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SAC

Sacramento State 30 at California 42

CAL
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadSAC aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreSAC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-2.5CAL 85.5%Kyle Sentkowski 20 yd FG MISSEDAWAY 12 - HOME 14 · Q2 0:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Kyle Sentkowski 20 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Pregame prior+29.4Home team on offense+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Garbage-time factor+0.2Blowout margin+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Kyle Sentkowski 20 yd FG MISSED — SAC win probability +2.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 14:47: Nikko Remigio 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Dario Longhetto Kick) — SAC win probability +1.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 7:33: Marshel Martin 34 Yd pass from Jake Dunniway (Kyle Sentkowski Kick) — CAL win probability +1.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 9:32: Kyle Sentkowski 43 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +1.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 1:28: Jake Dunniway pass complete to Pierre Williams for 9 yds for a TD, (Kyle Sentkowski KICK) — CAL win probability +1.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SAC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 14:02SAC 4th & 7 at SAC 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:24SAC 4th & 5 at SAC 42, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:39CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 19, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:51SAC 4th & 2 at SAC 48, down 8
    Close callPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:04SAC 4th & 10 at CAL 19, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:46CAL 4th & 11 at CAL 19, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:12SAC 4th & 3 at SAC 42, down 5
    Close callPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:49SAC 4th & 3 at SAC 47, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.6%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00SAC 4th & 7 at CAL 10, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−4.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:27CAL 4th & 8 at SAC 39, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    77.4%−0.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    77.6%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:32SAC 4th & 11 at CAL 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−4.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−12.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:51CAL 4th & 10 at SAC 35, up 2
    Close callWent for it · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.7%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    74.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−3.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SAC made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 9:54CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:35SAC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    8.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:52CAL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SACDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:495% → 5%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.4%
Lucas Triplett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.4%
Elijah Dotson run for 3 yds to the SacSt 28Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
95.3%
Jake Dunniway pass incomplete to Pierre WilliamsSimilar
Q1 14:02
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
95.3%
Sam Clark punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 4:0895% → 95%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
95.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 7 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+20
95.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 20 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
95.1%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 9 yds to the SacSt 49Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+3
95.1%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 3 yds to the SacSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
95.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 12 yds to the SacSt 34 for a 1ST down SACRAMENTO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Greg Filer Iii) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
94.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 6 yds to the SacSt 28Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 4
OPP 28
-5
94.8%
PENALTY CAL False Start (Coleman,Ben) 5 yards from SSU28 to SSU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+11
94.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 11 yds to the SacSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
94.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 18 yds to the SacSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.9%
Damien Moore run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 3TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:045% → 7%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
94.7%
Asher O'Hara run for 7 yds to the SacSt 42Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
94.6%
Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the SacSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
94.4%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Devin Gandy for 9 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+21
94.3%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Chris Miller for 21 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
94.2%
Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
94.0%
Elijah Dotson run for no gain to the Cal 18Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+11
93.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Dewey Cotton for 11 yds to the Cal 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 7 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:2494% → 94%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+27
93.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 12 yds to the SacSt 43 for a 1ST down SACRAMENTO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Josiah Erickson) to the SacSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
93.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Justin Richard Baker for 13 yds to the SacSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
93.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Justin Richard Baker for 10 yds to the SacSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
93.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 9 yds to the SacSt 10Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+6
93.4%
Damien Moore run for 6 yds to the SacSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.2%
Damien Moore run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:156% → 6%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.8%
Isaiah Gable run for 4 yds to the SacSt 29Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
93.7%
Jake Dunniway pass incomplete to Marshel MartinSimilar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
93.8%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to BJ Perkinson for 8 yds to the SacSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
93.6%
Jake Dunniway pass incomplete to Jordan ChinSimilar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
93.6%
Asher O'Hara run for 8 yds to the SacSt 45Similar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
93.3%
Elijah Dotson run for 3 yds to the SacSt 42Similar
Q1 0:24
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
93.6%
Sam Clark punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2894% → 93%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
93.5%
Damien Moore run for 5 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-10
93.4%
(14:56) Garbers,Chase pass complete to Clark,Trevon for 18 yards to the CAL41 (Mapu,Marte; Sanders,Dominick) PENALTY CAL Holding (Cindric,Matthew) 10 yards from CAL23 to CAL13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+6
93.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 6 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
93.1%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
92.9%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Marcus Fulcher at the SacSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:487% → 7%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
93.0%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Pierre Williams for 6 yds to the SacSt 46Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+2
92.7%
BJ Perkinson run for 2 yds to the SacSt 48Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
92.7%
BJ Perkinson run for no gain to the SacSt 48Similar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
92.8%
Sam Clark punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8INT
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:4793% → 93%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+34
92.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 34 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
93.1%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Christopher BrooksSimilar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
92.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 9 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+6
92.9%
Christopher Brooks run for 6 yds to the SacSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
93.0%
Chase Garbers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 9FG
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:378% → 9%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
92.3%
Marcus Fulcher run for 2 yds to the SacSt 46Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
92.2%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to BJ PerkinsonSimilar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+35
92.5%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Pierre Williams for 35 yds to the Cal 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
91.4%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Parker ClaytonSimilar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
91.6%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Pierre WilliamsSimilar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
92.0%
Jake Dunniway pass incomplete to Marshel MartinSimilar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+37
91.1%
Kyle Sentkowski 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1891% → 90%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
91.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Mason Mangum for no gain to the Cal 20Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
91.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
90.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
90.4%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 46 yds , Marcus Fulcher returns for no gain to the SacSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:349% → 10%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
90.8%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the SacSt 37Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
90.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Elijah Dotson for 5 yds to the SacSt 42Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
89.9%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Parker ClaytonSimilar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
90.5%
Sam Clark punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 0:5690% → 91%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+39
90.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 39 yds to the SacSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
91.1%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 1 yd to the SacSt 45Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+45
90.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 45 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 13FG
16 plays · 65 yds · 3:5110% → 15%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.2%
Jake Dunniway pass incomplete to Marshel MartinSimilar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
90.2%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Parker ClaytonSimilar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
90.5%
(03:41) Dunniway,Jake pass incomplete to Gipson,Jared PENALTY CAL Pass Interference (Anusiem,Chigozie) 15 yards from SSU25 to SSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
89.5%
Jake Dunniway pass incomplete to Marshel MartinSimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
89.7%
(03:35) PENALTY SSU False Start (Garza,Ivan) 5 yards from SSU40 to SSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+12
90.0%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Elijah Dotson for 12 yds to the SacSt 47Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
89.0%
Jake Dunniway run for no gain to the SacSt 47Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+5
89.9%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Pierre Williams for 5 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
88.6%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Pierre Williams for 20 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
87.7%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Pierre Williams for 15 yds to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
87.5%
Marcus Fulcher run for 3 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
87.3%
Jake Dunniway pass incomplete to Devin GandySimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
88.0%
Jake Dunniway pass incomplete to Marshel MartinSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+20
85.5%
Kyle Sentkowski 20 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
86.9%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:1414% → 19%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
85.8%
(14:47) Dunniway,Jake pass incomplete to Miller,Chris broken up by Gamble,Collin QB hurried by Goode,Cameron, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CAL Pass Interference (Gamble,Collin) 10 yards from SSU25 to SSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
85.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the SacSt 38Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
84.4%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Pierre WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+13
84.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Parker Clayton for 13 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
83.4%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Parker Clayton for 17 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
82.5%
Jake Dunniway pass incomplete to Pierre WilliamsSimilar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
82.4%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Elijah Dotson for 5 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+26
82.5%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Jared Gipson for 26 yds to the Cal 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.3%
Elijah Dotson run for 1 yd to the Cal 2Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.1%
Asher O'Hara 2 Yd Run (Kyle Sentkowski Kick)Similar
Q3 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
81.1%
O'Hara,Asher pass attempt Failed PENALTY SSU Holding (Martin,Marshel) 10 yards from CAL03 to CAL13. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0184% → 86%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 6 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
84.7%
Christopher Brooks run for 6 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
84.3%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 17 yds to the SacSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
85.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+19
85.4%
Damien Moore run for 19 yds to the SacSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
85.9%
SACRAMENTO ST Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Jett Stanley) to the SacSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
85.7%
Trevon Clark 12 Yd pass from Chase Garbers (Dario Longhetto Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 17TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 0:5218% → 21%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
82.1%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to BJ Perkinson for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
50
0
79.5%
Jake Dunniway pass incomplete to Pierre WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 10
50
0
79.9%
Jake Dunniway pass incomplete to BJ PerkinsonSimilar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 10
50
+16
80.5%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Pierre Williams for 16 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
78.2%
Jake Dunniway pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
78.2%
Jake Dunniway pass incomplete to BJ PerkinsonSimilar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+34
79.3%
Marshel Martin 34 Yd pass from Jake Dunniway (Kyle Sentkowski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:4882% → 80%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
81.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Collin Moore for 1 yd to the Cal 11Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+9
81.4%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 9 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+4
80.3%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+22
81.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 22 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
82.5%
Chase Garbers run for 13 yds to the SacSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
82.7%
Marcel Dancy run for 2 yds to the SacSt 39Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
82.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Tommy ChristakosSimilar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
81.7%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q3 3:27
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
79.7%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 19INT
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:0723% → 28%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
76.6%
Kaiden Bennett pass complete to Asher O'Hara for 9 yds to the SacSt 48Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
74.4%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
50
0
74.2%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jared GipsonSimilar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 10
50
+24
74.5%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Marshel Martin for 24 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
71.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the Cal 25Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+5
71.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q3 0:47
3RD & 4
OPP 20
-5
71.7%
PENALTY SSU False Start (Richardson,Kooper) 5 yards from CAL20 to CAL25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
72.1%
Jake Dunniway pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:1877% → 81%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+32
77.0%
Damien Moore run for 32 yds to the SacSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
80.6%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the SacSt 45Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+22
79.9%
Chase Garbers run for 22 yds to the SacSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
80.4%
Christopher Brooks run for 7 yds to the SacSt 16Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+16
81.2%
Chase Garbers run for 16 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 21FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:0426% → 28%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the SacSt 27Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
73.7%
(12:15) Dunniway,Jake pass incomplete to Williams,Pierre broken up by Hearns III,Lu-Magia PENALTY CAL Pass Interference (Hearns III,Lu-Magia) 15 yards from SSU27 to SSU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
70.7%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Marshel Martin for 19 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
69.0%
Jake Dunniway pass incomplete to Marshel MartinSimilar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
69.0%
(11:40) Dunniway,Jake pass incomplete to Miller,Chris PENALTY CAL Pass Interference (Hicks,Elijah) 15 yards from CAL39 to CAL24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
66.6%
Jake Dunniway pass incomplete to Jared GipsonSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
67.1%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Marshel Martin for 4 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
67.5%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Marshel Martin for no gain to the Cal 20Similar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 6
OPP 20
-5
70.7%
(10:00) PENALTY SSU False Start (Richardson,Kooper) 5 yards from CAL20 to CAL25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:32
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+43
72.0%
Kyle Sentkowski 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22DOWNS
14 plays · 40 yds · 5:2575% → 76%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.6%
Marcel Dancy run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
74.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 8 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
75.4%
Marcel Dancy run for 1 yd to the Cal 37Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
74.4%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+17
72.9%
Chase Garbers run for 17 yds to the SacSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
77.1%
Damien Moore run for 1 yd to the SacSt 47Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
79.4%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Monroe YoungSimilar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+12
77.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 12 yds to the SacSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
80.7%
Marcel Dancy run for no gain to the SacSt 35Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
81.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Justin Richard Baker for no gain to the SacSt 35Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
79.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
76.1%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 23TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 2:1231% → 39%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
68.6%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Marshel Martin for 16 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
63.0%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Elijah Dotson for 5 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
61.8%
Jake Dunniway pass incomplete to Jordan ChinSimilar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+20
63.5%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Chris Miller for 20 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
58.6%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Pierre Williams for 15 yds to the Cal 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
57.1%
Jake Dunniway pass incomplete to Marshel MartinSimilar
Q4 1:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
56.9%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Elijah Dotson for 5 yds to the Cal 4Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
59.5%
PENALTY SSU False Start (McBride,Charlie) 5 yards from CAL04 to CAL09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
60.7%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Pierre Williams for 9 yds for a TD, (Kyle Sentkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2089% → 96%
Q4 1:20
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+5
88.6%
Damien Moore run for 5 yds to the SacSt 37Similar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
89.9%
Damien Moore run for 2 yds to the SacSt 42Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+9
89.3%
Damien Moore run for 9 yds to the SacSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
96.1%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the SacSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+3.9
FG · Q2 0:00
Kyle Sentkowski 20 yd FG MISSED
-2.5
TD · Q3 14:47
Nikko Remigio 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Dario Longhetto Kick)
-1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com