2020 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2020 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadCIT aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreCIT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:53 · Colby Kintner 47 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:00: Trevor Lawrence run for 2 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q1 1:51: Cooper Wallace run for a loss of 8 yards Cooper Wallace fumbled, recovered by Clem James Skalski , return for 17 yds (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CIT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:00: D.J. Uiagalelei run for 1 yd for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CIT win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 10:15: Travis Etienne run for 6 yds to the Clem 34 — CIT win probability +0.2 pts (now 0%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:55: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 54 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5CIT made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
- Q1 10:10CIT 4th & 2 at CIT 33, down 7Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 14:13CIT 4th & 14 at CIT 12, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 10:59CIT 4th & 11 at CIT 24, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q2 8:31CIT 4th & 22 at CIT 13, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q2 0:32CIT 4th & 9 at CLEM 38, down 49Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.132% to convertField goal0.2%38% to makePuntTheir call0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 12:29CIT 4th & 8 at CIT 44, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 8:16CLEM 4th & 2 at CIT 32, up 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%57% to convertField goal99.8%−0.151% to makePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q3 6:48CIT 4th & 5 at CIT 37, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 5:43CIT 4th & 11 at CLEM 44, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.127% to convertField goal0.0%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 3:58CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 28, up 49Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q3 2:23CIT 4th & 9 at CIT 20, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 14:49CLEM 4th & 3 at CIT 34, up 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%53% to convertField goal99.8%−0.147% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:53CIT 4th & 10 at CLEM 30, down 49Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−<0.129% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%56% to makePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:11CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 37, up 49Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 7:10CIT 4th & 3 at CIT 42, down 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 4:24CLEM 4th & 23 at CLEM 44, up 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 0:45CIT 4th & 1 at CIT 36, down 49Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.171% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 12:36CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:41CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:00CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:00CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:55CLEM Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:31CLEM Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q1 13:15
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+13
99.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 13 yds to the Citad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
99.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 11 yds to the Citad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 17 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:011% → 1%
Q1 10:10
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+21
99.4%
Matt Campbell punt for 42 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 21 yds to the CLEMSON 46 THE CITADEL Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Citad 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3TD2 plays · 49 yds · 0:29100% → 100%
CITDrive 4PUNT9 plays · -9 yds · 3:561% → 1%
Q1 9:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+16
99.4%
Brandon Rainey pass complete to Keyonte Sessions for 16 yds to the Citad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 26
OWN 24
-8
99.4%
Brandon Rainey run for a loss of 8 yards to the Citad 16 Brandon Rainey fumbled, recovered by CitadSimilar
Q1 5:45
4TH & 34
OWN 16
+16
99.3%
Matt Campbell punt for 45 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 16 yds to the Citad 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5TD9 plays · 45 yds · 3:4599% → 99%
CITDrive 6FUMBLE TD2 plays · -8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.7%
Cooper Wallace run for a loss of 8 yards Cooper Wallace fumbled, recovered by Clem James Skalski , return for 17 yds (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 7PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 2:120% → 0%
Q2 14:13
4TH & 14
OWN 12
+44
99.7%
Matt Campbell punt for 38 yds , Travis Etienne returns for 44 yds to the Citad 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8TD3 plays · 6 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q2 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
99.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 2 yds to the Citad 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q2 10:59
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
99.8%
Matt Campbell punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Derion Kendrick at the Clem 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10TD3 plays · 72 yds · 0:20100% → 100%
CITDrive 11PUNT6 plays · -12 yds · 0:590% → 0%
Q2 9:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
99.8%
THE CITADEL Penalty, False Start (Thomas Crawford) to the Citad 21Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-8
99.8%
Brandon Rainey sacked by Trenton Simpson for a loss of 8 yards to the Citad 13Similar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+47
99.8%
Matt Campbell punt for 47 yds , Derion Kendrick returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12TD9 plays · 61 yds · 2:39100% → 100%
CITDrive 13PUNT13 plays · 37 yds · 4:280% → 0%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
99.8%
Cooper Wallace run for a loss of 2 yards to the Citad 23 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Derion Kendrick) to the Citad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+22
99.9%
Brandon Rainey pass complete to Raleigh Webb for 22 yds to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14END OF HALF4 plays · 5 yds · 0:24100% → 100%
Q2 0:01
3RD & 3
OWN 15
-2
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 13 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Clem Taisun PhommachanhSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:010% → 0%
Q3 12:29
4TH & 8
OWN 44
+9
99.9%
Matt Campbell punt for 51 yds , Will Swinney returns for 9 yds to the Clem 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16FUMBLE10 plays · 54 yds · 3:59100% → 100%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 15
OWN 22
0
99.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to J.C. Chalk for no gain to the Clem 22Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 15
OWN 22
+38
99.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to E.J. Williams for 38 yds to the Citad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
99.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Swinney for 3 yds to the Citad 37Similar
Q3 8:16
4TH & 2
OPP 32
0
99.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei run for no gain to the Citad 32 D.J. Uiagalelei fumbled, forced by Jay Smith, recovered by Clem D.J. UiagaleleiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:200% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18FUMBLE2 plays · 7 yds · 0:09100% → 100%
CITDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:450% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:07100% → 100%
Q3 3:58
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Will Spiers punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Dominick Poole at the Citad 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q3 2:23
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Matt Campbell punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Will Swinney at the Clem 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22DOWNS7 plays · 34 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q3 0:30
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+19
99.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to E.J. Williams for 19 yds to the Citad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
99.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Drew Swinney for 3 yds to the Citad 38Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+2
99.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Kobe Pace for 2 yds to the Citad 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 23MISSED FG5 plays · 38 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+38
100.0%
Raleigh Webb pass complete to Ryan McCarthy for 38 yds to the Clem 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q4 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
99.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Chez Mellusi for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 25DOWNS9 plays · 21 yds · 3:500% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26PUNT5 plays · -13 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
100.0%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Drew Swinney for 3 yds to the Citad 40Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-2
100.0%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Kobe Pace for a loss of 2 yards to the Citad 47Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 14
OPP 47
-9
100.0%
Hunter Helms sacked by Chris Beverly for a loss of 9 yards to the Clem 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 27Uncategorized10 plays · 39 yds · 3:590% → 0%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-7
100.0%
Jaylan Adams sacked by Greg Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the Citad 5Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+2
100.0%
Jaylan Adams run for 2 yds to the Citad 27 for a 1ST down Darique Hampton for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-2
100.0%
Jaylan Adams sacked by Regan Upshaw and Kevin Swint for a loss of 2 yards to the Citad 32Similar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
100.0%
Jaylan Adams sacked by DeMonte Capehart for a loss of 6 yards to the Citad 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q1 1:51
Cooper Wallace run for a loss of 8 yards Cooper Wallace fumbled, recovered by Clem James Skalski , return for 17 yds (B.T. Potter KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 2:00
Trevor Lawrence run for 2 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
+0.2
KEY PLAY · Q2 10:15
Travis Etienne run for 6 yds to the Clem 34
-0.2