North Dakota State

Profile vs. FBS, 2026

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1446th
  Defense−0.1799th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.3%41st
  Defense37.5%72nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3069th
  Defense+0.9799th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0737th
  Defense−0.1693rd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2760th
  Defense−0.1899th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.0%34th
  Defense48.5%34th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.1%52nd
  Defense16.3%99th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1052nd
  Defense2.8257th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.1%42nd
  Defense20.2%66th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.1%58th
  Defense17.1%67th

Percentiles among the 138 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2026

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what North Dakota State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   JXST
2. W
   FOR
3. W
   AF
4. W
   SAC
5. W
   WYO
6. L
   UNLV

Bars above the line: better than expected for North Dakota State.

Players, 2026

1. Nathan HayesQB115 plays · +0.176 pts/play · 38th of 192 QBs
   0.38WAR0.19 to 0.53
2. Myles MitchellRB43 plays · +0.105 pts/play · 99th of 320 RBs
   0.08WAR0.06 to 0.11
3. Jackson WilliamsWR26 plays · +0.167 pts/play · 61st of 364 WRs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.11
4. DJ ScottRB47 plays · +0.086 pts/play · 131st of 320 RBs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.11
5. Reis KesselTE14 plays · +0.126 pts/play · 39th of 164 TEs
   0.03WAR0.01 to 0.05

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares North Dakota State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2026

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  516516131st of 138Roster talent: 516, 131st of 138 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  7474132nd of 138Recruiting: 74, 132nd of 138 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  No data
• SP+ rating so far

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +8.6+8.643rd of 138SP+ rating so far: +8.6, 43rd of 138 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 138 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion so far

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than North Dakota State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.01 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs WYOQ2 5:44 4th & 4 at NDSU 49, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
2. vs JXSTQ4 13:31 4th & 3 at JXST 24, up 20Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
3. vs JXSTQ2 14:05 4th & 12 at JXST 36, tiedWent for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.2 pts
4. at AFQ4 1:58 4th & 9 at AF 38, up 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
5. at SACQ1 3:24 4th & 6 at SAC 40, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
6. at SACQ4 4:03 4th & 5 at SAC 45, up 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
7. vs FORQ3 1:54 4th & 2 at NDSU 35, up 38Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
8. vs WYOQ4 1:53 4th & 9 at WYO 43, up 28Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2026

45th of 138 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up North Dakota State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   JXST
2. W

   FOR
3. W

   AF
4. W

   SAC
5. W

   WYO
6. L

   UNLV

What moved it, 2026

Every game starts at North Dakota State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.74
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock+0.01
• Timeouts−0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.30

Game by game

• JXSTW 33-7 vs JXST67% → 100%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +33, Timeouts +1
• FORW 38-0 vs FOR99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• AFW 38-32 at AF55% → 97%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +49, Clock +2
• SACW 31-10 at SAC94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +11
• WYOW 28-0 vs WYO86% → 100%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +16
• UNLVL 7-13 at UNLV55% → 4%Before kickoff +5 · On the field −51: Scoreboard −38, Timeouts −3

Points of win probability, from North Dakota State's side.

Closest call

NDSU 23-21 IOWA (2016) - North Dakota State dropped to a 10.0% win probability before pulling it out.