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CIT

The Citadel 7 at North Carolina 41

UNC
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadCIT aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreCIT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:26 · Grant Drakeford run for no gain to the NCaro 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:10: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 19 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +0.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:15: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 72 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +1.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:09: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 23 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +2.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 9:54: Dominique Allen pass intercepted for a TD Dominquie Green return for 58 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +1.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CIT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 14:46: Jacob Godek kickoff for 65 yds , T.J. Logan return for 100 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CIT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CIT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 8:04CIT 4th & 3 at UNC 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.6%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:04UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:29CIT 4th & 2 at CIT 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:10CIT 4th & 3 at CIT 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00CIT 4th & 6 at UNC 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:54CIT 4th & 3 at CIT 32, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:42UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 44, up 28
    Close callPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:59UNC 4th & 6 at CIT 6, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:41CIT 4th & 6 at CIT 34, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:09UNC 4th & 7 at CIT 49, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:29UNC 4th & 7 at CIT 24, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:29CIT 4th & 2 at CIT 46, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:08UNC 4th & 11 at CIT 19, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:16UNC 4th & 24 at UNC 27, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CIT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 3:10UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:15UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:09UNC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:54UNC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:46UNC Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:21CIT Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CITDrive 1MISSED FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 6:565% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.9%
Reggie Williams run for 4 yds to the Citad 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
94.9%
Tyler Renew run for 4 yds to the Citad 33 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Cayson Collins) to the Citad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
94.9%
Tyler Renew run for 4 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+4
94.9%
Tyler Renew run for 4 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+4
94.9%
Tyler Renew run for 4 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
94.9%
Tyler Renew run for 6 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+4
94.9%
Tyler Renew run for 4 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
94.9%
Rod Johnson run for 15 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
94.9%
Tyler Renew run for 3 yds to the NCaro 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-5
94.9%
THE CITADEL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+5
94.9%
Tyler Renew run for 5 yds to the NCaro 12Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+4
94.9%
Reggie Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
93.1%
Cody Clark 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
93.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 6 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
93.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+2
93.1%
Tom Sheldon punt for 42 yds , DeAndre Schoultz returns for 2 yds to the Citad 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
93.0%
Reggie Williams run for 9 yds to the Citad 43Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 1
OWN 43
0
92.8%
Dominique Allen pass incomplete to Rod JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-1
92.9%
Tyler Renew run for a loss of 1 yard to the Citad 42Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
93.0%
Will Vanvick punt for 34 yds, downed at the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 2:4793% → 93%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
92.6%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+12
92.7%
Mitch Trubisky run for 12 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
92.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
92.8%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+16
92.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 16 yds to the Citad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
92.9%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the Citad 36Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+18
92.9%
Elijah Hood run for 18 yds to the Citad 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
93.0%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Citad 19Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+19
93.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 19 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.0%
Reggie Williams run for no gain to the Citad 25Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.1%
Tyler Renew run for 5 yds to the Citad 30Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
93.1%
Reggie Williams run for 2 yds to the Citad 32Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
93.2%
Will Vanvick punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
1 play · 72 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
94.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 72 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 35 yds · 1:156% → 6%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
93.9%
N/A run for a loss of 6 yards to the Citad 19Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+15
94.0%
Dominique Allen pass complete to Rod Johnson for 15 yds to the Citad 34Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
93.8%
Tyler Renew run for 2 yds to the Citad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
93.8%
Rod Johnson run for 20 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
93.6%
Tyler Renew run for 4 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+2
93.5%
Rod Johnson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+3
93.6%
Tyler Renew run for 3 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 35
-5
93.7%
THE CITADEL Penalty, false start (Reggie Williams) to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
93.8%
Dominique Allen pass incomplete to Rod JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:2294% → 97%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
94.3%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+15
94.1%
Trubisky, M sideline pass incomplete to Logan, T, QB hurry by Kevin Graham, PENALTY CIT pass interference (Myles Pierce) 15 yards to the CIT49, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
94.4%
T.J. Logan run for 23 yds to the Citad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
94.4%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the Citad 23Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+23
96.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 23 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 9INT TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:154% → 2%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.3%
Tyler Renew run for no gain to the Citad 35Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
96.3%
Rod Johnson run for no gain to the Citad 35Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+58
98.2%
Dominique Allen pass intercepted for a TD Dominquie Green return for 58 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.2%
Tyler Renew run for 4 yds to the Citad 29Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
98.1%
Tyler Renew run for 3 yds to the Citad 32Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
98.1%
Tyler Renew run for no gain to the Citad 32Similar
Q2 9:54
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+31
98.1%
Will Vanvick punt for 53 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 31 yds to the UNC 37 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (M.J. Stewart) to the NCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
98.6%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
98.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Thomas JacksonSimilar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+3
98.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for 3 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
98.4%
Tom Sheldon punt for 38 yds, downed at the Citad 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 12FUMBLE
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
98.8%
Dominique Allen run for no gain to the Citad 18Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-9
98.8%
Rod Johnson rush left for 4 yards to the CIT22 (Bonilla, A), PENALTY CIT holding (Isaiah Pinson) 9 yards to the CIT9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 19
OWN 9
+21
98.9%
Dominique Allen run for 21 yds to the Citad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
98.8%
Reggie Williams run for 4 yds to the Citad 34Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+1
98.7%
Tyler Renew run for 1 yd to the Citad 35Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+11
98.7%
Rod Johnson run for 11 yds to the Citad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
98.8%
Reggie Williams run for 1 yd to the Citad 47 Reggie Williams fumbled, forced by Cayson Collins, recovered by NCaro Malik CarneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 5:1099% → 99%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
98.8%
Elijah Hood run for 15 yds to the Citad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
98.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 7 yds to the Citad 25Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+20
98.7%
Mitch Trubisky run for 20 yds to the Citad 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
98.7%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 3 yards to the Citad 8Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
99.2%
Anthony Ratliff-Williams run for 2 yds to the Citad 6Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin Proehl, broken up by Ben RobertsSimilar
Q2 0:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
99.2%
Nick Weiler 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.2%
Grant Drakeford run for 6 yds to the Citad 31Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
99.1%
Reggie Williams run for 4 yds to the Citad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.2%
Dominique Allen pass incomplete to Rudder BrownSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.2%
Dominique Allen pass complete to Grant Drakeford for 2 yds to the Citad 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
99.4%
Dominique Allen run for 6 yds to the Citad 23Similar
Q3 14:41
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+7
99.5%
Reggie Williams run for 7 yds to the Citad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.4%
Grant Drakeford run for 2 yds to the Citad 32Similar
Q3 14:41
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+1
99.4%
Reggie Williams run for 1 yd to the Citad 33Similar
Q3 14:41
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+1
99.4%
Grant Drakeford run for 1 yd to the Citad 34Similar
Q3 14:41
4TH & 6
OWN 34
-6
99.5%
Will Vanvick punt for 48 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 28 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, illegal block (Des Lawrence) to the NCaro 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 45 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
99.6%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the NCaro 7Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+16
99.6%
Elijah Hood run for 16 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
99.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 8 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+17
99.7%
Elijah Hood run for 17 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
99.7%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+2
99.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 2 yds T.J. Logan fumbled, forced by Travis Johnson, recovered by NCaro R.J. PrinceSimilar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
99.6%
Tom Sheldon punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
99.7%
Dominique Allen run for 11 yds to the Citad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
99.7%
Grant Drakeford run for a loss of 4 yards to the Citad 27 Grant Drakeford fumbled, recovered by NCaro M.J. StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.7%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the Citad 24Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
99.7%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the Citad 24Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
99.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
99.8%
Nick Weiler 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 20FUMBLE
11 plays · 53 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
Tyler Renew run for 3 yds to the Citad 28Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.8%
Tyler Renew run for 4 yds to the Citad 32Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
99.8%
Tyler Renew run for 6 yds to the Citad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.8%
Grant Drakeford run for 4 yds to the Citad 42Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
99.8%
Reggie Williams run for 1 yd to the Citad 43Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+3
99.8%
Grant Drakeford run for 3 yds to the Citad 46Similar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+14
99.7%
Reggie Williams run for 14 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
99.8%
Dominique Allen run for 7 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 3
OPP 33
-3
99.7%
Grant Drakeford run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+25
99.8%
Tyler Renew run for 11 yds to the NCaro 47 Tyler Renew fumbled, forced by Malik Carney, recovered by NCaro M.J. Stewart , return for 25 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21MISSED FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+23
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky run for 23 yds to the Citad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
99.9%
Khris Francis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Citad 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+14
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 14 yds to the Citad 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
99.9%
Francis, K rush left for 2 yards to the CIT16 (Kailik Williams), PENALTY NC holding (Crowley, L) 10 yards to the CIT28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 28
-5
99.9%
Trubisky, M sideline pass incomplete to Ratliff, A, PENALTY NC ineligible downfield on pass (Sweet, W) 5 yards to the CIT33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 25
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Jordan CunninghamSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 25
OPP 33
+14
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Khris Francis for 14 yds to the Citad 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 19
0
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+36
99.9%
Nick Weiler 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 22TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:470% → 0%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.9%
Reggie Williams run for 7 yds to the Citad 27Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
Grant Drakeford run for 9 yds to the Citad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.9%
Evan McField run for 6 yds to the Citad 42Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+13
99.9%
Reggie Williams run for 13 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
99.9%
Grant Drakeford run for 7 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+4
99.9%
Dominique Allen run for 4 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
99.9%
Evan McField run for 6 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+28
99.9%
Grant Drakeford run for 28 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
99.9%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+9
99.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 9 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
99.9%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 11
OWN 40
-15
99.9%
Brown, J rush draw play for 8 yards to the NC48 (Malik Diggs), PENALTY NC face mask (Henson, B) 15 yards to the NC25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 26
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Nathan Elliott run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 24
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 24
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Tom Sheldon punt for 48 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Schoultz at the Citad 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 24END OF GAME
14 plays · 45 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Grant Drakeford run for 8 yds to the Citad 31 Grant Drakeford fumbled, forced by Ayden Bonilla, recovered by Citad Jorian Jordan , return for no gain to the Citad 31Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Evan McField run for no gain to the Citad 31Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
99.9%
Evan McField run for 4 yds to the Citad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Jonathan Dorogy run for 6 yds to the Citad 41Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
Evan McField run for 3 yds to the Citad 44Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
99.9%
Evan McField run for 2 yds to the Citad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
99.9%
Grant Drakeford run for 8 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 2
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Jordan Black pass incomplete to Grant DrakefordSimilar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+6
99.9%
Grant Drakeford run for 6 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
99.9%
Jonathan Dorogy run for 6 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 4
OPP 34
-1
99.9%
Jonathan Dorogy run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+10
99.9%
Jordan Black pass complete to Rudder Brown for 10 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
99.9%
Jordan Black sacked by Aaron Crawford for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 15
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Grant Drakeford run for no gain to the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:09
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 23 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q2 9:54
Dominique Allen pass intercepted for a TD Dominquie Green return for 58 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q1 1:15
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 72 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com