Try the model
AF

Air Force 11 at Navy 33

NAVY
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Brett Dunn punt for 37 yds , Calvin Cass Jr. returns for 3 yds to the Navy 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Pregame prior+16.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:47: Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Thomas Wilson for 27 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +5.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:58: Demond Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +11.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:26: Chris Swain run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe PAT MISSED) — NAVY win probability +5.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 4:14: Drew Oehrle 39 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +2.8 pts (now 4%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:46: Karson Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (K. Roberts Run For Two-point Conversion) — AF win probability +7.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 8 of 10AF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00AF 4th & 2 at AF 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:05AF 4th & 1 at NAVY 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:39NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:30NAVY 4th & 1 at AF 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.1%−0.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:47AF 4th & 1 at NAVY 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.6%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:35NAVY 4th & 15 at NAVY 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−2.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:14NAVY 4th & 21 at NAVY 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−3.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:59AF 4th & 6 at AF 38, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:26NAVY 4th & 1 at AF 1, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    93.7%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    91.5%−3.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:26AF 4th & 5 at AF 30, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:29NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 26, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:14AF 4th & 6 at NAVY 21, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    -0.8%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:14NAVY 4th & 14 at NAVY 11, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:46AF 4th & 1 at NAVY 1, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:11NAVY 4th & 1 at AF 33, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.7%−1.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    93.2%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:00NAVY 4th & 4 at AF 19, up 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.8%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−2.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:00AF 4th & 14 at AF 20, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:56NAVY 4th & 7 at AF 7, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AF made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 11:05NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:47NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:58NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:26NAVY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:46AF Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.2%
Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
66.2%
Garrett Brown run for 4 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
66.2%
Benton Washington run for 2 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+3
66.2%
Brett Dunn punt for 37 yds , Calvin Cass Jr. returns for 3 yds to the Navy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:0766% → 68%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+54
66.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 54 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
66.3%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+8
66.3%
Chris Swain run for 8 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
66.3%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Joey Gaston) to the AFA 6Similar
Q1 13:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
66.3%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the AFA 2Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.6%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3DOWNS
14 plays · 65 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
66.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+2
66.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+6
66.9%
Garrett Brown run for 6 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
66.8%
Shayne Davern run for 8 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+5
66.6%
Garrett Brown run for 5 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
66.7%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+6
66.7%
Benton Washington run for 6 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+11
66.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 11 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
66.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 15 yds to the Navy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
66.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
66.5%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the Navy 1Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.7%
Shayne Davern run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.8%
Shayne Davern run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
68.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 7
OWN 4
0
68.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 7
OWN 4
-1
68.0%
Chris Swain run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 3Similar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 8
OWN 3
0
67.7%
Alex Barta punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
67.6%
Karson Roberts run for 4 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
67.0%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 6
OPP 35
-1
67.7%
Karson Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 36 Karson Roberts fumbled, recovered by Navy Kwazel BertrandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:4369% → 76%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
69.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 37Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
69.2%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+26
68.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to DeBrandon Sanders for 26 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
69.9%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+4
70.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+2
69.7%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+2
69.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
70.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 27
0
70.7%
Keenan Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+27
75.8%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Thomas Wilson for 27 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7FUMBLE
13 plays · 51 yds · 0:0026% → 28%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
73.6%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+5
73.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
73.3%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-3
73.0%
Karson Roberts run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 48 Karson Roberts fumbled, forced by Will Anthony, recovered by AFA Karson RobertsSimilar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+5
73.2%
Garrett Brown run for 5 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+5
73.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
73.0%
Garrett Brown run for 7 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+4
72.2%
Benton Washington run for 4 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
72.4%
Benton Washington run for 7 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+2
72.2%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+5
72.7%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
72.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the Navy 16 D.J. Johnson fumbled, forced by Will Anthony, recovered by Navy Kwazel BertrandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
77.9%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Ben Tamburello) to the Navy 11Similar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+1
77.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 12Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 14
OWN 12
-1
77.8%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Santo Coppola for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 11Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 15
OWN 11
0
77.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Chris SwainSimilar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 15
OWN 11
+15
76.8%
Alex Barta punt for 45 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 15 yds to the Navy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
76.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+4
76.4%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
76.1%
Karson Roberts pass intercepted Brendon Clements return for no gain to the Navy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:3479% → 76%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
78.6%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 9
OWN 19
-5
78.6%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Ben Tamburello) to the Navy 14Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 14
OWN 14
-13
78.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 13 yards to the Navy 1 NAVY Penalty, intentional grounding (Keenan Reynolds) to the Navy 1Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 27
OWN 1
+6
77.7%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the Navy 7Similar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 21
OWN 7
0
75.6%
Alex Barta punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
75.4%
Garrett Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 32 Garrett Brown fumbled, recovered by Navy D.J. PalmoreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:5978% → 91%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+67
77.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 67 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
79.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.3%
Demond Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5911% → 9%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
89.0%
Karson Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-1
89.3%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+5
89.7%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 5 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
90.7%
Brett Dunn punt for 44 yds, downed at the Navy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
93.4%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:3493% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.0%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
93.1%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 15 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
93.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, OF (Dexter Walker) to the Navy 49Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 49
+6
93.4%
Quentin Ezell run for 6 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
93.4%
Dishan Romine run for 3 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-1
93.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+15
93.2%
REYNOLDS, K pass incomplete to SANDERS, D, PENALTY AF pass interference (LINN, Hayes) 15 yards to the AF28, 1ST DOWN NAVY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
93.4%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
93.4%
Dishan Romine run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 25
-10
93.2%
REYNOLDS, K pass incomplete, PENALTY NAVY HL (GASTON, Joey) 10 yards to the AF35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 35
+31
93.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Dishan Romine for 31 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
93.4%
Quentin Ezell run for no gain to the AFA 4Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
93.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Calvin Cass Jr., broken up by Dexter WalkerSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
93.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.9%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.0%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.0%
Karson Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
98.9%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
98.9%
Brett Dunn punt for 53 yds, downed at the Navy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2899% → 99%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
99.2%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Dishan RomineSimilar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
99.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+5
99.2%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 5 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
99.3%
Alex Barta punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18FG
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:071% → 4%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.3%
Karson Roberts pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+34
99.3%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 34 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
99.2%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 12 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.1%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Quincy AdamsSimilar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
99.1%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Tyler Williams for 4 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
99.1%
Garrett Brown run for no gain to the Navy 21Similar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
96.3%
Drew Oehrle 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
98.1%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+2
98.0%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 2 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 6
OWN 19
-8
98.0%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Jesse Washington for a loss of 8 yards to the Navy 11Similar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 14
OWN 11
0
97.9%
Alex Barta punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20TD
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:253% → 10%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
97.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+18
97.1%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 18 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
96.7%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+2
96.6%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+6
96.9%
Karson Roberts run for 6 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
96.7%
Karson Roberts run for no gain to the Navy 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+11
97.5%
Garrett Brown run for 11 yds to the Navy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
97.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
97.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.6%
D.J. Johnson run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 13:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.0%
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (K. Roberts Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 5:4694% → 99%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
94.2%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Craig Scott for 33 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
94.8%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+6
94.7%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+1
94.6%
Quentin Ezell run for 1 yd to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+8
97.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
97.6%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Dishan Romine) to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+4
97.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+4
97.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+3
97.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
99.0%
Austin Grebe 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
96.5%
Karson Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+3
96.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+4
96.6%
Garrett Brown run for 4 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
96.5%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the AFA 25Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
96.5%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Quincy AdamsSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 9
OWN 25
-5
96.6%
AIR FORCE Penalty, delay of game (Karson Roberts) to the AFA 20Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 14
OWN 20
0
96.6%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Ryan ReffittSimilar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 14
OWN 20
0
96.6%
Brett Dunn punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Calvin Cass Jr. at the Navy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 4:0199% → 100%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
99.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 9 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+3
99.3%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+40
99.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 40 yds to the AFA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
99.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 4Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
99.5%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the AFA 3Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the AFA 2Similar
Q4 3:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
99.5%
NAVY Penalty, delay of game (Keenan Reynolds) to the AFA 7Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
99.7%
Austin Grebe 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
99.4%
Timothy McVey run for 10 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.4%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+2
99.4%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+1
99.4%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the AFA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:58
Demond Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
+11
TD · Q4 13:46
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (K. Roberts Run For Two-point Conversion)
-7.7
TD · Q3 9:26
Chris Swain run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe PAT MISSED)
+5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com