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NDSU

North Dakota State 7 at UNLV 13

UNLV
2026 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadNDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreNDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:22 · #4 N.Punni rush middle for 0 yards to the UNLV09 (#7 J.Pope; #36 J.Flowe), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Home team on offense+2.5Pregame prior−3.5Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Score differential+0.8Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:10: (06:13) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep left to #8 C.Kiel caught at UNLV00, for 21 yards to the UNLV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:10, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson) — NDSU win probability +11.3 pts (now 56%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 10:57: (10:57) #32 R.Villela field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #26 M.Choules, LS: #47 T.Jacobson), clock 10:57 — UNLV win probability +9.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q4 6:41: (07:19) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes sacked for loss of 6 yards to the NDSU47 (#42 A.Porter), fumble by #2 N.Hayes recovered by NDSU #76 R.Babatz at NDSU47, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELD — NDSU win probability +10.3 pts (now 24%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:19: Timeout North Dakota State, clock 01:19 — NDSU win probability +14.3 pts (now 20%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:08: (01:14) Kneel down by UNLV at UNLV09 for loss of 2 yards — UNLV win probability +14.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 5 of 8NDSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:39NDSU 4th & 17 at NDSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:11UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:53UNLV 4th & 4 at NDSU 28, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.8%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:25NDSU 4th & 10 at UNLV 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:22NDSU 4th & 1 at UNLV 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.4%−2.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    36.7%−7.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:18UNLV 4th & 11 at NDSU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    50.2%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:10NDSU 4th & 1 at UNLV 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.2
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.8%
    45% to make
    Punt
    52.0%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:46UNLV 4th & 4 at UNLV 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−1.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:11NDSU 4th & 9 at NDSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−2.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:12UNLV 4th & 5 at NDSU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    43.4%−10.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:48NDSU 4th & 6 at UNLV 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:50UNLV 4th & 10 at NDSU 39, up 3
    Close callPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    59.7%−0.6
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:10NDSU 4th & 1 at NDSU 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.6%−3.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:57UNLV 4th & 7 at NDSU 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−18.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:32NDSU 4th & 20 at NDSU 47, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−2.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:53UNLV 4th & 15 at UNLV 40, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−2.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 6:10NDSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 2:0255% → 55%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
44.7%
(14:52) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 0 yards to the NDSU27 (#4 T.Nkuba; #8 K.Ka'aihue)Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
44.9%
(14:14) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes rush left for 1 yard gain to the NDSU28 (#7 J.Pope)Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+14
45.1%
(13:34) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #18 J.Williams caught at NDSU43, for 15 yards to the NDSU43 (#10 T.Fulton) PENALTY NDSU Illegal Use Of Hands (#68 C.Okeson) 14 yards from NDSU28 to NDSU14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 23
OWN 14
+6
45.3%
(13:11) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NDSU20 (#91 E.Rudolph)Similar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 17
OWN 20
0
45.5%
(12:41) #39 A.Bickerton punt 40 yards to the UNLV40 fair catch by #82 P.Zachary at UNLV40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2046% → 46%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
45.5%
(12:35) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush right for 1 yard loss to the UNLV39 (#11 M.Stenbroten; #94 L.Larson)Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+5
45.5%
(12:15) PENALTY UNLV False Start (#70 A.Afoa) 5 yards from UNLV39 to UNLV34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+8
45.5%
(11:55) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UNLV42 (#29 D.Givance; #94 L.Larson) PENALTY UNLV Illegal Shift declinedSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
45.6%
(11:27) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short left to #9 J.Thomas thrown to UNLV50 QB hurried by #29 D.GivanceSimilar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
45.5%
(11:17) #26 M.Choules punt 45 yards to the NDSU13 fair catch by #18 J.Williams at NDSU13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 3INT TD
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:2454% → 52%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
45.6%
(11:11) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes rush right for 12 yards gain to the NDSU25 (#10 T.Fulton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
45.7%
PENALTY NDSU False Start (#5 M.Mitchell) 5 yards from NDSU25 to NDSU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
45.9%
(10:24) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #7 D.Scott caught at NDSU15, for 5 yards to the NDSU25 (#94 L.Conti; #8 K.Ka'aihue)Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-23
47.9%
(09:44) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass intercepted by #42 A.Porter at NDSU23 #42 A.Porter return 23 yards to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:39 #32 R.Villela kick attempt good (H: #26 M.Choules, LS: #47 T.Jacobson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 4INT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:5952% → 52%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.9%
PENALTY NDSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from NDSU25 to NDSU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 15
OPP 0
+4
47.3%
(09:36) #5 M.Mitchell rush left for 4 yards gain to the NDSU24 (#16 M.Altayeb)Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
48.4%
(09:17) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep left to #18 J.Williams thrown to UNLV35Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+28
48.7%
(09:12) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep right to #81 R.Kessel caught at UNLV48, for 28 yards to the UNLV48, out of bounds at UNLV48, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
47.9%
(08:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass intercepted by #1 M.Bin-Wahad at UNLV23 #1 M.Bin-Wahad return 0 yards to the UNLV23 (#8 C.Kiel)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:3649% → 51%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
48.9%
(08:38) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short middle to #6 K.McGee caught at UNLV27, for 7 yards to the UNLV30 (#3 G.Sell)Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+6
49.5%
(08:06) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNLV36 (#29 D.Givance; #94 L.Larson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
49.7%
(07:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush left for 3 yards gain to the UNLV39, out of bounds at UNLV39Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
50.2%
(07:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short left to #10 T.Stellato thrown to UNLV46. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (07:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short left to #10 T.Stellato thrown to UNLV46)Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+12
50.1%
(06:52) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short middle to #84 K.Burnett caught at UNLV49, for 12 yards to the NDSU49 (#29 D.Givance; #16 M.Moore), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NDSU Roughing The Passer (#1 D.Woolen) 15 yards from NDSU49 to NDSU34, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
51.2%
(06:27) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short right to #8 T.Lyons thrown to NDSU25Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
51.2%
(06:23) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NDSU30 (#11 M.Stenbroten; #94 L.Larson)Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+2
51.5%
(05:39) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short right to #9 J.Thomas caught at NDSU33, for 2 yards to the NDSU28 (#16 M.Moore)Similar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+45
51.3%
(04:55) #32 R.Villela field goal attempt from 45 yards NO GOOD (H: #26 M.Choules, LS: #47 T.Jacobson), clock 04:53Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:2149% → 47%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
51.0%
(04:51) #7 D.Scott rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NDSU30 (#8 K.Ka'aihue; #54 P.Purcell)Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+13
51.3%
(04:13) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 13 yards gain to the NDSU43 (#10 T.Fulton; #23 C.Santee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
51.2%
(03:36) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #18 J.Williams thrown to UNLV42 PENALTY UNLV Holding (#1 M.Bin-Wahad) 10 yards from NDSU43 to UNLV47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
50.7%
(03:31) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 5 yards gain to the UNLV42 (#7 J.Pope; #8 K.Ka'aihue)Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+2
50.8%
Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #81 R.Kessel caught at UNLV40, for 2 yards to the UNLV40 (#7 J.Pope)Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 3
OPP 40
-7
50.9%
(02:13) #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 7 yards loss to the UNLV47 (#7 J.Pope; #3 D.Crayton)Similar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
53.0%
(01:32) #39 A.Bickerton punt 42 yards to the UNLV05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7INT
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:5453% → 56%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
53.1%
(01:23) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNLV09 (#9 K.McCaslin; #12 D.Voltz)Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+1
53.2%
(01:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush right for 1 yard gain to the UNLV10 (#1 D.Woolen)Similar
Q1 0:12
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+8
53.2%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short right to #2 T.Reddicks caught at UNLV18, for 8 yards to the UNLV18 (#25 R.James), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
54.1%
Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UNLV27 (#25 R.James)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+5
54.6%
Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short middle to #9 J.Thomas caught at UNLV30, for 5 yards to the UNLV32 (#16 M.Moore), 1ST DOWN. #9 J.Thomas injured on the playSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
54.2%
Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush right for 19 yards gain to the NDSU49, out of bounds at NDSU49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
55.3%
Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short right to #84 K.Burnett thrown to NDSU30 QB hurried by #9 K.McCaslinSimilar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-17
56.2%
Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass intercepted by #25 R.James at NDSU37 #25 R.James return 17 yards to the UNLV46 (#65 A.Robinson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 37 yds · 4:0247% → 44%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
52.7%
Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 9 yards gain to the UNLV37 (#7 J.Pope; #15 B.Alualu-Tuiolemotu)Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+4
52.5%
#5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNLV33 (#15 B.Alualu-Tuiolemotu; #23 C.Santee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
51.9%
Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 15 yards gain to the UNLV18 (#23 C.Santee; #10 T.Fulton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
51.7%
#5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 0 yards to the UNLV18 (#4 T.Nkuba; #44 K.Togafau)Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
51.9%
#32 B.Kpeenu rush right for 3 yards gain to the UNLV15 (#44 K.Togafau)Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+5
52.6%
PENALTY NDSU False Start (#5 M.Mitchell) 5 yards from UNLV15 to UNLV20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+11
53.3%
Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 11 yards gain to the UNLV09 (#10 T.Fulton; #90 E.Logo)Similar
Q2 9:22
4TH & 1
OPP 9
0
55.7%
#4 N.Punni rush middle for 0 yards to the UNLV09 (#7 J.Pope; #36 J.Flowe), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3358% → 58%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
57.6%
(09:20) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNLV12 (#20 W.Steil)Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 7
OWN 12
-5
57.9%
(08:41) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold sacked for loss of 5 yards to the UNLV07 (#9 K.McCaslin) PENALTY UNLV Illegal Formation declinedSimilar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 12
OWN 7
0
58.9%
(08:09) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush right for 0 yards to the UNLV07 (#1 D.Woolen), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 12
OWN 7
0
58.3%
(07:38) #26 M.Choules punt 42 yards to the UNLV49 fair catch by #18 J.Williams at UNLV49 PENALTY UNLV Face Mask (#23 C.Santee) 15 yards from UNLV49 to UNLV34, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:1645% → 56%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
55.3%
(07:36) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNLV31 (#7 J.Pope). #7 J.Pope injured on the playSimilar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+20
54.4%
(07:19) Shotgun #0 P.Brown rush right for 20 yards gain to the UNLV11 (#2 D.Harris), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
54.5%
(06:41) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 11 yards gain to the UNLV00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:41 PENALTY NDSU Holding (#61 G.Schmidt) 10 yards from UNLV11 to UNLV21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 20
OPP 22
+5
55.1%
PENALTY NDSU False Start (#55 K.Anene) 5 yards from UNLV21 to UNLV26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 25
OPP 26
+5
55.6%
(06:37) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes rush left for 5 yards gain to the UNLV21 (#7 J.Pope; #23 C.Santee)Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 20
OPP 21
+21
44.3%
(06:13) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep left to #8 C.Kiel caught at UNLV00, for 21 yards to the UNLV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:10, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT
16 plays · 33 yds · 4:4250% → 51%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
50.4%
(06:10) Shotgun #6 K.McGee rush left for 3 yards gain to the UNLV28 (#6 J.Crumby)Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
50.6%
(05:36) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UNLV36 (#1 D.Woolen; #94 L.Larson) PENALTY UNLV Holding (#64 J.Metzger) 10 yards from UNLV28 to UNLV18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+18
50.2%
(05:23) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush right for 18 yards gain to the UNLV36, out of bounds at UNLV36, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
51.7%
(04:49) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNLV41 (#8 K.Wilson; #94 L.Larson)Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
53.2%
(04:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush right for 4 yards gain to the UNLV45 (#16 M.Moore)Similar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
52.7%
(03:34) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNLV48 (#1 D.Woolen; #8 K.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
53.4%
(02:56) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short left to #2 T.Reddicks thrown to NDSU34 broken up by #1 D.Woolen QB hurried by #1 D.Woolen. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
52.9%
(02:51) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush right for 4 yards gain to the NDSU48 (#20 W.Steil; #34 D.Russell)Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+7
53.1%
(02:16) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short right to #84 K.Burnett caught at NDSU42, for 7 yards to the NDSU41 (#20 W.Steil), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
54.3%
(01:58) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush left for 4 yards gain to the NDSU37 (#8 K.Wilson)Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
54.3%
(01:36) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short middle to #84 K.Burnett thrown to NDSU20Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 6
OPP 37
-3
53.6%
(01:32) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold sacked for loss of 5 yards to the NDSU42 (#25 R.James, #1 D.Woolen)Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
50.6%
(01:25) #26 M.Choules punt 34 yards to the NDSU08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 12MISSED FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 1:0052% → 54%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+18
48.3%
(01:18) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #17 I.St. Romain caught at NDSU05, for 18 yards to the NDSU26 (#7 J.Pope), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
47.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep left to #17 I.St. Romain thrown to UNLV50Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
48.0%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 B.Wavrunek rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NDSU32 (#94 L.Conti)Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+6
48.8%
(00:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 B.Wavrunek rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NDSU38 (#94 L.Conti; #54 P.Purcell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
47.2%
(00:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep right to #18 J.Williams thrown to UNLV20Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
47.4%
(00:43) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #11 J.McCants caught at NDSU44, for 9 yards to the NDSU47 (#2 D.Harris)Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+9
45.6%
(00:38) Shotgun #26 B.Wavrunek rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UNLV44 (#4 T.Nkuba; #8 K.Ka'aihue), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
44.2%
(00:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #17 I.St. Romain thrown to UNLV30 broken up by #1 M.Bin-WahadSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
44.8%
(00:23) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #15 M.Collins thrown to UNLV38Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+9
46.0%
(00:21) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #8 C.Kiel caught at UNLV37, for 9 yards to the UNLV35 (#1 M.Bin-Wahad), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+53
46.5%
(00:13) #37 D.Klein field goal attempt from 53 yards NO GOOD (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson), clock 00:10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
53.2%
(00:08) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UNLV42, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:1252% → 51%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
52.1%
(14:58) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short right to #6 K.McGee caught at UNLV40, for 15 yards to the UNLV40 (#1 D.Woolen) PENALTY UNLV Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from UNLV25 to UNLV20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
51.9%
(14:36) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNLV25 (#8 K.Wilson; #9 K.McCaslin)Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
52.1%
(14:09) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush left for 5 yards gain to the UNLV30 (#1 D.Woolen; #25 R.James)Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
51.7%
(13:33) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush left for 1 yard gain to the UNLV31 (#3 G.Sell)Similar
Q3 12:46
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
50.7%
(12:53) #26 M.Choules punt 43 yards to the NDSU26 #18 J.Williams return 5 yards to the NDSU31 (#13 J.Allen)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2852% → 49%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
48.2%
(12:42) No Huddle #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NDSU35 (#8 K.Ka'aihue; #54 P.Purcell)Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-3
47.9%
(12:07) No Huddle #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 3 yards loss to the NDSU32 (#44 K.Togafau)Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
50.3%
(11:29) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep right to #15 M.Collins thrown to UNLV30 broken up by #2 D.HarrisSimilar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 9
OWN 32
+27
51.5%
(11:24) #39 A.Bickerton punt 49 yards to the UNLV19 #82 P.Zachary return 27 yards to the UNLV46 (#41 P.Haugo)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:5056% → 61%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
55.5%
(11:09) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 15 yards gain to the NDSU39 (#6 J.Crumby), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
56.5%
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush left for 7 yards gain to the NDSU32 (#16 M.Moore)Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+15
57.8%
(10:09) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush left for 15 yards gain to the NDSU17 (#1 D.Woolen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
57.9%
(09:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NDSU12 (#8 K.Wilson)Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 5
OPP 12
0
58.0%
(09:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 0 yards to the NDSU12 (#20 W.Steil; #93 A.Okes)Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
56.8%
(08:52) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush left for 0 yards to the NDSU12 (#11 M.Stenbroten; #94 L.Larson)Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+29
60.7%
(08:12) #32 R.Villela field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #26 M.Choules, LS: #47 T.Jacobson), clock 08:12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:1643% → 42%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
57.0%
(08:04) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #18 J.Williams thrown to NDSU33 PENALTY UNLV Roughing The Passer (#94 L.Conti) 15 yards from NDSU32 to NDSU47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
54.4%
(08:01) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NDSU48 (#94 L.Conti; #44 K.Togafau)Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+3
54.9%
(07:40) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNLV49 (#16 M.Altayeb; #44 K.Togafau)Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
54.7%
(07:00) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short middle to #18 J.Williams thrown to UNLV45Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
57.7%
(06:55) #39 A.Bickerton punt 38 yards to the UNLV11 fair catch by #82 P.Zachary at UNLV11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 50 yds · 5:5160% → 61%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
59.9%
(06:49) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UNLV18 (#9 K.McCaslin; #22 H.Artz) PENALTY NDSU Face Mask (#3 G.Sell) 15 yards from UNLV18 to UNLV33, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
60.8%
(06:20) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush left for 2 yards gain to the UNLV35 (#1 D.Woolen; #16 M.Moore)Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+3
61.7%
(05:39) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush right for 3 yards gain to the UNLV38 (#25 R.James)Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+8
61.6%
(04:54) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short middle to #6 K.McGee caught at UNLV46, for 8 yards to the UNLV46 (#6 J.Crumby), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
63.8%
(04:18) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush right for 9 yards gain to the NDSU45 (#34 D.Russell), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+6
65.1%
(03:36) Shotgun #24 D.Jones rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NDSU39 (#1 D.Woolen; #25 R.James), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
65.4%
(02:58) Shotgun #24 D.Jones rush middle for 0 yards to the NDSU39 (#1 D.Woolen)Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
65.4%
(02:22) Shotgun #24 D.Jones rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NDSU35 (#25 R.James; #9 K.McCaslin)Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 6
OPP 35
-4
65.3%
(01:37) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush middle for 4 yards loss to the NDSU39 (#1 D.Woolen; #3 G.Sell)Similar
Q3 0:50
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
61.2%
(00:55) #26 M.Choules punt 30 yards to the NDSU09 fair catch by #18 J.Williams at NDSU09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2837% → 32%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
63.2%
(00:47) #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 0 yards to the NDSU09 (#42 A.Porter; #2 D.Harris)Similar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+8
63.8%
(00:15) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #17 I.St. Romain caught at NDSU15, for 8 yards to the NDSU17 (#1 M.Bin-Wahad), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+1
64.4%
(14:58) Shotgun #0 P.Brown rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NDSU18 (#10 T.Fulton; #54 P.Purcell)Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
68.0%
(14:10) #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 0 yards to the NDSU18 (#23 C.Santee; #8 K.Ka'aihue), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20FG
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:0473% → 82%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
73.4%
(14:10) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush right for 4 yards gain to the NDSU14 (#14 T.Eady; #34 D.Russell)Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+10
73.7%
(13:27) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush right for 10 yards gain to the NDSU04 (#3 G.Sell; #14 T.Eady), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
74.5%
(12:58) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush right for 1 yard loss to the NDSU05 fumbled by #11 J.Arnold at NDSU05 forced by #22 H.Artz recovered by UNLV #11 J.Arnold at NDSU05, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 11:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
73.0%
(12:00) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NDSU02 (#8 K.Wilson; #94 L.Larson)Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+5
71.6%
PENALTY UNLV Delay Of Game 5 yards from NDSU02 to NDSU07. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
71.8%
(11:05) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short right to #2 T.Reddicks thrown to NDSU00 broken up by #6 J.CrumbySimilar
Q4 10:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
81.7%
(10:57) #32 R.Villela field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #26 M.Choules, LS: #47 T.Jacobson), clock 10:57Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 4:1424% → 19%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
76.5%
(10:46) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep middle to #11 J.McCants thrown to UNLV35 PENALTY UNLV Pass Interference (#2 D.Harris) 15 yards from NDSU14 to NDSU29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
75.4%
(10:41) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #15 M.Collins caught at NDSU33, for 6 yards to the NDSU35 (#1 M.Bin-Wahad), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+11
75.9%
(10:13) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 11 yards gain to the NDSU46 (#54 P.Purcell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
74.9%
(09:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 2 yards gain to the NDSU48 (#7 J.Pope)Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+9
75.2%
(09:15) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UNLV43 (#8 K.Ka'aihue; #23 C.Santee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
74.8%
(08:30) #26 B.Wavrunek rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UNLV44 (#23 C.Santee)Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 11
OPP 44
-3
76.5%
(07:57) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #26 B.Wavrunek caught at UNLV48, for 3 yards loss to the UNLV47 (#4 T.Nkuba)Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 14
OPP 0
-6
76.1%
(07:19) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes sacked for loss of 6 yards to the NDSU47 (#42 A.Porter), fumble by #2 N.Hayes recovered by NDSU #76 R.Babatz at NDSU47, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 20
OWN 47
0
81.5%
(06:37) #39 A.Bickerton punt 36 yards to the UNLV17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:2786% → 88%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+28
85.5%
(06:30) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete deep right to #6 K.McGee caught at UNLV45, for 28 yards to the UNLV45 (#14 T.Eady), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
88.5%
(05:55) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 0 yards to the UNLV45 (#9 K.McCaslin; #25 R.James)Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
88.8%
(05:17) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush right for 1 yard gain to the UNLV46 (#1 D.Woolen; #94 L.Larson)Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-6
88.7%
(04:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush middle for 6 yards loss to the UNLV40, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 15
OWN 40
0
87.8%
(03:57) #26 M.Choules punt 60 yards to the NDSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 23INT
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:2016% → 15%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
83.6%
(03:53) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 0 yards to the NDSU20 (#44 K.Togafau; #54 P.Purcell)Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+16
84.7%
(03:18) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short middle to #18 J.Williams caught at NDSU36, for 16 yards to the NDSU36 (#4 T.Nkuba), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
82.5%
(02:51) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NDSU40 (#7 J.Pope; #54 P.Purcell)Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
81.2%
(02:29) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #15 M.Collins caught at NDSU45, for 5 yards to the NDSU45 (#1 M.Bin-Wahad)Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
79.4%
(02:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NDSU48 (#8 K.Ka'aihue; #54 P.Purcell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+28
81.2%
(02:00) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes rush right for 28 yards gain to the UNLV24 (#7 J.Pope), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-7
73.8%
(01:48) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes sacked for loss of 7 yards to the UNLV31 (#3 D.Crayton)Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 17
OPP 31
+10
81.8%
(01:39) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep left to #15 M.Collins thrown to UNLV00 PENALTY NDSU Holding (#55 K.Anene) 10 yards from UNLV31 to UNLV41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 27
OPP 41
-2
85.1%
(01:32) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass intercepted by #1 M.Bin-Wahad at UNLV27 #1 M.Bin-Wahad return 2 yards to the UNLV29 (#15 M.Collins)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · -21 yds · 0:4795% → 96%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
94.8%
PENALTY UNLV UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#54 P.Purcell) 14 yards from UNLV29 to UNLV15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
94.6%
(01:17) Kneel down by UNLV at UNLV11 for loss of 4 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 14
OWN 11
-2
95.0%
(01:14) Kneel down by UNLV at UNLV09 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 30
OWN 9
-1
96.0%
(00:36) Kneel down by UNLV at UNLV08 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:08
(01:14) Kneel down by UNLV at UNLV09 for loss of 2 yards
+14.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:19
Timeout North Dakota State, clock 01:19
-14.3
TD · Q2 6:10
(06:13) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep left to #8 C.Kiel caught at UNLV00, for 21 yards to the UNLV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:10, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)
-11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com