The Citadel
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2015
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what The Citadel allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for The Citadel.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2015
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than The Citadel's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.09 of the 0.10 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at SCQ4 1:35 4th & 5 at SC 39, up 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it5.8 pts
- at SCQ2 0:03 4th & 11 at CIT 19, up 5Went for it; the numbers favored punting1.8 pts
- at SCQ3 15:00 4th & 3 at SC 42, up 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it1.4 pts
- at SCQ2 12:55 4th & 5 at SC 38, up 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.5 pts
Every call this season (13)
- Close callQ2 12:554th & 5 at SC 38, up 8, Punted
- AgreedQ2 4:124th & 17 at CIT 18, up 5, Punted
- 1.8 ptsQ2 0:034th & 11 at CIT 19, up 5, Went for it
- 1.4 ptsQ3 15:004th & 3 at SC 42, up 5, Punted
- AgreedQ3 6:214th & 9 at CIT 26, down 2, Punted
- AgreedQ4 15:004th & 1 at SC 26, down 2, Went for it
- AgreedQ4 10:264th & 16 at SC 31, down 2, Kicked a field goal
- 5.8 ptsQ4 1:354th & 5 at SC 39, up 1, Punted
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2015
Expected wins adds up The Citadel's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2015
Every game starts at The Citadel's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard+0.30
- Possession & field position+0.03
- Clock+0.04
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.39
Game by game
- GASOL 13-48 at GASO4% → 0%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −6
- SCW 23-22 at SC7% → 86%Before kickoff −43 · On the field +79: Scoreboard +35, Clock +4
Points of win probability, from The Citadel's side.
Closest call
CIT 27-24 GT (2019) - The Citadel dropped to a 4.5% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2015
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is The Citadel's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2015
The largest single-play change in The Citadel's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
The Citadel's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
The Citadel's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
The Citadel's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
The Citadel's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.