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NDSU

North Dakota State 38 at Air Force 32

AF
2026 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadNDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreNDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-1.4AF 1.0%(01:58) #37 D.Klein field goal attemptfrom 56 yards GOOD (H: #39A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson),clock 01:58AWAY 38 - HOME 25 · Q4 1:58
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:58 · (01:58) #37 D.Klein field goal attempt from 56 yards GOOD (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson), clock 01:58
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Home team on offense−47.9Score differential−19.6Garbage-time factor−12.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−12.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−17.2Pregame prior−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:48: (01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass intercepted by #6 B.Fletcher at AF05 #6 B.Fletcher return 95 yards to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:48 Timeout North Dakota State, clock 02:00 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt failed ( blocked by #11 M.Stenbroten) (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms) recovered by NDSU North Dakota St. at NDSU15, End Of Play — AF win probability +11.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:29: (00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:29 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson) — NDSU win probability +22.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:02: (12:08) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep left to #84 L.Conklin caught at AF08, for 41 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:02, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson) — NDSU win probability +9.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:59: (11:01) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 2 yards gain to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:59 #9 L.Szarka pass attempt failed — AF win probability +10.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:50: (00:49) Shotgun #5 E.Medders pass complete deep middle to #3 M.Long caught at NDSU00, for 20 yards to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:50, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms) — AF win probability +11.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 7:52AF 4th & 2 at AF 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:55NDSU 4th & 2 at AF 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    54.9%−0.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:52NDSU 4th & 1 at AF 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    56.1%−1.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    52.9%−4.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:16AF 4th & 3 at AF 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:48NDSU 4th & 7 at NDSU 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:20NDSU 4th & 2 at AF 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    58.9%−2.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:46AF 4th & 16 at AF 19, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−2.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:26AF 4th & 6 at midfield, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.1%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:00AF 4th & 10 at NDSU 11, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−1.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    -3.5%−9.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:18NDSU 4th & 6 at NDSU 24, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:31AF 4th & 12 at NDSU 15, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−3.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:46NDSU 4th & 11 at NDSU 39, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:58NDSU 4th & 9 at AF 38, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.6%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:54NDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:08NDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:20NDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:48AF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    36.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:29NDSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:02NDSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:59AF Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    8.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.1%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:50AF Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.8%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDSUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0055% → 56%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
45.2%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NDSU31 (#8 D.Daley; #48 A.Menard)Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
45.3%
(14:28) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NDSU37 (#6 B.Fletcher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
45.4%
(13:50) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep left to #18 J.Williams thrown to AF35Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
45.5%
(13:45) #7 D.Scott rush right for 1 yard gain to the NDSU38 (#9 M.Mustell)Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+15
45.6%
(13:05) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep right to #15 M.Collins thrown to AF40 broken up by #23 C.Paterson QB hurried by #47 J.Kepler PENALTY AF Targeting (#23 C.Paterson) 15 yards from NDSU38 to AF47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
45.4%
(12:59) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #18 J.Williams caught at AF41, for 2 yards to the AF45 (#8 D.Daley)Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+5
45.5%
PENALTY NDSU False Start (#18 J.Williams) 5 yards from AF45 to AF50. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 13
50
+7
45.7%
(12:05) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 7 yards gain to the AF43 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+8
45.7%
(11:23) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #7 D.Scott caught at AF37, for 8 yards to the AF35 (#2 K.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
45.6%
(10:39) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AF31 (#5 R.Jones; #8 D.Daley)Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+31
43.9%
(10:00) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush left for 31 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:54, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5145% → 44%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.7%
(09:46) #44 R.Conti rush right for 0 yards to the AF25 (#1 D.Woolen)Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.5%
(09:11) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF28 (#3 G.Sell; #1 D.Woolen)Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
44.2%
(08:32) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush left for 5 yards gain to the AF33 (#8 K.Wilson)Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
44.2%
(07:58) #94 W.Duncan punt 67 yards to the NDSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 3TD
19 plays · 80 yds · 8:3556% → 67%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
43.8%
(07:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #4 N.Punni caught at NDSU22, for 6 yards to the NDSU26 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
43.4%
(07:16) #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short middle to #84 L.Conklin thrown to NDSU40Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+16
43.7%
(07:12) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #84 L.Conklin caught at NDSU30, for 16 yards to the NDSU42 (#9 M.Mustell; #22 E.Oyamendan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
43.0%
(06:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NDSU46 (#95 N.Daniels; #48 A.Menard)Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+6
42.9%
(06:10) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AF48 (#30 I.Hubert), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
42.5%
(05:32) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF46 (#8 D.Daley)Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
42.3%
(04:47) #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #44 L.Kokat thrown to AF45 QB hurried by #45 J.ReeseSimilar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+6
42.5%
(04:41) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #5 M.Mitchell caught at NDSU48, for 6 yards to the AF40 (#26 A.Perez)Similar
Q1 3:55
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+2
42.9%
(04:04) #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF38 (#48 A.Menard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
42.1%
(03:27) Shotgun #4 N.Punni rush right for 4 yards gain to the AF34 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+5
41.6%
PENALTY NDSU False Start (#68 C.Okeson) 5 yards from AF34 to AF39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+12
41.6%
(02:22) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #81 R.Kessel caught at AF33, for 12 yards to the AF27 (#5 R.Jones; #8 D.Daley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
40.9%
(01:38) #7 D.Scott rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF26 (#8 D.Daley)Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+8
40.8%
(00:54) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush right for 8 yards gain to the AF18 (#6 B.Fletcher; #8 D.Daley)Similar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 1
OPP 18
0
40.7%
(00:13) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush right for 0 yards to the AF18 (#33 B.Bujnoch; #6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+1
41.4%
(14:58) #2 N.Hayes rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF17 (#2 K.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
32.7%
(14:13) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes rush middle for 17 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:08, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:4338% → 37%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
37.5%
(14:03) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 4 yards gain to the AF29 (#11 M.Stenbroten)Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
37.4%
(13:34) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 0 yards to the AF29 (#8 K.Wilson)Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
37.0%
(12:58) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush right for 3 yards gain to the AF32 (#3 G.Sell)Similar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
36.9%
(12:20) #94 W.Duncan punt 40 yards to the NDSU28 fair catch by #18 J.Williams at NDSU28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2262% → 62%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
37.9%
(12:14) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 0 yards to the NDSU28 (#8 D.Daley; #6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
37.6%
(11:29) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 3 yards gain to the NDSU31 (#45 J.Reese)Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
37.4%
(10:50) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #81 R.Kessel thrown to NDSU42 QB hurried by #8 D.DaleySimilar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
37.9%
(10:48) #39 A.Bickerton punt 46 yards to the AF23 fair catch by #3 M.Long at AF23 PENALTY NDSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from AF23 to AF28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:3036% → 43%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
35.9%
(10:44) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AF32 (#3 G.Sell)Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+35
36.1%
(10:11) #9 L.Szarka pass complete deep left to #3 M.Long caught at NDSU45, for 35 yards to the NDSU33 (#29 D.Givance), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
37.1%
(09:42) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NDSU28 (#8 K.Wilson; #3 G.Sell)Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+4
36.9%
(09:01) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NDSU24 (#1 D.Woolen)Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+5
36.0%
PENALTY AF False Start (#86 G.Stalfort) 5 yards from NDSU24 to NDSU29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+29
43.4%
(08:18) #18 M.Hayes pass complete deep right to #10 A.Hrynciw caught at NDSU03, for 29 yards to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:14, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4360% → 63%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
40.2%
(08:10) No Huddle #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #81 R.Kessel caught at NDSU28, for 23 yards to the NDSU48 (#9 M.Mustell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
38.4%
(07:33) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush right for 1 yard gain to the NDSU49 (#99 J.Oquendo; #6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+2
38.2%
(06:55) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush right for 2 yards gain to the AF49 (#95 N.Daniels)Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+5
37.5%
(06:11) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #17 I.St. Romain caught at AF45, for 5 yards to the AF44 (#26 A.Perez)Similar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+44
36.8%
(05:26) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short middle to #15 M.Collins caught at AF40, for 44 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:20, 1ST DOWN Timeout North Dakota State, clock 05:28 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8INT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:5133% → 33%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
33.4%
(05:18) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AF29 (#94 L.Larson)Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
33.2%
(04:46) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 7 yards gain to the AF36 (#1 D.Woolen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
33.5%
(04:09) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF37 (#94 L.Larson)Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
33.0%
(03:33) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete short right to #44 R.Conti thrown to AF41 QB hurried by #11 M.StenbrotenSimilar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-25
32.7%
(03:31) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass intercepted by #3 G.Sell at AF50 #3 G.Sell return 25 yards to the AF25 (#28 G.LaDue)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 9INT TD
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:3072% → 68%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
28.2%
(03:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 J.Williams rush left for 10 yards gain to the AF15 (#6 B.Fletcher), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
27.1%
(02:37) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 7 yards gain to the AF13 (#26 A.Perez; #6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
20.7%
(02:04) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #4 N.Punni caught at AF11, for 2 yards to the AF11 (#6 B.Fletcher), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 1
OPP 11
-95
32.1%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass intercepted by #6 B.Fletcher at AF05 #6 B.Fletcher return 95 yards to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:48 Timeout North Dakota State, clock 02:00 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt failed ( blocked by #11 M.Stenbroten) (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms) recovered by NDSU North Dakota St. at NDSU15, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:0761% → 83%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
39.0%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #5 M.Mitchell caught at NDSU28, for 5 yards to the NDSU40 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
38.1%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short middle to #81 R.Kessel caught at NDSU47, for 7 yards to the NDSU47 (#8 D.Daley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
38.2%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 1 yard gain to the NDSU48 (#5 R.Jones)Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
38.3%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep right to #15 M.Collins thrown to AF18Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+51
39.0%
(00:40) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep left to #18 J.Williams caught at AF07, for 51 yards to the AF01 (#22 E.Oyamendan; #26 A.Perez), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY AF Pass Interference declinedSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.6%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:29 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
33.7%
(00:25) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF26 (#94 L.Larson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 2:1026% → 23%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.7%
(14:58) #2 O.Allen rush right for 2 yards gain to the AF27 (#1 D.Woolen)Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
25.4%
(14:25) #9 L.Szarka rush for 5 yards gain to the AF32 (#29 D.Givance; #14 T.Eady)Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
25.8%
(13:54) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AF37 (#54 A.Wayne; #94 L.Larson) PENALTY AF Chop Block (#58 T.Tarascio) 15 yards from AF32 to AF17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+2
23.9%
(13:32) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush right for 2 yards gain to the AF19, out of bounds at AF19Similar
Q3 12:46
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+40
23.3%
(13:00) #94 W.Duncan punt 60 yards to the NDSU21 #18 J.Williams return 40 yards to the AF39 (#2 K.Johnson; #51 V.Canosa)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 13TD
2 plays · 39 yds · 0:3881% → 90%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
19.4%
(12:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 2 yards loss to the AF41 (#30 I.Hubert; #59 C.Barnett)Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+41
9.7%
(12:08) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep left to #84 L.Conklin caught at AF08, for 41 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:02, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14MISSED FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 6:4715% → 7%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
15.3%
(11:55) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short middle to #44 J.Bowman caught at AF40, for 21 yards to the AF46 (#52 K.Williams; #54 A.Wayne), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
14.2%
(11:23) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF48 (#8 K.Wilson; #42 A.Elliott)Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
13.9%
(10:46) Shotgun #3 M.Long rush right for 2 yards gain to the AF50 (#54 A.Wayne)Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 6
50
0
12.3%
(10:10) Shotgun #44 R.Conti rush right for 0 yards to the AF50 (#41 P.Haugo; #6 J.Crumby)Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 6
50
+11
11.2%
(09:35) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 11 yards gain to the NDSU39 (#14 T.Eady; #41 P.Haugo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
11.2%
(08:52) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 11 yards gain to the NDSU28 (#4 N.Nelson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
9.5%
(08:19) #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 9 yards gain to the NDSU19 (#29 D.Givance)Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+8
9.1%
(07:31) #9 L.Szarka pass complete short right to #29 S.Maiava-Alaimalo caught at NDSU17, for 8 yards to the NDSU11 (#1 D.Woolen; #11 M.Stenbroten), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
8.7%
(06:58) #9 L.Szarka rush left for 5 yards gain to the NDSU06 (#1 D.Woolen; #22 H.Artz)Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 5
OPP 6
-7
8.4%
(06:22) #9 L.Szarka sacked for loss of 7 yards to the NDSU13 (#41 P.Haugo)Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 12
OPP 13
+2
7.0%
(05:36) #44 R.Conti rush left for 2 yards gain to the NDSU11, out of bounds at NDSU11Similar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
6.5%
(05:00) #90 C.Cremascoli field goal attempt from 28 yards NO GOOD (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms), clock 05:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3596% → 97%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
3.9%
(04:56) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush left for 1 yard gain to the NDSU21 (#48 A.Menard)Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
3.7%
(04:21) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush left for 3 yards gain to the NDSU24 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
3.4%
(03:32) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #3 J.Patterson thrown to NDSU38 broken up by #24 J.Elie-StuartSimilar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
3.5%
(03:25) #39 A.Bickerton punt 49 yards to the AF27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
16 plays · 73 yds · 7:015% → 13%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+26
5.3%
(03:15) #9 L.Szarka pass complete deep middle to #29 S.Maiava-Alaimalo caught at NDSU47, for 26 yards to the NDSU47 (#4 N.Nelson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
5.5%
(02:39) Shotgun #44 R.Conti rush left for 7 yards gain to the NDSU40 (#3 G.Sell)Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+2
5.7%
(01:59) #2 O.Allen rush right for 2 yards gain to the NDSU38 (#41 P.Haugo)Similar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+1
5.5%
(01:31) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 1 yard gain to the NDSU37 (#1 D.Woolen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
5.0%
(00:56) #9 L.Szarka rush left for 9 yards gain to the NDSU28 (#48 B.Schiltz; #1 D.Woolen)Similar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+3
5.2%
(00:22) #2 O.Allen rush right for 3 yards gain to the NDSU25 (#1 D.Woolen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
5.0%
(14:57) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NDSU21 (#14 T.Eady)Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+5
4.7%
(14:21) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 5 yards gain to the NDSU16 (#29 D.Givance)Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+3
3.8%
(14:00) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NDSU13 (#94 L.Larson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
3.9%
(13:36) #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NDSU12 (#41 P.Haugo; #16 M.Moore)Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+4
3.8%
(13:03) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 4 yards gain to the NDSU08 (#14 T.Eady; #94 L.Larson)Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+3
3.4%
(12:23) #4 K.Hodges rush left for 3 yards gain to the NDSU05 (#93 A.Okes; #29 D.Givance)Similar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+10
3.2%
(11:39) #44 R.Conti rush right for 5 yards gain to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 11:39 PENALTY AF Holding (#3 M.Long) 10 yards from NDSU05 to NDSU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+13
2.8%
(11:32) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short left to #80 S.Kibbee caught at NDSU05, for 13 yards to the NDSU02 (#30 J.Archibald), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
12.8%
(11:01) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 2 yards gain to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:59 #9 L.Szarka pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0696% → 96%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
4.3%
(10:55) Shotgun #4 N.Punni rush middle for 15 yards gain to the NDSU40 (#24 J.Elie-Stuart), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
3.7%
(10:14) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes rush right for 1 yard loss to the NDSU39 (#9 M.Mustell)Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
3.6%
(09:38) Shotgun #4 N.Punni rush right for 0 yards to the NDSU39 (#6 B.Fletcher; #8 D.Daley)Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
3.5%
(08:58) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep middle to #18 J.Williams thrown to AF15 broken up by #26 A.PerezSimilar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
3.7%
(08:51) #39 A.Bickerton punt 61 yards to the AF00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 4:134% → 9%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
3.6%
(08:44) #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 12 yards gain to the AF32 (#14 T.Eady), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
3.5%
(08:19) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete short middle to #8 J.Dawson thrown to AF50 QB hurried by #1 D.WoolenSimilar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+9
3.4%
(08:15) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 9 yards gain to the AF41 (#29 D.Givance)Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+8
3.6%
(07:52) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush right for 8 yards gain to the AF49 (#30 J.Archibald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
3.5%
(07:30) #2 O.Allen rush right for 1 yard gain to the AF50 (#41 P.Haugo)Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 9
50
0
3.3%
(07:01) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete deep middle to #10 A.Hrynciw thrown to NDSU17 broken up by #16 M.Moore QB hurried by #94 L.LarsonSimilar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 9
50
0
3.2%
(06:57) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete deep middle to #29 S.Maiava-Alaimalo thrown to NDSU25Similar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 9
50
+15
3.1%
(06:53) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete deep right to #44 J.Bowman thrown to NDSU20 QB hurried by #3 G.Sell PENALTY NDSU Roughing The Passer (#3 G.Sell) 15 yards from AF50 to NDSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
3.7%
(06:46) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush middle for 11 yards gain to the NDSU24 (#14 T.Eady), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
3.6%
(06:24) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NDSU17 (#29 D.Givance)Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+9
3.5%
(06:02) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush right for 9 yards gain to the NDSU08 (#52 K.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
2.9%
(05:26) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush left for 4 yards gain to the NDSU04 (#4 N.Nelson)Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
2.1%
(04:50) #9 L.Szarka rush left for 2 yards gain to the NDSU02 (#3 G.Sell; #21 N.Taylor)Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.4%
(04:26) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 19FG
13 plays · 13 yds · 2:0195% → 99%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
4.8%
(04:02) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NDSU50 (#59 C.Barnett; #99 J.Oquendo)Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 9
50
+3
4.6%
(03:40) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF47 (#9 M.Mustell; #99 J.Oquendo)Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+8
3.8%
(02:56) Shotgun #18 J.Williams rush right for 8 yards gain to the AF39 (#5 R.Jones), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
2.6%
(02:43) #5 M.Mitchell rush left for 2 yards gain to the AF37 (#22 E.Oyamendan)Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-1
2.6%
(02:39) #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 1 yard loss to the AF38 (#8 D.Daley)Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
2.5%
(02:37) #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #81 R.Kessel caught at AF38, for 0 yards to the AF38, out of bounds at AF38Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 9
OPP 38
+56
1.0%
(01:58) #37 D.Klein field goal attempt from 56 yards GOOD (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson), clock 01:58Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:022% → 15%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.9%
(01:52) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush left for 0 yards to the AF25 (#8 K.Wilson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
1.8%
(01:48) Shotgun #5 E.Medders pass incomplete short right to #3 M.Long thrown to AF31 broken up by #16 M.MooreSimilar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
1.8%
(01:44) Shotgun #5 E.Medders pass complete short left to #10 A.Hrynciw caught at AF38, for 13 yards to the AF38 (#12 D.Voltz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
2.0%
(01:31) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush right for 5 yards gain to the AF43, out of bounds at AF43Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
2.0%
(01:24) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush right for 4 yards gain to the AF47 (#1 D.Woolen) PENALTY NDSU Targeting (#29 D.Givance) 15 yards from AF47 to NDSU38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
2.2%
(01:14) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush right for 4 yards gain to the NDSU34, out of bounds at NDSU34Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+14
2.8%
(01:11) Shotgun #5 E.Medders pass complete short middle to #80 S.Kibbee caught at NDSU20, for 14 yards to the NDSU20 (#14 T.Eady), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
14.7%
(00:49) Shotgun #5 E.Medders pass complete deep middle to #3 M.Long caught at NDSU00, for 20 yards to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:50, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 21Uncategorized
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0797% → 97%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
2.8%
(00:36) Kneel down at NDSU39 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-1
2.8%
(00:23) Kneel down by North Dakota St. at NDSU38 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:29
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:29 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)
-22.4
TD · Q4 0:50
(00:49) Shotgun #5 E.Medders pass complete deep middle to #3 M.Long caught at NDSU00, for 20 yards to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:50, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)
+11.8
TD · Q2 1:48
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass intercepted by #6 B.Fletcher at AF05 #6 B.Fletcher return 95 yards to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:48 Timeout North Dakota State, clock 02:00 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt failed ( blocked by #11 M.Stenbroten) (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms) recovered by NDSU North Dakota St. at NDSU15, End Of Play
+11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com