Sacramento State
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Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2017
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Sacramento State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Sacramento State.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2017
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Sacramento State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.02 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at IDHOQ2 10:52 4th & 1 at SAC 36, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
- at IDHOQ3 14:53 4th & 1 at SAC 24, down 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
- at IDHOQ2 0:33 4th & 10 at IDHO 40, down 11Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.4 pts
- at IDHOQ2 14:16 4th & 5 at IDHO 33, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
Every call this season (14)
- Q1 13:104th & 6 at SAC 25, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 10:514th & 5 at SAC 25, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 5:194th & 8 at SAC 22, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 14:164th & 5 at IDHO 33, tied · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q2 10:524th & 1 at SAC 36, up 3 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 6:134th & 4 at SAC 24, down 4 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 0:334th & 10 at IDHO 40, down 11 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 14:534th & 1 at SAC 24, down 8 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 5:014th & 6 at IDHO 18, down 15 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q3 4:554th & 1 at IDHO 26, down 15 · Went for itAgreed
- Q4 15:004th & 5 at SAC 17, down 15 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 11:094th & 12 at SAC 2, down 15 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 6:024th & 15 at SAC 43, down 22 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 1:494th & 7 at SAC 28, down 22 · PuntedAgreed
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2017
Expected wins adds up Sacramento State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2017
Every game starts at Sacramento State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.10
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.04
Game by game
Points of win probability, from Sacramento State's side.
Closest call
SAC 30-23 STAN (2023) - Sacramento State dropped to a 19.3% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2017
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Sacramento State's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2017
The largest single-play change in Sacramento State's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Sacramento State's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Sacramento State's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Sacramento State's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Sacramento State's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.