The Citadel
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Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2020
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what The Citadel allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for The Citadel.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than The Citadel's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.01 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at ARMYQ3 9:28 4th & 3 at ARMY 30, down 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
- at ARMYQ4 13:29 4th & 10 at ARMY 32, down 11Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.1 pts
- at ARMYQ2 10:19 4th & 3 at CIT 43, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at CLEMQ2 0:32 4th & 9 at CLEM 38, down 49Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.1 pts
- at USFQ2 0:45 4th & 3 at USF 18, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.1 pts
- at ARMYQ1 7:23 4th & 3 at ARMY 48, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at ARMYQ1 0:00 4th & 4 at ARMY 22, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
- at CLEMQ4 0:45 4th & 1 at CIT 36, down 49Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (31)
- Q1 4:074th & 17 at USF 28, tied · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 11:084th & 13 at USF 24, down 4 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 6:524th & 16 at CIT 10, down 1 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 6:524th & 10 at CIT 34, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 0:454th & 3 at USF 18, down 14 · Went for itClose call
- Q3 13:194th & 8 at CIT 39, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 5:224th & 1 at CIT 19, down 14 · Went for itAgreed
- Q3 5:224th & 18 at CIT 13, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 13:444th & 14 at USF 47, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 6:554th & 10 at USF 48, down 21 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 10:104th & 2 at CIT 33, down 7 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 14:134th & 14 at CIT 12, down 28 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 10:594th & 11 at CIT 24, down 35 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 8:314th & 22 at CIT 13, down 42 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 0:324th & 9 at CLEM 38, down 49 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 12:294th & 8 at CIT 44, down 49 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 6:484th & 5 at CIT 37, down 49 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 5:434th & 11 at CLEM 44, down 49 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 2:234th & 9 at CIT 20, down 49 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 12:534th & 10 at CLEM 30, down 49 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q4 7:104th & 3 at CIT 42, down 49 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 0:454th & 1 at CIT 36, down 49 · Went for itClose call
- Q1 12:474th & 7 at CIT 33, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 7:234th & 3 at ARMY 48, tied · PuntedClose call
- Q1 0:004th & 4 at ARMY 22, tied · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q2 10:194th & 3 at CIT 43, up 3 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 14:554th & 1 at ARMY 43, down 4 · Went for itAgreed
- Q3 9:284th & 3 at ARMY 30, down 4 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q3 2:254th & 3 at CIT 32, down 11 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 13:294th & 10 at ARMY 32, down 11 · Went for itClose call
- Q4 13:294th & 5 at ARMY 37, down 11 · Went for itAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2020
Expected wins adds up The Citadel's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2020
Every game starts at The Citadel's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.28
- Timeouts−0.01
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.15
Game by game
- USFL 6-27 at USF14% → 0%Before kickoff −36 · On the field −13: Scoreboard −17
- CLEML 0-49 at CLEM0% → 0%Before kickoff −50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −1
- ARMYL 9-14 at ARMY3% → 4%Before kickoff −47 · On the field +1: Scoreboard −9, Timeouts −1
Points of win probability, from The Citadel's side.
Closest call
CIT 27-24 GT (2019) - The Citadel dropped to a 4.5% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2020
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is The Citadel's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2020
The largest single-play change in The Citadel's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
The Citadel's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
The Citadel's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
The Citadel's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
The Citadel's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.