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SAC

Sacramento State 17 at Nevada 20

NEV
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadSAC aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreSAC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:08 · Grant Meadors 42 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 170Pregame prior+0.1Home team on offense+16.9Garbage-time factor+5.0Score differential−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 7:17: Joe McFadden 37 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +2.9 pts (now 62%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:02: Chubba Purdy run for 3 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK) — NEV win probability +10.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:53: Cardell Williams pass complete to Ernest Campbell for 75 yds for a TD (Grant Meadors KICK) — SAC win probability +16.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: SAC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Joe McFadden 40 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +6.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:17: Cardell Williams pass intercepted Jonathan Maldonado return for 36 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK) — NEV win probability +56.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: SAC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 8SAC made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:45SAC 4th & 2 at SAC 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:45NEV 4th & 2 at SAC 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    70.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:39SAC 4th & 1 at SAC 17, up 7
    Close callPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:05NEV 4th & 17 at SAC 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:23SAC 4th & 7 at SAC 4, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.2%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:04SAC 4th & 6 at NEV 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:17NEV 4th & 6 at SAC 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−4.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:55NEV 4th & 1 at SAC 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    54.1%−5.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:36SAC 4th & 7 at NEV 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    44.7%−2.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:15NEV 4th & 8 at SAC 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    48.6%−2.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:06SAC 4th & 26 at SAC 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−7.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:16NEV 4th & 6 at SAC 21, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.2%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    46.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−12.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:16NEV 4th & 6 at SAC 21, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.2%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    46.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−12.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:53SAC 4th & 2 at SAC 40, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%−2.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:32NEV 4th & 2 at SAC 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    30.6%−1.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    16.3%−15.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:08SAC 4th & 18 at NEV 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−19.9
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−23.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SAC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:55SAC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:02NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:53SAC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:17NEV Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SACDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5725% → 27%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
75.2%
Jamar Curtis run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAC 22Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
75.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the SAC 24Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+9
74.8%
Jaden Rashada pass complete to Tim Conerly for 9 yds to the SAC 33Similar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+4
74.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the SAC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
74.2%
Cardell Williams run for 2 yds to the SAC 39Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+30
74.1%
Jaden Rashada pass complete to Ajon Bryant for 30 yds to the NEV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
72.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. 5 Yd Run (Grant Meadors Kick)Similar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+28
72.8%
Savion Red pass complete to Ajon Bryant for 28 yds to the NEV 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
72.8%
Sam Adams II run for a loss of 2 yards to the NEV 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2INT
12 plays · 51 yds · 2:4273% → 73%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
73.3%
(10:49) PENALTY NEV False Start 5 yards from NEV26 to NEV21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+4
73.1%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 4 yds to the NEV 25Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+19
73.0%
Chubba Purdy run for 19 yds to the NEV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
73.2%
Chubba Purdy run for 8 yds to the SAC 48Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
73.2%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jordan BrownSimilar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
73.1%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jace HenrySimilar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+5
72.9%
Chubba Purdy run for 5 yds to the SAC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
72.9%
Chubba Purdy run for 13 yds to the SAC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
72.9%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Caleb Ramseur for 10 yds to the SAC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
72.8%
Caleb Ramseur run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAC 23Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 13
OPP 23
0
72.5%
Chubba Purdy pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1828% → 29%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
71.7%
Jamar Curtis run for 7 yds to the SAC 15Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+2
71.1%
Jamar Curtis run for 2 yds to the SAC 17Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 1
OWN 17
0
70.9%
Savion Red run for no gain to the SAC 17Similar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+16
71.0%
Cal McGough punt for 37 yds , Marcus Bellon returns for 16 yds to the SAC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2972% → 70%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 11
OPP 38
-3
71.7%
Herschel Turner run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAC 41Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 14
OPP 41
-3
70.8%
Chubba Purdy run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAC 44Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 17
OPP 44
0
70.3%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jordan BrownSimilar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 17
OPP 44
0
69.8%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 5FG
20 plays · 81 yds · 6:5630% → 37%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
70.0%
Jaden Rashada pass incomplete to Tim ConerlySimilar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+2
70.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the SAC 3Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 8
OWN 3
-1
69.9%
(04:22) PENALTY SAC False Start (Anderson,Jordan) 1 yard from SAC03 to SAC02. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+2
69.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the SAC 4Similar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 7
OWN 4
+13
69.6%
Cal McGough run for 13 yds to the SAC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
68.4%
PENALTY SAC Delay Of Game (Williams,Cardell) 5 yards from SAC17 to SAC12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 15
OWN 12
0
68.3%
Jaden Rashada pass incomplete to Jordan AndersonSimilar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+20
68.2%
Jamar Curtis run for 20 yds to the SAC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
67.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the SAC 34Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
66.9%
Jaden Rashada pass incomplete to Tim ConerlySimilar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 8
OWN 34
-5
67.2%
Sacramento State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-5 Yards) to the SAC 39Similar
Q1 0:58
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+5
66.8%
(01:07) McGough,Cal punt 43 yards to the NEV18 PENALTY NEV Running Into The Kicker (Va'a,Logologo) 5 yards from SAC39 to SAC44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
65.9%
Nevada Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (EJ Smith) to the NEV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
65.2%
Savion Red run for 8 yds to the NEV 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+4
64.8%
Cardell Williams run for 4 yds to the NEV 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
64.8%
(15:00) PENALTY SAC False Start (Anderson,Jordan) 5 yards from NEV22 to NEV27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+2
64.8%
Jamar Curtis run for 2 yds to the NEV 25Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+5
64.3%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Jamar Curtis for 5 yds to the NEV 20Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+2
64.1%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 2 yds to the NEV 18Similar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+35
62.8%
Grant Meadors 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 5:4163% → 62%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
62.6%
Caleb Ramseur run for 7 yds to the NEV 32Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
62.6%
Caleb Ramseur run for 7 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
61.7%
(11:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Purdy,Chubba pass incomplete deep left to Thomas,Dakota thrown to SAC38 PENALTY SAC Pass Interference (Smith Jr.,Warren) 15 yards from NEV39 to SAC46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
62.6%
Chubba Purdy run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAC 48Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+16
61.9%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 16 yds to the SAC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
63.0%
Herschel Turner run for 8 yds to the SAC 24Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+5
62.2%
Marcus Bellon run for 5 yds to the SAC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
62.2%
Caleb Ramseur run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAC 21Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+6
61.5%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jordan Brown for 6 yds to the SAC 15Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 6
OPP 15
-5
60.6%
(08:13) PENALTY NEV False Start (Grabowski,Josh) 5 yards from SAC15 to SAC20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 11
OPP 20
+5
58.9%
Chubba Purdy run for 5 yds to the SAC 15Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+37
61.7%
Joe McFadden 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:1941% → 44%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.4%
Damian Henderson II run for 4 yds to the SAC 29Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
58.6%
Damian Henderson II run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAC 27Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
59.3%
Cardell Williams run for 13 yds to the SAC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
56.5%
Cardell Williams run for 8 yds to the SAC 48Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+4
55.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the NEV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
55.1%
Jamar Curtis run for 3 yds to the NEV 45Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
54.6%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Ajon BryantSimilar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
54.9%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Ajon BryantSimilar
Q2 3:53
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
56.1%
Sacramento State Penalty, Illegal Shift (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:5161% → 73%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+30
60.9%
Herschel Turner run for 30 yds to the SAC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
62.2%
Herschel Turner run for 2 yds to the SAC 13Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+7
62.2%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 7 yds to the SAC 6Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+3
60.9%
Caleb Ramseur run for 3 yds to the SAC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
62.2%
Chubba Purdy run for no gain to the SAC 3Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.6%
Chubba Purdy run for 3 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 9TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
52.6%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Ernest Campbell for 75 yds for a TD (Grant Meadors KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 0:5353% → 64%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
53.3%
Chubba Purdy run for 7 yds to the NEV 32Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+21
55.0%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jordan Brown for 21 yds to the SAC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
56.9%
Chubba Purdy run for 12 yds to the SAC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
58.5%
PENALTY NEV False Start (Foster,Jack) 5 yards from SAC35 to SAC40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+15
55.1%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jordan Brown for 15 yds to the SAC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
57.4%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 2 yds to the SAC 23Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+40
63.5%
Joe McFadden 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11INT
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:0960% → 60%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
60.3%
Caleb Ramseur run for 20 yds to the NEV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
62.7%
Caleb Ramseur run for 1 yd to the NEV 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+2
62.6%
Chubba Purdy run for 2 yds to the NEV 48Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+6
60.2%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Caleb Ramseur for 6 yds to the SAC 46Similar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
60.1%
Herschel Turner run for 2 yds to the SAC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
62.3%
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the SAC 43Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
62.1%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Marcus BellonSimilar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 9
OPP 43
-27
59.9%
Chubba Purdy pass intercepted Koa Akui return for 27 yds to the NEV 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5248% → 47%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
51.7%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Tim Conerly for no gain to the NEV 48Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
51.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the NEV 45Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+5
51.6%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Tim Conerly for 5 yds to the NEV 40Similar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 2
OPP 40
-5
53.0%
(08:56) PENALTY SAC False Start (Herman,Jordan) 5 yards from NEV40 to NEV45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
53.2%
Cal McGough punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 55 yds · 4:1454% → 51%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
54.3%
Caleb Ramseur run for 1 yd to the NEV 2Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+13
53.6%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jordan Brown for 13 yds to the NEV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+26
53.4%
Caleb Ramseur run for 26 yds to the NEV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
56.8%
Herschel Turner run for 13 yds to the SAC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
58.0%
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the SAC 45Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+1
57.6%
Caleb Ramseur run for 1 yd to the SAC 44Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 8
OPP 44
-15
56.5%
(05:25) Shotgun Purdy,Chubba pass complete short middle to Brown,Marshaun caught at SAC31, for 0 yards to the SAC44 PENALTY NEV Pass Interference (Carpenter,Jett) 15 yards from SAC44 to NEV41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 23
OWN 41
+15
50.4%
Chubba Purdy run for 15 yds to the SAC 44Similar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
50.7%
Chubba Purdy punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 2:5753% → 53%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
46.6%
Ajon Bryant run for 6 yds to the SAC 26Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+9
44.9%
Damian Henderson II run for 9 yds to the SAC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
43.7%
Cardell Williams sacked by Nahji Logan for a loss of 4 yards to the SAC 31Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 14
OWN 31
-8
44.7%
Cardell Williams sacked by Dylan Labarbera for a loss of 8 yards to the SAC 23Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 22
OWN 23
-10
46.5%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Williams,Cardell pass complete deep middle to Anderson,Jordan caught at SAC48, for 33 yards to the NEV44 (Odums,AJ) PENALTY SAC Holding (Riley,Kenndel) 10 yards from SAC23 to SAC13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 32
OWN 13
+6
46.5%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 6 yds to the SAC 19Similar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 26
OWN 19
0
47.4%
Cal McGough punt for 57 yds , Marcus Bellon returns for no gain to the NEV 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 57 yds · 3:4248% → 48%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
47.7%
Chubba Purdy run for 7 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+2
49.4%
Chubba Purdy run for 2 yds to the NEV 31Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+1
48.0%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Caleb Ramseur for 1 yd to the NEV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+43
47.1%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 43 yds to the SAC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
54.0%
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the SAC 24Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+3
53.7%
Chubba Purdy run for 3 yds to the SAC 21Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
50.8%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jett CarpenterSimilar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 6
OPP 21
0
47.5%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Marcus BellonSimilar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 6
OPP 21
0
47.5%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Marcus BellonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:1260% → 66%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
39.8%
Jamar Curtis run for 5 yds to the SAC 26Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+6
37.4%
Cardell Williams run for 6 yds to the SAC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
36.8%
Savion Red run for 2 yds to the SAC 34Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+5
34.8%
Savion Red run for 5 yds to the SAC 39Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 3
OWN 39
-10
33.2%
Sacramento State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SAC 30Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+10
37.4%
Cardell Williams run for 10 yds to the SAC 40Similar
Q4 8:53
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
34.5%
Cal McGough punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the NEV 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17DOWNS
13 plays · 53 yds · 6:1042% → 33%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
42.0%
Chubba Purdy run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 20Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
41.4%
Chubba Purdy run for no gain to the NEV 20Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+12
38.9%
Chubba Purdy run for 12 yds to the NEV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
41.4%
Caleb Ramseur run for 1 yd to the NEV 33Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+8
39.4%
Chubba Purdy run for 8 yds to the NEV 41Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+8
41.9%
Caleb Ramseur run for 8 yds to the NEV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
43.4%
Caleb Ramseur run for no gain to the NEV 49Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+17
39.2%
Herschel Turner run for 17 yds to the SAC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
43.7%
Herschel Turner run for 4 yds to the SAC 30Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+4
43.4%
Herschel Turner run for 4 yds to the SAC 26Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 2
OPP 26
0
38.4%
Chubba Purdy run for no gain to the SAC 26Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 2
OPP 26
0
32.8%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Marcus BellonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 18INT TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0984% → 28%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
15.9%
Jamar Curtis run for 3 yds to the SAC 29Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-36
72.5%
Cardell Williams pass intercepted Jonathan Maldonado return for 36 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 19MISSED FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 2:0026% → 12%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
74.3%
Cardell Williams run for 7 yds to the SAC 32Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
70.9%
Damian Henderson II run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAC 30Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
74.2%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Ernest Campbell for 10 yds to the SAC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+26
71.9%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Jordan Williams for 26 yds to the NEV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
64.5%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Jordan Williams for 18 yds to the NEV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
67.7%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Ernest Campbell for 4 yds to the NEV 12Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+3
68.5%
Damian Henderson II run for 3 yds to the NEV 9Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 3
OPP 9
-10
69.2%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Williams,Cardell rush left for 9 yards gain to the NEV00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:24 PENALTY SAC Holding 10 yards from NEV09 to NEV19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 13
OPP 19
-10
74.9%
(00:17) TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:17 PENALTY SAC Holding (Herman,Jordan) 10 yards from NEV19 to NEV29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 23
OPP 29
+5
77.0%
Damian Henderson II run for 5 yds to the NEV 24Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 18
OPP 24
+42
87.6%
Grant Meadors 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · -13 yds · 0:0895% → 95%
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-12
94.7%
PENALTY NEV UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Odums,AJ) 12 yards from NEV24 to NEV12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 22
OWN 12
-1
94.6%
(00:03) Kneel down by Nevada at NEV11 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:17
Cardell Williams pass intercepted Jonathan Maldonado return for 36 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
+56.9
TD · Q2 0:53
Cardell Williams pass complete to Ernest Campbell for 75 yds for a TD (Grant Meadors KICK)
-16.6
TD · Q2 1:02
Chubba Purdy run for 3 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
+10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com