Stephen F. Austin

Drives vs. expectation, 2020

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Stephen F. Austin allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.

Game by game

1. L
   UTEP
2. L
   UTSA
3. L
   SMU
4. L
   MEM

Bars above the line: better than expected for Stephen F. Austin.

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Stephen F. Austin's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and every call that differed was a close one. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at MEMQ3 7:52 4th & 1 at SFA 12, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
2. at UTSAQ2 2:34 4th & 2 at SFA 20, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
3. at UTSAQ1 3:21 4th & 3 at UTSA 49, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
4. at MEMQ3 13:37 4th & 4 at SFA 46, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
5. at MEMQ1 5:18 4th & 2 at SFA 45, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
6. at SMUQ2 0:14 4th & 1 at SMU 37, down 29Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
7. at SMUQ4 5:56 4th & 13 at SMU 45, down 43Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2020

Expected wins adds up Stephen F. Austin's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   UTEP
2. L

   UTSA
3. L

   SMU
4. L

   MEM

What moved it, 2020

Every game starts at Stephen F. Austin's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.55
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Timeouts−0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.09

Game by game

• UTEPL 14-24 at UTEP38% → 4%Before kickoff −12 · On the field −34: Scoreboard −32, Timeouts −2
• UTSAL 10-24 at UTSA11% → 1%Before kickoff −39 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −15
• SMUL 7-50 at SMU1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −3
• MEML 14-56 at MEM3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −5

Points of win probability, from Stephen F. Austin's side.