Sacramento State
- SRS
- −14.8 (#137)
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Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2025
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Sacramento State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Sacramento State.
Players
YardLine's player model credits every play's value to the players involved, so each one's season can be measured in wins above a typical backup. How it works →
Players, 2025
Quarterback is the most valuable starting slot by a wide margin: the gap between a top-decile and a median FBS quarterback is about twice the gap at any other position.
- Cardell WilliamsQB22 plays · +0.128 pts/play0.05WAR0.01 to 0.10
- Jaden RashadaQB5 plays · +0.278 pts/play0.03WAR0.02 to 0.03
- Savion RedRB4 plays · +0.111 pts/play0.01WAR0.01 to 0.01
By position group
Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.
Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Sacramento State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. How this works
Transfer portal, 2025
39 players transferred in and 17 out. WAR is each one's 2024 season, before the move. Every team's portal
In 2025, the arrivals have added 0.09 WAR at Sacramento State and the departures 0.68 wherever they went.
- Savion RedRB · 3★from Nevada0.280.01
- James JonesRB · 3★from UL Monroe0.11-
- Rodney Hammond Jr.RB · 3★from Pittsburgh0.02-
- Cardell WilliamsQB · 3★from Tulsa0.010.05
- Jaden RashadaQB · 3★from Georgia-0.03
The other 34
- Sam Adams IIRB · 4★from Washington--
- Agiye HallWR · 3★from UCF--
- Bear TenneyTE · 3★from Utah--
- Brennon ScottLB · 3★from UNLV--
- Brodie TagaloaDL · 3★from Nebraska--
- Chase BrackneyDL · 3★from Iowa--
- Damian Henderson IIRB · 3★from Colorado State--
- Damien McDanielWR · 3★from UNLV--
- Deven WrightEDGE · 3★from Texas State--
- Dylan GoodenEDGE · 3★from Maryland--
- Ernest CampbellWR · 3★from Texas A&M--
- Jace WilsonWR · 3★from UTSA--
- Jékob JonesLB · 3★from Cal Poly--
- Jordan AndersonWR · 3★from Oregon State--
- Jordan WilliamsTE · 3★from Colorado State--
- Kristopher RossEDGE · 3★from Nevada--
- Logan TannerTE · 3★from San Diego State--
- Malik TullisDL · 3★from Eastern Michigan--
- Melvin Swindle IIDL · 3★from Eastern Michigan--
- Miles BaileyDL · 3★from Murray State--
- Oscar MooreS · 3★from UTEP--
- Ricky Lee IIIS · 3★from UAB--
- Syncere MasseyDL · 3★from Texas Southern--
- Timothy ConerlyWR · 3★from UNLV--
- Warren Smith Jr.CB · 3★from Washington State--
- Grant MeadorsK · 2★from Oregon--
- Connor McDowellLSfrom Angelo State--
- Dean AbdullahIOLfrom San Diego State--
- Dylan HampstenEDGEfrom San José State--
- Jamar CurtisRBfrom Lafayette--
- Jordan HermanOTfrom Charlotte--
- Joseph Firebaugh Jr.Kfrom UCLA--
- Sammy NorrisIOLfrom UNLV--
- Taison Fa’asuamanuLBfrom West Liberty--
- Carson ConklinQB · 3★to Fresno State0.100.29
- Danny ScuderoWR · 3★to San José State-0.21
- Devin GandyWR · 3★to Louisiana Tech-0.05
- Elijah Tau-TolliverRB · 3★to Michigan State-0.14
The other 13
- Coleman KuntzTE · 3★to South Dakota State--
- Jayden DavisS · 3★to Western Michigan--
- Joey WrightOT · 3★to undecided--
- Nakian JacksonLB · 3★to Nevada--
- Nathan MejiaIOL · 3★to Stanford--
- Phoenix RoseCB · 3★to College of San Mateo--
- Zelmar VedderCB · 3★to Houston--
- Jayden WeberWR · 2★to undecided--
- Tyler HenryDL · 2★to North Dakota--
- AJ CamposLSto San José State--
- Davion RossSto Idaho State--
- Ezra MoleniRBto undecided--
- Murvin Kenion IIISto Nevada--
Only quarterbacks, skill players and specialists have a WAR of their own, so they make up these totals; linemen and defenders count in the moves but add none. 2024 is the player's season at his old school, 2025 his season after the move. A dash means no FBS snaps that season. Rosters tie CFBD's portal entries to players, which works for about 19 in 20 skill-position moves.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Sacramento State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.02 of the 0.03 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at NEVQ4 8:53 4th & 2 at SAC 40, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
- at NEVQ1 3:23 4th & 7 at SAC 4, up 7Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.6 pts
- at NEVQ1 6:39 4th & 1 at SAC 17, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
Every call this season (8)
- Q1 11:454th & 2 at SAC 33, tied · Went for itAgreed
- Q1 6:394th & 1 at SAC 17, up 7 · PuntedClose call
- Q1 3:234th & 7 at SAC 4, up 7 · Went for itClose call
- Q2 13:044th & 6 at NEV 18, up 7 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q3 8:364th & 7 at NEV 45, up 4 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 1:064th & 26 at SAC 19, up 4 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 8:534th & 2 at SAC 40, up 4 · Punted−2.1 pts
- Q4 0:084th & 18 at NEV 24, down 3 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2025
Expected wins adds up Sacramento State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2025
Every game starts at Sacramento State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.26
- Possession & field position+0.01
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.07
Game by game
Points of win probability, from Sacramento State's side.
Closest call
SAC 30-23 STAN (2023) - Sacramento State dropped to a 19.3% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2025
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Sacramento State's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2025
The largest single-play change in Sacramento State's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Sacramento State's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Sacramento State's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Sacramento State's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Sacramento State's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.