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SFA

Stephen F. Austin 7 at SMU 50

SMU
2020 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2020 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadSFA aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreSFA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:43 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFAus 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 12:34: Ulysses Bentley IV run for 33 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar PAT BLOCKED) — SFA win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:23: Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 9 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK) — SMU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:21: Danny Gray run for 6 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK) — SMU win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:42: Ulysses Bentley IV run for 13 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK) — SMU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:22: Trae Self run for 6 yds for a TD (Chris Campos KICK) — SMU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SFA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SFA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:27SFA 4th & 9 at SFA 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:49SFA 4th & 21 at SFA 14, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:44SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 49, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:49SFA 4th & 2 at SMU 31, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:14SFA 4th & 1 at SMU 37, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00SFA 4th & 26 at SFA 20, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  7. Q4 15:00SMU 4th & 13 at SMU 36, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:50SFA 4th & 3 at SFA 34, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:16SMU 4th & 3 at SFA 27, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:15SFA 4th & 9 at SFA 28, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:44SFA 4th & 8 at SFA 27, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:56SFA 4th & 13 at SMU 45, down 43
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SFA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:34SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:52SMU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:21SMU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:42SMU Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:22SFA Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:44SMU Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:01SMU Touchdown, up 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:2699% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
98.7%
TJ McDaniel run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
98.7%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+18
98.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 18 yds to the SFA 44 for a 1ST down SFA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
98.7%
TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the SFAus 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+6
98.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 6 yds to the SFAus 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+3
98.7%
TJ McDaniel run for 3 yds to the SFAus 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
98.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 33 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
98.5%
Josh McGowen run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 27Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+3
98.5%
Josh McGowen run for 3 yds to the SFAus 30Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
98.5%
Josh McGowen run for no gain to the SFAus 30Similar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
98.5%
Max Quick punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 3:3698% → 98%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
98.4%
TJ McDaniel run for 1 yd to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
98.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+11
98.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 11 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
98.4%
TJ McDaniel run for 5 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
98.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr., broken up by Willie RobertsSimilar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-5
98.4%
BUECHELE, Shane pass complete to RICE, Rashee for 25 yards to the SFAFB27 (Harmon, Bruce), PENALTY SMU illegal formation 5 yards to the SMU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+15
98.4%
BUECHELE, Shane pass incomplete to RICE, Rashee (Harmon, Bruce), PENALTY SFAFB pass interference (Harmon, Bruce) 15 yards to the SFAFB42, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
98.4%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the SFAus 42Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+16
98.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for 16 yds to the SFAus 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
98.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 11 yds to the SFAus 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
98.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the SFAus 11Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+11
98.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for 11 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 4SF
6 plays · -11 yds · 2:032% → 2%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.3%
Trae Self pass complete to Larry Jones III for 3 yds Larry Jones III fumbled, forced by Trevor Denbow, recovered by SFAus Larry Jones IIISimilar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.3%
Trae Self pass complete to Xavier Gipson for no gain to the SFAus 25Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-6
98.3%
Trae Self sacked by Elijah Chatman for a loss of 6 yards to the SFAus 19Similar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 16
OWN 19
-5
98.3%
SFA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SFAus 14Similar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
98.5%
Max Quick punt blocked by Keke Burns for a SAFETY blocked by Keke Burns for a SAFETY for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:1299% → 99%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+23
98.5%
TJ McDaniel run for 23 yds to the SFAus 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
98.5%
Shane Buechele sacked by BJ Thompson for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 23Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+7
98.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 7 yds to the SFAus 16Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+12
98.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 12 yds to the SFAus 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
98.5%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFAus 9Similar
Q1 2:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 9 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 6INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:231% → 1%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.6%
Trae Self pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 9 yds to the SFAus 34Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
98.6%
Jaquarion Turner run for 5 yds to the SFAus 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
98.6%
Jaquarion Turner run for 4 yds to the SFAus 43Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+1
98.6%
Jaquarion Turner run for 1 yd to the SFAus 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
-19
98.6%
Trae Self pass intercepted Brandon Crossley return for 4 yds to the SMU 48 SMU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the SMU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 3:1099% → 99%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
98.7%
TJ McDaniel run for 5 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+3
98.7%
TJ McDaniel run for 3 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+2
98.7%
TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the SFAus 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
98.7%
Shane Buechele sacked by Larron Cox for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 16
OWN 45
+4
98.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 4 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 12
OWN 49
0
98.8%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 12
OWN 49
+30
98.7%
Chris Naggar punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Larry Jones III at the SFA 16 SMU Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the SFAus 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 8DOWNS
11 plays · 47 yds · 5:451% → 2%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
98.6%
Trae Self pass complete to Remi Simmons for 19 yds to the SFAus 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
98.5%
Jaquarion Turner run for 1 yd to the SFAus 41Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
98.5%
Jaquarion Turner run for 5 yds to the SFAus 46Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+4
98.5%
Jaquarion Turner run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
50
+1
98.5%
Tre'Jon Henderson run for 1 yd to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+10
98.5%
Trae Self pass complete to Remi Simmons for 10 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
98.5%
Trae Self sacked by Will Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 16
OPP 45
+14
98.5%
Trae Self pass complete to Tre'Jon Henderson for 14 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 2
OPP 31
0
98.5%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Remi SimmonsSimilar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 2
OPP 31
-1
98.5%
Trae Self run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:1999% → 100%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
98.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 17 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
99.0%
TJ McDaniel run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 9
50
+12
99.0%
TJ McDaniel run for 12 yds to the SFAus 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
99.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 12 yds to the SFAus 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
99.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tommy McIntyre for 6 yds to the SFAus 20Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+6
98.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 6 yds to the SFAus 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
99.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 8 yds to the SFAus 6Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 2
OPP 6
0
98.9%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
99.6%
Danny Gray run for 6 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 10DOWNS
12 plays · 38 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.6%
Trae Self sacked by Junior Aho for a loss of 1 yard to the SFAus 24Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
99.6%
Jaquarion Turner run for no gain to the SFAus 24Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
99.7%
JaQuarion, Turn rush for 2 yards to the SFAFB26 (ROBINSON, D.), PENALTY SMU substitution infraction 5 yards to the SFAFB29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
99.6%
Trae Self pass complete to Xavier Gipson for 8 yds to the SFAus 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
99.7%
Trae Self pass complete to Chad Aune for 17 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.6%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Chad AuneSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
99.6%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Lawton RikelSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+9
99.7%
Trae Self pass complete to Xavier Gipson for 9 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 1
OPP 37
0
99.6%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Remi SimmonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.6%
Trae Self pass complete to Xavier Gipson for 11 yds to the SFAus 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
99.6%
Jaquarion Turner run for a loss of 6 yards to the SFAus 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 30
-2
99.6%
Jaquarion Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 28
-12
99.6%
Jaquarion Turner run for 3 yds to the SFAus 31 SFA Penalty, illegal block (Larry Jones III) to the SFAus 16Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 30
OWN 16
+4
99.6%
Trae Self run for 4 yds to the SFAus 20Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 26
OWN 20
+11
99.6%
Max Quick punt for 44 yds , Danny Gray returns for 11 yds to the SMU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:14100% → 100%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+28
99.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 28 yds to the SFAus 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
99.8%
TJ McDaniel run for 12 yds to the SFAus 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
99.8%
TJ McDaniel run for 4 yds to the SFAus 9Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+6
99.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 6 yds to the SFAus 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
99.8%
LAVINE, Tyler rush for 3 yards to the SFAFB0, clock 09:46, PENALTY SMU illegal block (GRAY, Danny) 10 yards to the SFAFB13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
99.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 13 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 14TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 8:200% → 0%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
Jaquarion Turner run for 5 yds to the SFAus 30Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
99.8%
Jaquarion Turner run for 6 yds to the SFAus 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.8%
Tre'Jon Henderson run for 3 yds to the SFAus 39Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+21
99.8%
Tre'Jon Henderson run for 21 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
99.8%
Jaquarion Turner run for 6 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+6
99.7%
Trae Self pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 6 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
99.8%
Jaquarion Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 32 Jaquarion Turner fumbled, forced by Gary Wiley, recovered by SFAus Zach IngramSimilar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 14
OPP 32
-4
99.8%
Tre'Jon Henderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 35 Tre'Jon Henderson fumbled, recovered by SFAus Tre'Jon HendersonSimilar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 17
OPP 35
+17
99.8%
Trae Self pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 17 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
99.7%
Trae Self pass complete to Larry Jones III for 4 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 6
OPP 14
-2
99.7%
Jaquarion Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 16Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+9
99.8%
Trae Self pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 9 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
99.8%
Jaquarion Turner run for 1 yd to the SMU 6Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Trae Self run for 6 yds for a TD (Chris Campos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:16100% → 100%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Tommy McIntyreSimilar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+18
99.9%
TJ McDaniel run for 18 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.9%
TJ McDaniel run for 5 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-8
99.9%
Danny Gray run for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Chris Naggar punt for 37 yds , Larry Jones III returns for no gain to the SFAus 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
99.9%
Jaquarion Turner run for 1 yd to the SFAus 28Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+6
99.9%
Jaquarion Turner run for 6 yds to the SFAus 34Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Jaquarion TurnerSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Jeremiah MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
99.9%
BUECHELE, Shane pass complete to RICE, Rashee for 34 yards to the SFAFB0, clock 13:16, PENALTY SMU holding (ROBERSON JR, Ro) 10 yards to the SFAFB44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+15
99.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 15 yds to the SFAus 29Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+2
99.9%
TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the SFAus 27Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q4 13:16
4TH & 3
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:380% → 0%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
99.9%
Jaquarion Turner run for 1 yd to the SFAus 28Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Larry Jones IIISimilar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+15
99.9%
Max Quick punt for 41 yds , Danny Gray returns for 15 yds to the SMU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 2:16100% → 100%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
TJ McDaniel run for 5 yds to the SFAus 49Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Terrance Gipson run for 2 yds to the SFAus 47Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+28
99.9%
Terrance Gipson pass complete to Keke Burns for 28 yds to the SFAus 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
99.9%
TaMerik Williams run for 16 yds to the SFAus 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Terrance Gipson run for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Jaquarion Turner run for 2 yds to the SFAus 27Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Jaquarion Turner run for no gain to the SFAus 27Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Preston Weeks pass incomplete to Chad Aune, broken up by Roderick Roberson Jr.Similar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+43
99.9%
Max Quick punt for 46 yds , Bryan Massey returns for 43 yds to the SFAus 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21TD
3 plays · 30 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
99.9%
TaMerik Williams run for 17 yds to the SFAus 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+8
100.0%
Terrance Gipson run for 8 yds to the SFAus 5 SFA Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the SFAus 5Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
TaMerik Williams run for 5 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
100.0%
Jaquarion Turner run for 1 yd to the SFAus 21Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+26
100.0%
Preston Weeks pass complete to Ty Love for 26 yds to the SFAus 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
100.0%
Tre'Jon Henderson run for 4 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
100.0%
Tre'Jon Henderson run for 1 yd to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+6
100.0%
Preston Weeks pass complete to Carson Spence for 6 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
100.0%
Jaquarion Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 12
OPP 44
-1
100.0%
Jaquarion Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 13
OPP 45
0
100.0%
Preston Weeks pass incomplete to Tre'Jon Henderson, broken up by Preston EllisonSimilar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 13
OPP 45
-8
100.0%
Preston Weeks sacked by DeVere Levelston for a loss of 8 yards to the SFAus 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
100.0%
Terrance Gipson pass complete to Matt Dorrity for 3 yds to the SFAus 44Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+6
100.0%
Terrance Gipson run for 6 yds to the SFAus 38Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFAus 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:21
Danny Gray run for 6 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q1 12:34
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 33 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar PAT BLOCKED)
-0.2
TD · Q1 2:23
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 9 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)
+0.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com