Sacramento State
Next game
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2018
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Sacramento State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Sacramento State.
Players
YardLine's player model credits every play's value to the players involved, so each one's season can be measured in wins above a typical backup. How it works →
Players, 2018
Quarterback is the most valuable starting slot by a wide margin: the gap between a top-decile and a median FBS quarterback is about twice the gap at any other position.
- Kevin ThomsonQB24 plays · +0.137 pts/play0.06WAR0.03 to 0.10
By position group
Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.
Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Sacramento State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. How this works
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2018
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Sacramento State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.05 of the 0.05 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at SDSUQ4 13:44 4th & 4 at SDSU 42, up 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.7 pts
- at SDSUQ3 4:10 4th & 1 at SAC 22, up 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
- at SDSUQ4 2:08 4th & 9 at SAC 26, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
Every call this season (8)
- Q1 10:214th & 8 at SDSU 31, tied · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q1 5:424th & 8 at SAC 27, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 1:344th & 3 at SAC 11, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 15:004th & 9 at SAC 31, down 6 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 4:104th & 1 at SAC 22, up 1 · Punted−2.1 pts
- Q4 13:444th & 4 at SDSU 42, up 1 · Punted−2.7 pts
- Q4 4:054th & 3 at SAC 32, down 7 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 2:084th & 9 at SAC 26, down 14 · PuntedClose call
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2018
Expected wins adds up Sacramento State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2018
Every game starts at Sacramento State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.10
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.07
Game by game
Points of win probability, from Sacramento State's side.
Closest call
SAC 30-23 STAN (2023) - Sacramento State dropped to a 19.3% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2018
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Sacramento State's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2018
The largest single-play change in Sacramento State's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Sacramento State's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Sacramento State's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Sacramento State's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Sacramento State's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.