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JXST

Jacksonville State 7 at North Dakota State 33

NDSU
2026 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2026 · Fargodome
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Win probability · NDSU
modelNDSU aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playNDSU scoreJXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:59 · (05:10) #0 P.Brown rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JSU26 (#34 J.McCollough), 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 161Home team on offense+33.3Pregame prior+1.4Score differential+22.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+23.3Garbage-time factor+12.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+9.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:16: (04:22) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 8 yards gain to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:16 #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove) — JXST win probability +3.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 10:46: (10:48) #37 D.Klein field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson), clock 10:46 — NDSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:18: (00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep left to #11 J.McCants caught at JSU20, for 44 yards to the JSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:18, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson) — NDSU win probability +8.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:59: (07:02) #37 D.Klein field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson), clock 06:59 — NDSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:41: (06:40) Shotgun Jacksonville St. rush middle for 14 yards loss to the JSU00 fumbled by Jacksonville St. at JSU14 recovered by NDSU #48 B.Schiltz at JSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:41 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson) — NDSU win probability +10.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8JXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 8:10JXST 4th & 9 at JXST 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:51NDSU 4th & 5 at NDSU 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:05NDSU 4th & 12 at JXST 36, tied
    Close callWent for it · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.8%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    66.1%
    42% to make
    Punt
    65.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:46NDSU 4th & 10 at JXST 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:25JXST 4th & 21 at JXST 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−2.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:06NDSU 4th & 13 at NDSU 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−2.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:00JXST 4th & 8 at JXST 48, down 3
    Close callPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:42JXST 4th & 1 at NDSU 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%−1.9
    86% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−8.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:45JXST 4th & 1 at JXST 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.4%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:59NDSU 4th & 7 at JXST 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−4.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:46JXST 4th & 9 at JXST 48, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:31NDSU 4th & 3 at JXST 24, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:27JXST 4th & 21 at NDSU 35, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:59NDSU 4th & 1 at JXST 29, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:17NDSU 4th & 12 at JXST 30, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:11JXST 4th & 19 at JXST 26, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2JXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 15:00NDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:16JXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:41NDSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.3%
#7 D.Scott rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NDSU28 (#28 C.Johnson)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
67.3%
PENALTY NDSU False Start (#40 K.Zenzen) 5 yards from NDSU28 to NDSU23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
67.3%
Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #18 J.Williams caught at NDSU27, for 7 yards to the NDSU30 (#8 J.Brooks)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+17
67.3%
Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short middle to #81 R.Kessel caught at NDSU45, for 17 yards to the NDSU47 (#40 W.O'Steen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
67.3%
Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #18 J.Williams caught at JSU47, for 14 yards to the JSU39 (#1 C.Nix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
67.3%
Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush left for 5 yards gain to the JSU34 (#28 C.Johnson; #59 M.Sanders)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+27
67.3%
#5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 27 yards gain to the JSU07 (#3 T.Fegans), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
67.3%
Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush left for 1 yard gain to the JSU06 (#8 J.Brooks)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
67.3%
Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #81 R.Kessel caught at JSU00, for 6 yards to the JSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:09 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 1:4432% → 31%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
68.2%
(10:00) Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush right for 12 yards gain (7) to the JSU33 (#1 D.Woolen), out of bounds PENALTY JSU Holding (#30 L.Gilbert) 10 yards from JSU28 to JSU18Similar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 13
OWN 18
+2
68.4%
(09:44) Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush left for 2 yards gain to the JSU20 (#11 M.Stenbroten)Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
68.6%
(09:12) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #9 R.Johnson thrown to JSU33 QB hurried by #11 M.StenbrotenSimilar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+7
68.8%
(09:06) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #6 J.Likely caught at JSU25, for 7 yards to the JSU27 (#3 G.Sell; #11 M.Stenbroten)Similar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+5
69.0%
PENALTY JSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from JSU27 to JSU22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
69.1%
(08:15) #87 C.Donaghy punt 45 yards to the NDSU33 fair catch by #18 J.Williams at NDSU33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0569% → 69%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
69.0%
(08:09) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #18 J.Williams caught at NDSU37, for 4 yards to the NDSU37 (#8 J.Brooks)Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
69.3%
(07:37) #7 D.Scott rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NDSU38 (#13 J.Cruz; #44 K.Perry)Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
69.3%
(06:58) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #81 R.Kessel thrown to NDSU40 broken up by #59 M.SandersSimilar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
68.9%
(06:57) #39 A.Bickerton punt 26 yards to the JSU36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 4TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:2731% → 36%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
68.6%
(06:50) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #11 D.Johnson caught at JSU35, for 2 yards to the JSU38 (#29 D.Givance)Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+15
68.5%
PENALTY NDSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#29 D.Givance) 15 yards from JSU38 to NDSU47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
67.9%
(06:30) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #9 R.Johnson caught at NDSU41, for 6 yards to the NDSU41 (#16 M.Moore)Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+17
67.8%
(06:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush right for 17 yards gain to the NDSU24 (#25 R.James), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
67.5%
(05:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush right for 4 yards gain to the NDSU20 (#8 K.Wilson)Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+3
67.5%
(04:51) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NDSU17 (#1 D.Woolen) PENALTY NDSU Personal Foul (#11 M.Stenbroten) 9 yards from NDSU17 to NDSU08, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
63.9%
(04:22) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 8 yards gain to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:16 #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 5FG
19 plays · 49 yds · 8:1666% → 68%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
66.2%
(04:08) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NDSU41 (#99 A.Rumph; #40 W.O'Steen)Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
66.9%
(03:30) #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NDSU43 (#40 W.O'Steen)Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
66.7%
(02:54) #7 D.Scott rush left for 3 yards gain to the NDSU46 (#1 C.Nix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
67.0%
(02:12) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short middle to #81 R.Kessel caught at NDSU50, for 4 yards to the NDSU50 (#5 R.Billings)Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 6
50
+3
67.2%
(01:36) #7 D.Scott rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JSU47 (#15 T.Floyd)Similar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+13
67.0%
(00:54) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes rush right for 13 yards gain to the JSU34, out of bounds at JSU34, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
67.7%
(00:19) #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep right to #15 M.Collins thrown to JSU00Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
67.7%
(00:12) Shotgun #4 N.Punni rush left for 4 yards gain to the JSU30 (#1 C.Nix; #8 J.Brooks)Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-6
67.1%
(14:59) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes sacked for loss of 6 yards to the JSU36 (#15 T.Floyd)Similar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 12
OPP 36
+20
65.4%
(14:20) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep right to #18 J.Williams caught at JSU16, for 20 yards to the JSU16 (#9 J.Carr), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
67.7%
(13:37) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 1 yard gain to the JSU15 (#93 J.Campbell; #44 K.Perry)Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+10
67.7%
(12:59) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush left for 2 yards gain to the JSU13 (#1 C.Nix; #59 M.Sanders) PENALTY NDSU Holding (#40 K.Zenzen) 10 yards from JSU15 to JSU25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 19
OPP 25
+5
67.0%
(12:35) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short middle to #7 D.Scott caught at JSU20, for 5 yards to the JSU20 (#2 M.Joseph)Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 14
OPP 20
+5
66.1%
(11:48) PENALTY NDSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from JSU20 to JSU25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 19
OPP 25
+9
66.1%
(11:23) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 9 yards gain to the JSU16 (#9 J.Carr)Similar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
67.6%
(10:48) #37 D.Klein field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson), clock 10:46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 4:1232% → 30%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
68.0%
(10:45) Shotgun #32 C.Kouemi rush middle for 14 yards gain to the JSU39 (#29 D.Givance), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
66.6%
(10:05) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #83 D.Alpers caught at JSU45, for 6 yards to the JSU45 (#1 D.Woolen)Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
66.1%
(09:27) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 2 yards gain to the JSU47 (#1 D.Woolen)Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+6
66.0%
(08:50) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NDSU47 (#1 D.Woolen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-12
65.9%
(08:10) Shotgun #32 C.Kouemi rush middle for 12 yards loss to the JSU41 fumbled by #32 C.Kouemi at NDSU46 recovered by JSU #32 C.Kouemi at JSU41, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 22
OWN 41
+1
68.1%
(07:15) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 1 yard gain to the JSU42 (#9 K.McCaslin)Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 21
OWN 42
0
68.6%
(06:43) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete deep middle to #3 D.Cannon thrown to NDSU25Similar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 21
OWN 42
0
69.6%
(06:35) #87 C.Donaghy punt 44 yards to the NDSU14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:1868% → 67%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
68.4%
(06:24) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short middle to #18 J.Williams caught at NDSU22, for 12 yards to the NDSU26 (#1 C.Nix) PENALTY NDSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#81 R.Kessel) 5 yards from NDSU14 to NDSU09. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 15
OWN 9
+2
68.4%
(06:06) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NDSU11 (#96 N.Addy)Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 13
OWN 11
0
68.4%
(05:28) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #15 M.Collins thrown to NDSU24Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 13
OWN 11
0
67.7%
(05:17) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short middle to #15 M.Collins thrown to NDSU28 broken up by #8 J.BrooksSimilar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 13
OWN 11
+2
66.9%
(05:15) #39 A.Bickerton punt 45 yards to the JSU44 #1 C.Nix return 2 yards to the JSU46 (#1 D.Woolen)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5031% → 28%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
69.4%
(05:04) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #17 J.Williams caught at JSU42, for 3 yards loss to the JSU43 (#29 D.Givance)Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+8
70.9%
(04:27) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #17 J.Williams caught at JSU38, for 8 yards to the NDSU49 (#1 D.Woolen)Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-3
69.1%
(03:46) Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush left for 3 yards loss to the JSU48 (#9 K.McCaslin)Similar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
71.7%
(03:09) #87 C.Donaghy punt 45 yards to the NDSU07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 9INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4370% → 69%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
70.1%
(02:59) #7 D.Scott rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NDSU11 (#96 N.Addy; #13 J.Cruz)Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 6
OWN 11
0
70.1%
(02:18) #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #18 J.Williams thrown to NDSU14Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 6
OWN 11
0
69.4%
(02:12) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass intercepted by #9 J.Carr at NDSU21, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:2431% → 27%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
69.1%
(02:06) Shotgun #12 C.Creel sacked for loss of 2 yards to the NDSU23 (#9 K.McCaslin)Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+1
69.4%
(01:59) Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush left for 1 yard gain to the NDSU22 (#3 G.Sell)Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+10
73.2%
(01:52) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #30 L.Gilbert caught at NDSU12, for 10 yards to the NDSU12 (#29 D.Givance)Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 1
OPP 12
0
73.3%
(01:45) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 0 yards to the NDSU12 (#12 D.Voltz), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 1:1171% → 82%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
70.7%
(01:41) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #7 D.Scott caught at NDSU08, for 7 yards to the NDSU19 (#2 M.Joseph; #3 T.Fegans)Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+3
70.9%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #81 R.Kessel caught at NDSU22, for 3 yards to the NDSU22 (#2 M.Joseph), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
70.4%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #17 I.St. Romain caught at NDSU27, for 5 yards to the NDSU27 (#9 J.Carr), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+11
70.6%
(01:09) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #15 M.Collins caught at NDSU33, for 11 yards to the NDSU38 (#8 J.Brooks), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
71.6%
(01:04) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #18 J.Williams caught at NDSU48, for 13 yards to the JSU49 (#59 M.Sanders), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
72.6%
(00:47) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #3 J.Patterson thrown to JSU33 PENALTY JSU Holding (#9 J.Carr) 10 yards from JSU49 to JSU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
72.9%
(00:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #44 L.Kokat thrown to JSU48Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
73.1%
(00:41) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes sacked for loss of 5 yards to the JSU44 (#16 Q.Hood)Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+44
82.1%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep left to #11 J.McCants caught at JSU20, for 44 yards to the JSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:18, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
82.7%
(00:17) Kneel down by #12 C.Creel at JSU23 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 13INT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:1723% → 23%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
76.7%
(14:59) Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush right for 8 yards gain to the JSU33 (#29 D.Givance)Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
75.5%
(14:23) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 1 yard gain to the JSU34 (#14 T.Eady)Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
77.9%
(13:39) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 0 yards to the JSU34 (#1 D.Woolen; #25 R.James)Similar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
79.0%
(12:51) Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush middle for 1 yard gain to the JSU35 (#25 R.James; #1 D.Woolen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
78.2%
(12:11) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Likely thrown to JSU46 broken up by #6 J.CrumbySimilar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
78.5%
(12:01) Shotgun #17 J.Williams rush right for 7 yards gain to the JSU42 (#1 D.Woolen; #6 J.Crumby)Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+15
77.6%
PENALTY NDSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#8 K.Wilson) 15 yards from JSU42 to NDSU43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
76.9%
(11:24) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete deep left to #9 R.Johnson thrown to NDSU09Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-4
77.1%
(11:19) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass intercepted by #16 M.Moore at NDSU40 QB hurried by #41 P.Haugo #16 M.Moore return 4 yards to the NDSU44, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Interception". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 14FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:1581% → 86%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
80.8%
PENALTY NDSU False Start (#76 R.Babatz) 5 yards from NDSU44 to NDSU39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+11
80.2%
(11:13) #7 D.Scott rush middle for 11 yards gain to the NDSU50 (#35 A.Thompson)Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 4
50
+14
81.3%
(10:35) #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #18 J.Williams caught at JSU36, for 14 yards to the JSU36 (#3 T.Fegans) PENALTY NDSU Illegal Formation JSU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#3 T.Fegans) 19 yards from NDSU50 to JSU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
81.7%
(10:01) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes rush left for 5 yards gain to the JSU36 (#3 T.Fegans)Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+7
81.8%
(09:36) #4 N.Punni rush middle for 7 yards gain to the JSU29 (#13 J.Cruz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
82.3%
(08:53) #4 N.Punni rush right for 1 yard gain to the JSU28 (#13 J.Cruz)Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+6
82.6%
(08:11) #4 N.Punni rush right for 6 yards gain to the JSU22 (#0 M.Butler)Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 3
OPP 22
-4
81.7%
(07:43) #7 D.Scott rush middle for 4 yards loss to the JSU26 (#35 A.Thompson)Similar
Q3 6:59
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+44
86.2%
(07:02) #37 D.Klein field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson), clock 06:59Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 15FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · -25 yds · 0:1015% → 5%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.1%
(06:57) Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush middle for 2 yards gain to the JSU27 (#93 A.Okes) PENALTY JSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#74 A.Atchison) 13 yards from JSU27 to JSU14Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 21
OWN 14
0
95.3%
(06:40) Shotgun Jacksonville St. rush middle for 14 yards loss to the JSU00 fumbled by Jacksonville St. at JSU14 recovered by NDSU #48 B.Schiltz at JSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:41 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:355% → 4%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
95.2%
(06:30) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 2 yards gain to the JSU12, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+5
95.5%
(05:56) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #9 R.Johnson caught at JSU16, for 5 yards to the JSU17 (#12 D.Voltz)Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+6
95.6%
(05:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 6 yards gain to the JSU23 (#25 R.James), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+24
95.7%
(05:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #11 D.Johnson caught at JSU35, for 24 yards to the JSU47 (#16 M.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
95.4%
(04:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short left thrown to NDSU35Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
95.4%
(04:35) Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush middle for 1 yard gain to the JSU48, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
95.5%
(03:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short left to #11 D.Johnson thrown to NDSU46Similar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
95.7%
(03:55) #87 C.Donaghy punt 51 yards to the NDSU01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 17FG
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:1598% → 99%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
97.9%
PENALTY NDSU False Start (#75 J.Magin). NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
97.9%
(03:46) PENALTY NDSU False Start. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
98.0%
(03:37) #2 N.Hayes rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NDSU02 (#0 M.Butler)Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+4
98.0%
(03:16) #2 N.Hayes rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NDSU06 (#35 A.Thompson). #7 M.Woods injured on the playSimilar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+25
98.3%
(02:56) #4 N.Punni rush middle for 25 yards gain to the NDSU31 (#5 R.Billings), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
98.3%
(02:14) #4 N.Punni rush middle for 14 yards gain to the NDSU45 (#5 R.Billings), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
98.3%
(01:37) #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 13 yards gain to the JSU42 (#53 I.Mitchell), 1ST DOWN. #40 W.O'Steen injured on the playSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
99.0%
(01:08) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush left for 6 yards gain to the JSU36 (#0 M.Butler; #9 J.Carr)Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+3
99.0%
(00:26) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush left for 3 yards gain to the JSU33 (#2 M.Joseph)Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
99.1%
(00:00) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes rush middle for 2 yards gain to the JSU31, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
99.2%
(14:59) Shotgun #4 N.Punni rush right for 2 yards gain to the JSU29 (#16 Q.Hood)Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+5
99.3%
(14:23) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 5 yards gain to the JSU24 (#1 C.Nix; #5 R.Billings)Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 3
OPP 24
0
99.5%
(13:38) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #8 C.Kiel thrown to JSU18Similar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+42
99.4%
(13:33) #37 D.Klein field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson), clock 13:31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 18MISSED FG
13 plays · 40 yds · 3:561% → 1%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
98.7%
(13:30) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 18 yards gain to the JSU43 (#20 W.Steil), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
98.7%
(13:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #3 D.Cannon caught at JSU47, for 4 yards to the JSU47 (#1 D.Woolen)Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+8
98.7%
(12:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush right for 8 yards gain to the NDSU45 fumbled by #6 J.Likely at NDSU45 forced by #28 K.Carter recovered by JSU #6 J.Likely at NDSU45, out of bounds at NDSU45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
98.7%
(12:22) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #11 D.Johnson thrown to NDSU29 PENALTY NDSU Holding (#28 K.Carter) 10 yards from NDSU45 to NDSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
98.6%
(12:13) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #7 K.Lando caught at NDSU38, for 6 yards to the NDSU29 (#41 P.Haugo; #52 K.Williams)Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+5
98.6%
(11:49) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 5 yards gain to the NDSU24, out of bounds at NDSU24, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
98.6%
(11:19) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short left to #7 K.Lando thrown to NDSU26Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-2
98.7%
(11:10) Shotgun #12 C.Creel sacked for loss of 3 yards to the NDSU27 (#94 L.Larson, #9 K.McCaslin)Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 13
OPP 27
+5
98.9%
PENALTY JSU Illegal Snap (#50 L.Mrachkovskiy) 5 yards from NDSU27 to NDSU32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 18
OPP 32
-3
98.9%
(10:20) Shotgun #12 C.Creel sacked for loss of 3 yards to the NDSU35 (#48 B.Schiltz)Similar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 21
OPP 35
+52
99.0%
(09:27) #37 G.Rippa field goal attempt from 52 yards NO GOOD (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove), clock 09:27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 19FG
14 plays · 35 yds · 7:03100% → 100%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
99.8%
(09:25) #7 D.Scott rush middle for 13 yards gain to the NDSU48 (#3 T.Fegans), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
99.8%
(08:41) #7 D.Scott rush middle for 7 yards gain to the JSU45 (#8 J.Brooks)Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-3
99.8%
(07:58) #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 3 yards loss to the JSU48 (#15 T.Floyd)Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+10
99.8%
(07:19) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass intercepted by #8 J.Brooks at JSU24 #8 J.Brooks return 0 yards to the JSU24 (#6 J.Crumby) PENALTY JSU Holding (#6 K.Cook) 10 yards from JSU48 to JSU38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. #15 T.Floyd injured on the playSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
99.9%
(07:00) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush left for 5 yards gain to the JSU33 (#2 M.Joseph)Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
99.8%
(06:16) Shotgun #0 P.Brown rush right for 0 yards to the JSU33 (#53 I.Mitchell; #92 M.Hood)Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+4
99.9%
(05:35) #0 P.Brown pass complete short left to #83 C.Osterman caught at JSU29, for 4 yards to the JSU29, out of bounds at JSU29Similar
Q4 4:59
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+3
99.8%
(05:10) #0 P.Brown rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JSU26 (#34 J.McCollough), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
99.9%
(04:34) #4 N.Punni rush middle for 5 yards gain to the JSU21 (#13 J.Cruz) PENALTY NDSU Holding (#78 N.Stommes) 10 yards from JSU26 to JSU36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+1
99.9%
(04:25) #4 N.Punni rush left for 1 yard gain to the JSU35 (#36 B.Matthews)Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 19
OPP 35
+2
99.9%
(03:47) #5 M.Mitchell rush left for 2 yards gain to the JSU33 (#3 T.Fegans; #36 B.Matthews) PENALTY NDSU Illegal Formation declinedSimilar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 17
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
(03:06) #32 B.Kpeenu rush middle for 5 yards gain to the JSU30 (#9 J.Carr)Similar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+48
99.9%
(02:20) #37 D.Klein field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson), clock 02:17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
100.0%
(02:16) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #6 J.Likely caught at JSU25, for 10 yards to the JSU35 (#42 A.Elliott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
100.0%
(01:59) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short left to #6 J.Likely thrown to JSU34Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
100.0%
(01:55) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 11 yards gain to the JSU46 (#93 A.Okes) PENALTY JSU Holding (#52 S.Fain) 9 yards from JSU35 to JSU26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 19
OWN 26
0
100.0%
(01:31) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short middle to #9 R.Johnson thrown to JSU42Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 19
OWN 26
0
100.0%
(01:28) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete deep right to #9 R.Johnson thrown to JSU46Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 19
OWN 26
0
100.0%
(01:19) #87 C.Donaghy punt 47 yards to the NDSU27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 21Uncategorized
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:21100% → 100%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
99.9%
(01:10) #26 B.Wavrunek rush left for 3 yards gain to the NDSU30 (#96 N.Addy)Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-1
100.0%
(00:27) Kneel down by #10 T.Drake at NDSU29 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:41
(06:40) Shotgun Jacksonville St. rush middle for 14 yards loss to the JSU00 fumbled by Jacksonville St. at JSU14 recovered by NDSU #48 B.Schiltz at JSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:41 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)
+10.3
TD · Q2 0:18
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep left to #11 J.McCants caught at JSU20, for 44 yards to the JSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:18, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)
+8.9
FG · Q3 6:59
(07:02) #37 D.Klein field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson), clock 06:59
+4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com