Sam Houston

Profile vs. FBS, 2026

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0218th
  Defense+0.1334th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.0%38th
  Defense43.0%31st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2653rd
  Defense+1.2251st
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.152nd
  Defense+0.311st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1840th
  Defense−0.0691st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.3%30th
  Defense50.8%18th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.1%53rd
  Defense26.7%68th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.323rd
  Defense3.3211th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense26.5%3rd
  Defense19.5%57th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.7%11th
  Defense20.1%88th

Percentiles among the 138 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2026

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Sam Houston allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   TROY
2. L
   TLSA
3. W
   NICH
4. L
   TTU
5. L
   LIB
6. L
   WKU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Sam Houston.

Players, 2026

1. Landyn LockeQB119 plays · +0.066 pts/play · 113th of 192 QBs
   0.15WAR−0.01 to 0.32
2. Chris ReedWR20 plays · +0.174 pts/play · 106th of 364 WRs
   0.07WAR0.04 to 0.10
3. Alton McCaskillRB44 plays · +0.074 pts/play · 162nd of 320 RBs
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.09
4. Landan BrownRB22 plays · +0.114 pts/play · 201st of 320 RBs
   0.05WAR0.03 to 0.07
5. Grady O'NeillWR18 plays · +0.125 pts/play · 177th of 364 WRs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.07
6. Tim Burns Jr.WR9 plays · +0.100 pts/play · 281st of 364 WRs
   0.02WAR0.01 to 0.03
7. Cal JosephP17 plays · −0.063 pts/play · 82nd of 84 punters
   −0.02WAR−0.04 to 0.00

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Sam Houston's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2026

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  554554117th of 138Roster talent: 554, 117th of 138 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  133133119th of 138Recruiting: 133, 119th of 138 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  58%58%46th of 136Returning production: 58%, 46th of 136 in FBS
• SP+ rating so far

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −16.5−16.5125th of 138SP+ rating so far: −16.5, 125th of 138 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 138 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion so far

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Sam Houston's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.02 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs TLSAQ2 1:13 4th & 1 at SHSU 33, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
2. vs TLSAQ1 1:34 4th & 1 at SHSU 21, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
3. at TTUQ4 14:57 4th & 11 at SHSU 17, down 21Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.3 pts
4. vs TLSAQ3 7:47 4th & 4 at SHSU 45, down 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
5. vs NICHQ2 8:24 4th & 3 at SHSU 26, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
6. vs NICHQ2 14:49 4th & 3 at SHSU 36, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
7. at TTUQ1 8:27 4th & 3 at TTU 30, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
8. at TTUQ4 12:37 4th & 6 at TTU 43, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2026

120th of 138 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Sam Houston's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   TROY
2. L

   TLSA
3. W

   NICH
4. L

   TTU
5. L

   LIB
6. L

   WKU

What moved it, 2026

Every game starts at Sam Houston's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.16
• Clock−0.05
• Timeouts−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.36

Game by game

• TROYL 21-24 at TROY16% → 3%Before kickoff −34 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −19, Timeouts −1
• TLSAL 17-23 vs TLSA22% → 6%Before kickoff −28 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −35, Clock −2
• NICHW 59-0 vs NICH92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +10
• TTUL 14-49 at TTU2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −3
• LIBL 3-35 at LIB20% → 0%Before kickoff −30 · On the field −20: Scoreboard −23, Timeouts −1
• WKUL 3-16 vs WKU44% → 1%Before kickoff −6 · On the field −43: Scoreboard −47, Clock −3

Points of win probability, from Sam Houston's side.

Closest call

SHSU 21-17 ORST (2025) - Sam Houston dropped to a 4.9% win probability before pulling it out.