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CAL

California 55 at Air Force 36

AF
2015 · Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl · Dec 29, 2015 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:29 · Luke Strebel punt for 38 yds , Maurice Harris returns for 18 yds to the AFA 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.0+25.50−25.5−51.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Home team on offense+0.4Pregame prior−19.3Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:16: Kenny Lawler 24 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Matt Anderson Kick) — CAL win probability +8.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:04: Karson Roberts 1 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick) — AF win probability +10.3 pts (now 33%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:00: Kenny Lawler 14 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Matt Anderson Kick) — CAL win probability +9.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:04: Darius Powe 12 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Matt Anderson Kick) — CAL win probability +7.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:30: Timothy McVey 57 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Jacobi Owens Run for Two-Point Conversion) — AF win probability +11.0 pts (now 15%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 4:39AF 4th & 9 at AF 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:14CAL 4th & 5 at AF 5, tied
    Close callWent for it · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    61.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    59.2%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:29AF 4th & 5 at AF 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:03CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:38AF 4th & 12 at AF 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:46AF 4th & 10 at AF 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:00AF 4th & 1 at AF 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.1%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:44CAL 4th & 3 at AF 12, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−2.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:26CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 18, up 23
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:13CAL 4th & 6 at AF 13, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 8:33AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:46CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:02CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:39AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:37CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:16CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 3:04AF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 2:00CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 11:04CAL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:30AF Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 0:17CAL Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 9:14AF Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1TD
13 plays · 68 yds · 6:1726% → 32%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
26.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+3
26.3%
Garrett Brown run for 3 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
26.6%
Timothy McVey run for no gain to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
26.8%
Timothy McVey run for 4 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+14
27.1%
Karson Roberts run for 14 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
27.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+23
28.1%
Garrett Brown run for 23 yds to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
28.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the Cal 9Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+3
28.9%
Tyler Williams run for 3 yds to the Cal 6Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+3
29.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Face Mask (3 yards) (Stefan McClure) to the Cal 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
29.5%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds to the Cal 1Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.7%
Jacobi Owens 1 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:3469% → 71%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
31.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 4 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+32
31.2%
Tre Watson run for 32 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
30.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Personal Foul (Weston Steelhammer) to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
30.9%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Darius PoweSimilar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+9
31.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 9 yds to the AFA 5Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+3
31.7%
Vic Enwere run for 3 yds to the AFA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
31.7%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd to the AFA 1Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.1%
Vic Enwere 1 Yd Run (Matt Anderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5331% → 30%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
30.5%
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
30.8%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
30.4%
Karson Roberts pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
30.2%
Luke Strebel punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Trevor Davis at the Cal 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4FUMBLE
10 plays · 44 yds · 2:1669% → 69%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
30.6%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+25
30.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chad Hansen for 25 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
30.1%
Tre Watson run for no gain to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
30.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Darius PoweSimilar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+29
30.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 29 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
30.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 7 yds to the AFA 3Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
29.8%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q1 2:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
30.6%
Jared Goff run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 5Similar
Q1 2:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
-17
31.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 17 yards to the AFA 22 TEAM fumbled, recovered by AFA D.J. Dunn Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3933% → 33%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
32.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 23Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+4
33.0%
Garrett Brown run for 4 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
33.2%
Karson Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+18
32.9%
Luke Strebel punt for 38 yds , Maurice Harris returns for 18 yds to the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 0:1869% → 73%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
31.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 17 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
26.9%
Bryce Treggs 30 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Matt Anderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 2:1629% → 38%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
29.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+23
29.4%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 23 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
30.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+12
31.1%
Timothy McVey run for 12 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
37.9%
Tyler Williams 16 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2366% → 64%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
34.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Maurice HarrisSimilar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
34.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Darius PoweSimilar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
35.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Khalfani MuhammadSimilar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
35.6%
Cole Leininger punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:1637% → 37%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
37.2%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+1
36.2%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 19
OWN 33
+6
36.4%
Karson Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+1
36.6%
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 12
OWN 40
+7
36.6%
Luke Strebel punt for 38 yds , Trevor Davis returns for 7 yds to the Cal 47 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Cal 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 1:5565% → 74%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
35.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+11
35.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 11 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
35.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 1 yd to the Cal 31Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+18
35.8%
Tre Watson run for 18 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
34.1%
Tre Watson run for 6 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+40
33.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 40 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
26.0%
Darius Powe 5 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Matt Anderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
28.8%
Karson Roberts run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 24 Karson Roberts fumbled, recovered by Cal Kyle KragenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12TD
1 play · 24 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
20.0%
Kenny Lawler 24 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Matt Anderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:5622% → 33%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
21.7%
Karson Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+6
22.3%
Karson Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
22.5%
Jalen Robinette pass incomplete to Timothy McVeySimilar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+13
22.4%
Garrett Brown run for 13 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
22.4%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
22.4%
Karson Roberts run for 6 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+19
22.3%
Timothy McVey run for 19 yds to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
22.8%
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd to the Cal 12 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Personal Foul (6 Yards) to the Cal 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
22.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the Cal 1Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.0%
Karson Roberts 1 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 0:4073% → 83%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
27.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Tre Watson for 9 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+55
26.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 55 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
17.3%
Kenny Lawler 14 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Matt Anderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:5520% → 19%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
19.8%
Garrett Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 11
OWN 30
-3
19.4%
Garrett Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+4
17.9%
Timothy McVey run for 4 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 10
OWN 31
+11
19.2%
Luke Strebel punt for 34 yds , Trevor Davis returns for 11 yds to the Cal 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -10 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:25
2ND & 6
50
-14
17.0%
Jared Goff sacked by Ryan Watson for a loss of 14 yards to the Cal 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 3:4382% → 93%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
17.9%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+14
17.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Stephen Anderson for 14 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
16.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+11
17.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 11 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+2
16.4%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
16.2%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
50
+15
15.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 15 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
15.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 8 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+3
14.9%
Vic Enwere run for 3 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
14.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Roughing Passer (12 Yards) to the AFA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
6.6%
Darius Powe 12 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Matt Anderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18FUMBLE
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:2511% → 10%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
11.0%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
10.6%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+2
10.3%
Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+3
9.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
9.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 9 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+6
9.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+23
9.4%
Bryan Driskell run for 23 yds to the Cal 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
9.7%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the Cal 6Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+5
10.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds Jacobi Owens fumbled, recovered by CalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 3:3397% → 98%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
3.0%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
3.0%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the Cal 20Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+44
3.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 44 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
2.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor DavisSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
2.5%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 6 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+11
2.2%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 11 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
2.0%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 1 yd to the AFA 18Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+6
1.9%
Tre Watson run for 6 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 3
OPP 12
0
1.8%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
2.0%
Matt Anderson 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:004% → 15%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
4.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+8
3.9%
Bryan Driskell run for 8 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
14.9%
Timothy McVey 57 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Jacobi Owens Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 0:5895% → 98%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+41
5.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 41 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
4.4%
Tre Watson run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+25
1.6%
Kenny Lawler 25 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Matt Anderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22INT
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:003% → 3%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
3.3%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 20Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+14
3.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 14 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
3.0%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 14 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
2.8%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 15 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
2.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
2.9%
Karson Roberts pass intercepted Luke Rubenzer return for no gain to the Cal 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2898% → 99%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
1.7%
Vic Enwere run for 5 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+1
1.5%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd to the Cal 18Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
1.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Khalfani MuhammadSimilar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 4
OWN 18
0
1.4%
Cole Leininger punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:542% → 8%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
2.3%
Karson Roberts run for 21 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
2.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
2.5%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+13
2.3%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 13 yds to the Cal 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
2.6%
Karson Roberts pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
2.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+15
8.1%
Jalen Robinette 15 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Luke Strebel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25FG
20 plays · 53 yds · 7:4797% → 98%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
3.2%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 6 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+12
2.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 12 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
2.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chad Hansen for 5 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
2.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
2.1%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
2.2%
Tre Watson run for no gain to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-5
2.1%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (Kenny Lawler) to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+15
2.1%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 15 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
1.7%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Rigsbee) to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+2
1.8%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 18
OPP 35
+16
1.6%
Trevor Davis run for 16 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+2
1.4%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
1.2%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the AFA 16Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
1.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the AFA 16Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+3
1.0%
Vic Enwere run for 3 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q4 1:13
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
2.3%
Matt Anderson 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:541% → 1%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
1.3%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Garrett GriffinSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+8
1.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 8 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+12
1.4%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 12 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
1.4%
Karson Roberts sacked by Kyle Kragen for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:30
Timothy McVey 57 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Jacobi Owens Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+11
TD · Q2 3:04
Karson Roberts 1 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)
+10.3
TD · Q2 2:00
Kenny Lawler 14 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Matt Anderson Kick)
-9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com