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AF

Air Force 21 at Michigan State 35

MSU
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFUMBLETDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:17 · Brett Dunn punt for 33 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 1 yd to the AFA 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 55Pregame prior+35.4Home team on offense+7.5Score differential+2.0Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:40: Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 28 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:28: Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 32 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:07: Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 21 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:38: Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 38 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK) — AF win probability +1.8 pts (now 2%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:11: D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK) — AF win probability +1.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:59AF 4th & 14 at AF 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:30MSU 4th & 1 at AF 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:17AF 4th & 5 at AF 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:22MSU 4th & 8 at AF 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:16AF 4th & 3 at AF 27, down 14
    Close callPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:41MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 30, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:07MSU 4th & 17 at MSU 40, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:47AF 4th & 3 at MSU 3, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:34MSU 4th & 1 at AF 40, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:16MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 25, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:48MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:22AF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:40MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:28MSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:07MSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:38AF Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:11AF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:014% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-7
95.7%
Karson Roberts run for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 22 Karson Roberts fumbled, recovered by AFA Jacobi OwensSimilar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-1
95.6%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Bryan Driskell for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
95.4%
Brett Dunn punt for 38 yds, downed at the MchSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 4:1195% → 95%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
95.4%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+15
95.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 15 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
95.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 12 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
95.2%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+3
95.1%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+9
94.9%
Madre London run for 9 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
94.9%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the AFA 15Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
94.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+15
95.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 15 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3FUMBLE TD
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:135% → 5%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
94.9%
Benton Washington run for 9 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+2
94.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
94.8%
Benton Washington run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
50
+5
94.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 5
OPP 45
+6
94.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+64
95.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds D.J. Johnson fumbled, recovered by MchSt Rj Williamson , return for 64 yds, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 13
OWN 3
+15
95.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:095% → 7%
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
95.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 12 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
95.2%
Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-14
95.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 40 AIR FORCE Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 22
OWN 25
+12
95.2%
Benton Washington run for 12 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+16
95.1%
Karson Roberts run for 6 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+22
94.9%
Shayne Davern run for 22 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
94.8%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+5
94.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 17Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+9
94.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 9 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
94.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
94.5%
Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.2%
Benton Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5TD
14 plays · 87 yds · 5:4094% → 95%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
93.7%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the MchSt 14Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+11
93.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 11 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.5%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
93.5%
Cook, Connor pass incomplete to Burbridge, Aaron, PENALTY AIRFORCE roughing passer (Deeks, Lochlin) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
93.7%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
93.6%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+15
93.4%
Cook, Connor pass incomplete to Burbridge, Aaron, PENALTY AIRFORCE pass interference 15 yards to the AIRFORCE39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
93.5%
Connor Cook sacked by Alex Hansen for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+9
93.2%
Connor Cook run for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+4
93.1%
Connor Cook run for 4 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
92.8%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
94.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 28 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:236% → 6%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
94.2%
Benton Washington run for 1 yd to the AFA 9Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
94.2%
Garrett Brown run for 8 yds to the AFA 17 AIR FORCE Penalty, Illegal Block (-8 Yards) to the AFA 9Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+3
94.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+1
94.1%
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 13Similar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 5
OWN 13
+1
94.1%
Brett Dunn punt for 33 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 1 yd to the AFA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7MISSED FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:5595% → 94%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
94.6%
Madre London run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
94.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+26
94.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 26 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
94.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
94.2%
DeAnthony Arnett run for 2 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
94.0%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+35
93.7%
Michael Geiger 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by David HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:066% → 6%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
93.8%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
93.6%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+3
93.8%
Jalen Robinette run for 3 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
93.7%
Brett Dunn punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:4894% → 98%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
93.7%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-4
94.0%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+14
93.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
50
+6
94.1%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+1
94.2%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+5
93.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 5 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-9
94.1%
Connor Cook sacked by David Harris and TEAM for a loss of 9 yards to the AFA 47 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Connor Cook) to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 19
OPP 47
+15
94.1%
Cook, Connor pass sacked for loss of 1 yards to the AIRFORCE48 (Byers, Samuel;Onyechi, Jacob), PENALTY AIRFORCE personal foul 15 yards to the AIRFORCE32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
98.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 32 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
97.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the AFA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5398% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
97.8%
Madre London run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 24Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
97.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 15 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+19
98.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 19 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
98.1%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
98.1%
Cook, Connor pass incomplete to Arnett, DeAnthony, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding off-setting, PENALTY AIRFORCE Roughing Passer off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+8
98.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to DeAnthony Arnett for 8 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
98.2%
Madre London run for 11 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 21 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:290% → 2%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
99.6%
Karson Roberts run for 13 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
99.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
50
0
99.6%
D.J. Johnson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 10
50
+9
99.6%
Shayne Davern run for 9 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
99.6%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
97.8%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 38 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5798% → 98%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.1%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
98.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
98.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14FUMBLE
3 plays · 15 yds · 1:182% → 2%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
97.8%
Karson Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+7
97.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
97.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47 Jacobi Owens fumbled, recovered by MchSt Andrew Dowell , return for 2 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 2:1698% → 98%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
98.3%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+1
98.3%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-7
98.3%
Connor Cook sacked by Grant Ross and Connor Healy for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 17
OWN 40
0
97.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 52 yds, downed at the AFA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16DOWNS
13 plays · 84 yds · 5:202% → 1%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
98.4%
Benton Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 7Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+32
98.5%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 32 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
98.3%
Benton Washington run for 18 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
98.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the MchSt 42Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+24
98.5%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 24 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
98.4%
Karson Roberts run for 6 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+7
98.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
98.8%
Karson Roberts run for 3 yds to the MchSt 2Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
98.7%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 3Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.8%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the MchSt 3Similar
Q4 13:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
99.0%
Jalen Robinette run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17DOWNS
12 plays · 52 yds · 6:1399% → 99%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
99.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 8 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 2
OWN 16
0
99.2%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the MchSt 16Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+2
99.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
99.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+18
99.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 18 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.3%
Damion Terry run for 5 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+2
99.4%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+3
99.4%
Connor Cook run for 3 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
99.4%
R.J. Shelton run for 8 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
99.4%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
99.4%
Connor Cook run for no gain to the AFA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18INT
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:231% → 1%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.3%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+13
99.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 13 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.3%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jacobi OwensSimilar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
99.3%
Devin Rushing run for 7 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+14
99.4%
Devin Rushing run for 14 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+20
99.3%
Devin Rushing run for 20 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
99.3%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 8Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
99.3%
Tyler Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 10Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
99.4%
Karson Roberts pass intercepted Rj Williamson return for 9 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
99.7%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 22
0
99.7%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 22Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+3
99.7%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 3:16
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 51 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 1 yd to the AFA 26 AIR FORCE Penalty, Personal Foul (12 Yards) to the AFA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20TD
5 plays · 87 yds · 1:050% → 2%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
99.8%
Karson Roberts run for 11 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+27
99.8%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 12 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+44
99.8%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 44 yds to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.7%
Roberts, Karson pass incomplete to Robinette, Jalen, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Cox, Demetrious) 3 yards to the MICHIGANST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AIRFORCE.Similar
Q4 2:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3099% → 99%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
98.6%
Madre London run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+4
98.8%
Madre London run for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 7
OPP 41
-4
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:28
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 32 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
+4
TD · Q2 10:40
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 28 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
+2
TD · Q3 8:38
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 38 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)
-1.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com