Sacramento State
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Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2021
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Sacramento State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Sacramento State.
Players
YardLine's player model credits every play's value to the players involved, so each one's season can be measured in wins above a typical backup. How it works →
Players, 2021
Quarterback is the most valuable starting slot by a wide margin: the gap between a top-decile and a median FBS quarterback is about twice the gap at any other position.
- Jake DunniwayQB43 plays · +0.418 pts/play0.34WAR0.25 to 0.44
- Asher O'HaraQB22 plays · +0.255 pts/play0.10WAR0.06 to 0.15
- BJ PerkinsonRB5 plays · +0.125 pts/play0.01WAR0.01 to 0.02
- Elijah DotsonRB5 plays · +0.122 pts/play0.01WAR0.01 to 0.02
- Marshel MartinTE13 plays · −0.002 pts/play0.00WAR−0.02 to 0.02
By position group
Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.
Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Sacramento State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. How this works
Transfer portal, 2021
2 players transferred in and 1 out. WAR is each one's 2020 season, before the move. Every team's portal
In 2021, the arrivals have added 0.10 WAR at Sacramento State and the departures 0.00 wherever they went.
- Asher O'HaraQB · 3★from Middle Tennessee1.520.10
The other 1
- Kaiden BennettDUAL · 3★from Nevada--
No quarterbacks, skill players or specialists with FBS snaps.
All 1
- Daron BlandCBto Fresno State--
Only quarterbacks, skill players and specialists have a WAR of their own, so they make up these totals; linemen and defenders count in the moves but add none. 2020 is the player's season at his old school, 2021 his season after the move. A dash means no FBS snaps that season. Rosters tie CFBD's portal entries to players, which works for about 19 in 20 skill-position moves.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Sacramento State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.01 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at CALQ2 11:51 4th & 2 at SAC 48, down 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
- at CALQ2 5:12 4th & 3 at SAC 42, down 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
Every call this season (8)
- Q1 14:024th & 7 at SAC 28, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 0:244th & 5 at SAC 42, down 8 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 11:514th & 2 at SAC 48, down 8 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 8:044th & 10 at CAL 19, down 8 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 5:124th & 3 at SAC 42, down 5 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 1:494th & 3 at SAC 47, down 5 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 0:004th & 7 at CAL 10, down 5 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q4 9:324th & 11 at CAL 25, down 2 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2021
Expected wins adds up Sacramento State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2021
Every game starts at Sacramento State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.10
- Timeouts−0.01
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.10
Game by game
Points of win probability, from Sacramento State's side.
Closest call
SAC 30-23 STAN (2023) - Sacramento State dropped to a 19.3% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2021
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Sacramento State's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2021
The largest single-play change in Sacramento State's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Sacramento State's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Sacramento State's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Sacramento State's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Sacramento State's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.