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CIT

The Citadel 6 at South Florida 27

USF
2020 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadCIT aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreCIT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:44 · Matt Campbell punt for 33 yds , KJ Sails returns for no gain to the SFla 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Pregame prior+9.7Home team on offense+17.6Score differential+6.2Garbage-time factor+5.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 4:07: Colby Kintner 45 yd FG GOOD — CIT win probability +1.9 pts (now 18%) (top driver: CIT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 11:08: Colby Kintner 41 yd FG GOOD — CIT win probability +1.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 6:52: SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Citad 8 — USF win probability +4.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:30: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Latrell Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 44 — USF win probability +4.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:52: Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +3.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 7CIT made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:07USF 4th & 4 at CIT 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    86.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:07CIT 4th & 17 at USF 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:08CIT 4th & 13 at USF 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:08USF 4th & 4 at CIT 44, up 1
    Close callPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:52CIT 4th & 16 at CIT 10, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:52CIT 4th & 10 at CIT 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:45CIT 4th & 3 at USF 18, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.5%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:19USF 4th & 12 at CIT 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:19CIT 4th & 8 at CIT 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:30USF 4th & 4 at CIT 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    91.4%−1.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:22CIT 4th & 1 at CIT 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.2%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:22CIT 4th & 18 at CIT 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−2.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00USF 4th & 17 at USF 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:44CIT 4th & 14 at USF 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:55CIT 4th & 10 at USF 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:43USF 4th & 7 at CIT 47, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:39USF 4th & 2 at CIT 12, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−<0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:49USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 6:52USF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CITDrive 1FUMBLE
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.4%
Cooper Wallace run for 4 yds to the Citad 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
86.4%
Cooper Wallace run for 4 yds to the Citad 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
86.4%
Keefe White run for 12 yds to the Citad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
86.4%
Brandon Rainey run for 6 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+3
86.4%
Brandon Rainey run for 3 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
86.4%
Brandon Rainey run for 1 yd to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
86.4%
Logan Braucht run for 2 yds to the SFla 39 Logan Braucht fumbled, forced by Rashawn Yates, recovered by SFla Mike Hampton , return for no gain to the SFla 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2DOWNS
11 plays · 27 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
85.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 8 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+1
85.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 1 yd to the SFla 48Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+1
85.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
85.8%
Jordan McCloud run for 2 yds to the Citad 49Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+7
85.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to DeVontres Dukes for 7 yds to the Citad 42Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 1
OPP 42
-5
85.8%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Citad 47Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+7
85.8%
Jordan McCloud run for 7 yds to the Citad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
85.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
85.8%
Johnny Ford run for a loss of 5 yards to the Citad 45Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+11
85.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Johnny Ford for 11 yds to the Citad 34Similar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 4
OPP 34
0
85.7%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Kelley JoinerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 3FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:1616% → 18%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
84.3%
Keefe White run for 11 yds to the Citad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
84.1%
Darique Hampton run for 1 yd to the Citad 46Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+23
84.1%
Brandon Rainey pass complete to Keefe White for 23 yds to the SOUFLA 31 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
83.9%
Brandon Rainey run for 6 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
83.9%
Brandon Rainey pass incomplete to Logan BrauchtSimilar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+4
84.0%
Brandon Rainey run for 4 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
83.9%
Logan Braucht run for 2 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-1
83.9%
Darique Hampton run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 20Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
84.0%
Keefe White run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 23 Keefe White fumbled, recovered by Citad Keefe White , return for no gain to the SFla 23Similar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 12
OPP 23
-5
84.4%
THE CITADEL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 17
OPP 28
+45
82.5%
Colby Kintner 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:1882% → 84%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
82.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Johnny Ford for 4 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+12
82.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 12 yds to the Citad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
82.9%
Kelley Joiner run for 5 yds to the Citad 41Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+3
82.9%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the Citad 38Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+12
82.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 12 yds to the Citad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
83.1%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the Citad 22Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+12
83.1%
Johnny Ford run for 12 yds to the Citad 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
83.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to DeVontres Dukes for 10 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) THE CITADEL Penalty, ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 5FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 4:4117% → 19%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
82.8%
Logan Braucht run for 4 yds to the Citad 26Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
82.7%
Brandon Rainey run for no gain to the Citad 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+41
82.9%
Raleigh Webb run for 41 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
81.3%
Logan Braucht run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
-2
81.2%
Cooper Wallace run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+10
81.7%
Brandon Rainey pass complete to Ryan McCarthy for 10 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
81.2%
Logan Braucht run for 5 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-15
81.2%
THE CITADEL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Raleigh Webb) to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 31
+5
81.7%
Logan Braucht run for 5 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 26
+2
82.2%
Logan Braucht run for 2 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 13
OPP 24
+41
81.1%
Colby Kintner 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
81.0%
Darrian Felix run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 24Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+14
80.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 14 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
81.5%
Darrian Felix run for 8 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+4
82.0%
Darrian Felix run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
50
0
82.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 10
50
+6
81.9%
Johnny Ford run for 6 yds to the Citad 44Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
81.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
81.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 7PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3120% → 15%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
79.7%
Brandon Rainey run for 2 yds to the Citad 18Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 8
OWN 18
-3
79.8%
Darique Hampton run for a loss of 3 yards to the Citad 15Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 11
OWN 15
0
80.5%
Brandon Rainey pass incomplete to Raleigh Webb, broken up by Mike HamptonSimilar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 11
OWN 15
-5
80.9%
THE CITADEL Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Citad 10Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 16
OWN 10
0
84.6%
Matt Campbell punt for a loss of 10 yards , Omarion Dollison returns for no gain for a TD SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Citad 8 (Spencer Shrader PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 6:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
88.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Citad 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
87.8%
Logan Braucht run for 2 yds to the Citad 36Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
87.7%
Brandon Rainey pass incomplete to Keefe WhiteSimilar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-2
87.9%
Keefe White run for a loss of 2 yards to the Citad 34Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
88.2%
Matt Campbell punt for 41 yds , KJ Sails returns for no gain to the SFla 34 THE CITADEL Penalty, kick catching interference (Brian Horn) to the SFla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:2789% → 89%
Q2 6:52
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
88.6%
Noah Johnson run for 9 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
88.9%
Johnny Ford run for 3 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+43
89.0%
Johnny Ford run for 43 yds to the Citad 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
89.1%
JOHNSON, Noah rush for 1 yard to the CIT13 (Dalton Owens), PENALTY USF holding (MARCELLUS, Jean) 10 yards to the CIT24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+14
89.1%
Noah Johnson run for 14 yds to the Citad 10Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+1
89.1%
Noah Johnson run for 1 yd to the Citad 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 11MISSED FG
16 plays · 56 yds · 2:4111% → 10%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
89.1%
Logan Braucht run for a loss of 2 yards to the Citad 23Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
89.2%
Brandon Rainey run for 15 yds to the Citad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
88.9%
Brandon Rainey pass incomplete to Raleigh WebbSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
89.0%
Logan Braucht run for 3 yds to the Citad 41Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+34
89.1%
Brandon Rainey pass complete to Ryan McCarthy for 34 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
87.7%
Brandon Rainey pass incomplete to Ryan McCarthySimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
87.9%
Brandon Rainey run for 2 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+5
88.2%
Brandon Rainey run for 5 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+5
88.3%
Brandon Rainey run for 5 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
88.9%
Brandon Rainey pass incomplete to Raleigh WebbSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
88.9%
Brandon Rainey sacked by Antonio Grier for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 19 Brandon Rainey fumbled, , return for 0 yards , return for 0 yards to the SFla 19Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 16
OPP 19
+36
90.5%
Colby Kintner 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12MISSED FG
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:4190% → 90%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+41
90.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 41 yds to the Citad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
90.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for a loss of 1 yard to the Citad 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
90.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 25
-1
90.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for a loss of 1 yard to the Citad 26Similar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+43
89.6%
Spencer Shrader 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
89.6%
Keefe White run for 7 yds to the Citad 33Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+1
88.9%
Logan Braucht run for 1 yd to the Citad 34Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
89.2%
Brandon Rainey run for 3 yds to the Citad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
89.2%
Brandon Rainey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Citad 35Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+3
89.7%
Keefe White run for 3 yds to the Citad 38Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+1
89.4%
Brandon Rainey run for 1 yd to the Citad 39Similar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
89.9%
Matt Campbell punt for 46 yds, fair catch by KJ Sails at the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 42 yds · 4:2291% → 91%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
91.0%
Noah Johnson run for 4 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+6
91.1%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 6 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.1%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
91.1%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Bryce Miller for 10 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
91.4%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to DeVontres DukesSimilar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
91.4%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+8
91.1%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 8 yds to the Citad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
91.6%
Bryce Miller run for 4 yds to the Citad 45Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
91.5%
Noah Johnson run for 3 yds to the Citad 42Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-1
91.2%
Kelley Joiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Citad 43Similar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
90.7%
Trent Schneider punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 3 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
89.9%
Brandon Rainey run for 9 yds to the Citad 19Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 1
OWN 19
0
89.1%
Brandon Rainey pass incomplete to Cooper WallaceSimilar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 1
OWN 19
0
90.0%
Brandon Rainey run for no gain to the Citad 19Similar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+2
90.3%
Keefe White run for 2 yds to the Citad 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
89.7%
Brandon Rainey run for 7 yds to the Citad 28Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 3
OWN 28
-5
88.8%
THE CITADEL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Citad 23Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-10
89.9%
Keefe White run for 3 yds to the Citad 26 THE CITADEL Penalty, illegal block (Raleigh Webb) to the Citad 13Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 18
OWN 13
0
90.1%
Darique Hampton run for no gain to the Citad 13Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 18
OWN 13
0
90.2%
Brandon Rainey pass incomplete to Keefe WhiteSimilar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 18
OWN 13
0
90.4%
Matt Campbell punt for 42 yds, fair catch by KJ Sails at the SFla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:3095% → 94%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
94.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Latrell Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
94.8%
Johnny Ford run for no gain to the SFla 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 44
-6
94.5%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Willie Eubanks III for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 38
+2
93.7%
Trent Schneider punt for 43 yds , Dominick Poole returns for 2 yds to the Citad 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
92.3%
Clay Harris run for 1 yd to the Citad 22Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+8
92.3%
Keefe White run for 8 yds to the Citad 30Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+3
91.4%
Brandon Rainey run for 3 yds to the Citad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
91.5%
Logan Braucht run for no gain to the Citad 33Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
91.6%
Brandon Rainey pass incomplete to Keefe WhiteSimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+24
92.5%
Raleigh Webb run for 9 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Blake Green) to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
90.9%
Brandon Rainey run for 1 yd to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-5
90.8%
THE CITADEL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 47Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 14
OPP 47
0
91.4%
Brandon Rainey pass incomplete to Ryan McCarthySimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 14
OPP 47
0
92.1%
Brandon Rainey pass incomplete to Ryan McCarthySimilar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
92.3%
Matt Campbell punt for 33 yds , KJ Sails returns for no gain to the SFla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 3:0296% → 100%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+27
95.8%
Kelley Joiner run for 27 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
96.3%
Brian Battie run for 10 yds to the Citad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
96.3%
Noah Johnson sacked by Marquise Blount for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+20
96.2%
Noah Johnson run for 20 yds to the Citad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
96.3%
Omarion Dollison run for 19 yds to the Citad 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
96.3%
Brian Battie run for 9 yds to the Citad 3Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
99.5%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
99.0%
Cooper Wallace run for 8 yds to the Citad 37Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+15
99.0%
Brandon Rainey pass incomplete to Darique Hampton, PENALTY USF unsportsmanlike conduct (LOGAN, Tramel) 15 yards to the USF48, 1ST DOWN CIT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
99.0%
Cooper Wallace run for a loss of 3 yards to the Citad 49Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 13
OWN 49
0
99.0%
Brandon Rainey pass incomplete to Raleigh WebbSimilar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 13
OWN 49
+3
99.1%
Logan Braucht run for 3 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
99.0%
Matt Campbell punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 43 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+19
99.6%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Sincere Brown for 19 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+21
99.6%
Odunayo Seriki run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
50
+4
99.6%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Sean Atkins for 4 yds to the Citad 46Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
99.6%
Odunayo Seriki run for 3 yds to the Citad 43Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-4
99.6%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Jacob Mathis for a loss of 4 yards to the Citad 47Similar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
99.5%
Trent Schneider punt for 33 yds , Dominick Poole returns for no gain to the Citad 20 Dominick Poole fumbled, recovered by SFla Brock Nichols , return for no gain to the Citad 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:33100% → 100%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-9
99.7%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Terrence Horne for a loss of 9 yards to the Citad 29Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 19
OPP 29
-7
99.7%
Katravis Marsh sacked by Dewey Greene IV for a loss of 7 yards to the Citad 36Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 26
OPP 36
+24
99.6%
Brian Battie run for 24 yds to the Citad 12Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 2
OPP 12
0
99.8%
Katravis Marsh pass incomplete to Sincere Brown, broken up by Destin Mack SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 22INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
99.5%
Brandon Rainey pass incomplete to Raleigh WebbSimilar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+17
99.5%
Brandon Rainey pass complete to Keefe White for 17 yds to the Citad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-18
99.5%
Brandon Rainey pass intercepted Mekhi LaPointe return for 18 yds to the Citad 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Citad 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 0:30
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Latrell Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 44
+4.4
TD · Q2 6:52
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Citad 8
+4.3
TD · Q4 6:52
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)
+3.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com