve Brosy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Nick Nelson at the Hawa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
4.1%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Quinton PedrozaSimilar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
4.0%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Quinton Pedroza, broken up by Roland LadipoSimilar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
4.0%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Marcus KempSimilar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
4.0%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 47 yds, downed at the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19FG
14 plays · 48 yds · 7:3497% → 99%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
3.1%
Benton Washington run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
3.1%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 8 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
3.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 8 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+6
2.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
2.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 9 yds to the Hawa 39Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+4
2.9%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 4 yds to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
2.9%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 6 yds to the Hawa 29Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+9
2.9%
Benton Washington run for 9 yds to the Hawa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
2.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (Matt Rochell) to the Hawa 30Similar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 20
OPP 30
-4
2.9%
Benton Washington run for a loss of 4 yards to the Hawa 34Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 24
OPP 34
0
1.2%
Karson Roberts pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 24
OPP 34
+7
1.2%
Timothy McVey run for 7 yds to the Hawa 27Similar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 17
OPP 27
+44
1.5%
Luke Strebel 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
1.2%
Max Wittek pass complete to Devan Stubblefield for 7 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
1.1%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Metuisela 'UngaSimilar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
1.1%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Devan Stubblefield, broken up by Roland LadipoSimilar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
1.1%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Dylan Collie, broken up by Weston SteelhammerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21TD
13 plays · 42 yds · 7:2299% → 100%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
0.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the Hawa 41Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+4
0.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the Hawa 37Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+4
0.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q3 2:58
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+6
1.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the Hawa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
0.8%
Benton Washington run for 7 yds to the Hawa 20Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+2
0.8%
Benton Washington run for 2 yds to the Hawa 18Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+3
0.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the Hawa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
0.6%
Benton Washington run for 7 yds to the Hawa 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+2
0.6%
Benton Washington run for 2 yds to the Hawa 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+2
0.5%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 2 yds to the Hawa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
0.5%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 3 yds to the Hawa 1Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.3%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
0.2%
Paul Harris run for 2 yds to the Hawa 19Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
0.2%
Max Wittek pass incomplete to Devan StubblefieldSimilar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 8
OWN 19
-6
0.2%
Max Wittek sacked by D.J. Dunn Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Hawa 13Similar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 14
OWN 13
0
0.2%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 73 yds, downed at the AFA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 4:02100% → 100%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
0.3%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+5
0.3%
HAWAII Penalty, Defensive offside (Benetton Fonua) to the AFA 21Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+4
0.3%
Jacob Stafford run for 4 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.3%
Jacob Stafford run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
0.3%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+22
0.3%
Timothy McVey run for 22 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+35
0.3%
Timothy McVey run for 35 yds to the Hawa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
0.3%
HAWAII Penalty, personal foul (Vasquez Haynes) to the Hawa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.2%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25TD
2 plays · 39 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
0.2%
Timothy McVey run for 39 yds for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
0.1%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Devan Stubblefield for 4 yds to the Hawa 30Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+12
0.1%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Isaiah Bernard for 12 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-15
0.1%
HAWAII Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Devan Stubblefield) to the Hawa 27Similar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 25
OWN 27
0
0.1%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Devan StubblefieldSimilar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 25
OWN 27
-4
0.1%
Ikaika Woolsey run for 11 yds to the Hawa 38 HAWAII Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ikaika Woolsey) to the Hawa 23Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 29
OWN 23
0
0.1%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Devan StubblefieldSimilar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 29
OWN 23
0
0.1%
Rigoberto Sanchez punt for 53 yds, downed at the AFA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
0.2%
Jacob Stafford run for 2 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-5
0.2%
AIR FORCE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the AFA 21Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 13
OWN 21
0
0.2%
Jacob Stafford run for no gain to the AFA 21Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 13
OWN 21
+4
0.2%
Jacob Stafford run for 4 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+37
0.2%
Steve Brosy punt for 27 yds, downed at the HAWAII 48 HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (Jalen Rogers) to the Hawa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 28END OF GAME
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
0.1%
Ikaika Woolsey run for no gain to the Hawa 38Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
0.1%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Metuisela 'UngaSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+15
0.1%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Dakota Torres for 15 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
0.1%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 8 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 2
OPP 39
-8
0.0%
Ikaika Woolsey sacked by Alexander Kofskey for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-7
0.1%
Ikaika Woolsey sacked by Matt Evans for a loss of 7 yards to the Hawa 46Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 17
OWN 46
+18
0.1%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Quinton Pedroza for 18 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
0.1%
Ikaika Woolsey pass incomplete to Marcus Kemp, broken up by Hayes LinnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:07
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
-9.1
TD · Q1 3:39
Jacobi Owens run for 11 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
-3.7
TD · Q2 1:03
Benton Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
-3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com