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SFA

Stephen F. Austin 14 at Memphis 56

MEM
2020 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2020 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadSFA aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreSFA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:42 · Ja'Bray Young run for 4 yds to the SFAus 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:02: Brady White pass intercepted for a TD Brevin Randle return for 30 yds for a TD (Chris Campos KICK) — SFA win probability +1.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 6:55: Riley Patterson 23 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +1.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:58: Trae Self pass complete to Xavier Gipson for 7 yds for a TD (Chris Campos KICK) — SFA win probability +4.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 2:55: Brady White run for 1 yd for a TD (Calvin Austin III pass to Sean Dykes for Two-Point Conversion) — MEM win probability +5.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:00: Asa Martin run for 6 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9SFA made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00SFA 4th & 10 at SFA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:02SFA 4th & 3 at MEM 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:18SFA 4th & 2 at SFA 45, down 14
    Close callPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:39MEM 4th & 15 at MEM 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00SFA 4th & 5 at SFA 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:58MEM 4th & 1 at SFA 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.2%−0.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:41MEM 4th & 17 at SFA 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:41SFA 4th & 11 at SFA 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:55MEM 4th & 5 at SFA 5, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:50SFA 4th & 4 at SFA 11, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:30MEM 4th & 5 at SFA 35, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    94.5%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:54MEM 4th & 19 at MEM 24, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−1.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:37SFA 4th & 4 at SFA 46, down 6
    Close callPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:45MEM 4th & 2 at SFA 3, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.5%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    89.9%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−3.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:52SFA 4th & 1 at SFA 12, down 6
    Close callPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%−0.9
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:24SFA 4th & 7 at SFA 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:00SFA 4th & 9 at SFA 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:35SFA 4th & 5 at SFA 30, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:42MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 29, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:35SFA 4th & 11 at MEM 31, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:35MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 40, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6SFA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:02MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:18MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:02SFA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:58SFA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:55MEM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    93.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:00MEM Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:35MEM Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:42MEM Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SFADrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
97.2%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Xavier GipsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
97.2%
Jaquarion Turner run for 3 yds to the SFAus 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+8
97.2%
Trae Self pass complete to Jaquarion Turner for 8 yds to the SFAus 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
97.2%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Xavier Gipson, broken up by Rodney OwensSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
97.2%
Jaquarion Turner run for no gain to the SFAus 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
97.2%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Xavier GipsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
97.2%
Max Quick punt for 46 yds, downed at the Memph 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3297% → 97%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.8%
Brady White pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.8%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 15 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
96.9%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 11 yds to the SFAus 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
96.9%
Brady White pass incomplete to Rodrigues ClarkSimilar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
96.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Manuel Orona-Lopez) to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 15
OWN 46
0
96.8%
Brady White pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for no gain to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+21
96.8%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 21 yds to the MEMPHIS 33 for a 1ST down SFA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
96.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 16 yds to the SFAus 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
96.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 19Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+17
96.9%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 17 yds to the SFAus 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
96.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 4Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 3INT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.5%
Korbyn White run for 3 yds to the SFAus 28Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
96.5%
Trae Self pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 16 yds to the SFAus 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
96.5%
SFA Penalty, false start (Terrin Robinson) to the SFAus 39Similar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+8
96.5%
Trae Self pass complete to Remi Simmons for 8 yds to the SFAus 47Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+4
96.5%
Jaquarion Turner run for 4 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
96.5%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Xavier GipsonSimilar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
96.5%
Trae Self pass intercepted Rodney Owens return for no gain to the Memph 49 SFA Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:0496% → 97%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
96.3%
WHITE, Brady pass incomplete to IVORY, Javon, PENALTY SFAFB offside defense (Murray, Amad) 5 yards to the MEM47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 5
OWN 47
-1
96.3%
Kylan Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
96.3%
Brady White pass incomplete to Tahj Washington, broken up by Bruce HarmonSimilar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+6
96.2%
Brady White run for 6 yds to the SFAus 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
96.8%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 48 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.6%
Jaquarion Turner run for 2 yds to the SFAus 27Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
96.5%
Trae Self pass complete to Larry Jones III for 5 yds to the SFAus 32Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
96.5%
Trae Self pass complete to Xavier Gipson for 5 yds to the SFAus 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
96.5%
Jaquarion Turner run for 2 yds to the SFAus 39Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
96.5%
Jaquarion Turner run for no gain to the SFAus 39Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+6
96.5%
Trae Self pass complete to Jaquarion Turner for 6 yds to the SFAus 45Similar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+2
96.5%
Max Quick punt for 37 yds , Calvin Austin III returns for 2 yds to the Memph 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
96.4%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 19Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-5
96.4%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 14Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+1
96.4%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the Memph 15Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
96.3%
Brady White pass incomplete to Javon Ivory, broken up by Bruce HarmonSimilar
Q1 1:39
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
96.3%
Adam Williams punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFAus 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:094% → 4%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
96.0%
Jaquarion Turner run for 2 yds to the SFAus 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+3
96.0%
Jaquarion Turner run for 3 yds to the SFAus 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
96.0%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Xavier GipsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+11
96.1%
Max Quick punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 23 , Calvin Austin III returns for 11 yds to the Memph 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-30
95.0%
Brady White pass intercepted for a TD Brevin Randle return for 30 yds for a TD (Chris Campos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 4:1795% → 95%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+40
95.0%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 40 yds to the SFAus 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
95.3%
Brady White pass incomplete to Tahj Washington, broken up by Myles BrooksSimilar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-15
95.3%
WATKINS, Kylan rush for 5 yards to the SFAFB20 (Randle, Brevin), PENALTY MEM tripping (ORONA-LOPEZ, M.) 15 yards to the SFAFB40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 25
OPP 40
+9
95.1%
Brady White pass complete to Asa Martin for 9 yds to the SFAus 31Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 16
OPP 31
+15
95.0%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 15 yds to the SFAus 16Similar
Q2 13:58
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
95.0%
Brady White run for 2 yds to the SFAus 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
95.3%
Kylan Watkins run for 2 yds to the SFAus 12Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+5
95.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the SFAus 7Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+1
95.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the SFAus 6Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 2
OPP 6
-15
94.5%
WHITE, Brady pass complete to WASHINGTON, T. for 6 yards to the SFAFB0, clock 09:45, PENALTY MEM pass interference (AUSTIN, Calvin) 15 yards to the SFAFB21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 17
OPP 21
+39
94.6%
Riley Patterson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
94.9%
Jaquarion Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFAus 24Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
94.9%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Remi Simmons, broken up by Jacobi FrancisSimilar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
95.0%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Xavier GipsonSimilar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+13
95.1%
Max Quick punt for 39 yds , Calvin Austin III returns for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11FG
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:4495% → 96%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
50
+7
94.9%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 7 yds to the SFAus 43Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+36
94.9%
Marquavius Weaver run for 36 yds to the SFAus 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
95.0%
Kylan Watkins run for 2 yds to the SFAus 5Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
95.0%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin III, broken up by Myles BrooksSimilar
Q2 8:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.8%
Brady White pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q2 6:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
96.1%
Riley Patterson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-4
95.8%
Trae Self sacked by Cole Mashburn for a loss of 4 yards to the SFAus 1Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 14
OWN 1
0
95.8%
SFA Penalty, false start (Justice Guillory) to the SFAus 1Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 14
OWN 1
+10
95.8%
Trae Self pass complete to Xavier Gipson for 10 yds to the SFAus 11Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 4
OWN 11
0
95.8%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Xavier GipsonSimilar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 4
OWN 11
+19
95.8%
Max Quick punt for 53 yds , Calvin Austin III returns for 19 yds to the SFAus 30 SFA Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the SFAus 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13MISSED FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2696% → 95%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
96.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the SFAus 39Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
96.1%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+4
96.0%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 4 yds to the SFAus 35Similar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+53
95.4%
Riley Patterson 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 14TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:325% → 10%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
95.1%
Larry Jones III run for 10 yds to the SFAus 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
95.1%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Remi SimmonsSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
95.1%
Trae Self pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 11 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
94.8%
Ja'Bray Young run for 1 yd to the Memph 43Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
94.8%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Jeremiah MillerSimilar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+12
95.1%
Jaquarion Turner run for 12 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
94.5%
Jaquarion Turner run for no gain to the Memph 31Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+24
94.5%
Trae Self pass complete to Xavier Gipson for 24 yds to the Memph 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
89.9%
Trae Self pass complete to Xavier Gipson for 7 yds for a TD (Chris Campos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
92.1%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 5 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
92.5%
Brady White run for 2 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+13
92.3%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 13 yds to the SFAus 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
92.8%
WHITE, Brady pass incomplete to WASHINGTON, T., PENALTY MEM holding (DALE, Matt) 10 yards to the MEM41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 20
OWN 41
0
92.3%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 20
OWN 41
0
92.2%
Brady White pass incomplete to Javon Ivory, broken up by Tkai LloydSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 20
OWN 41
0
91.9%
Adam Williams punt for 52 yds, downed at the SFAus 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
91.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
91.8%
Brady White pass incomplete to Rodrigues ClarkSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-10
91.4%
Brady White sacked by Dennis Osagiede for a loss of 10 yards to the Memph 24Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 19
OWN 24
+4
90.8%
Adam Williams punt for 40 yds , Xavier Gipson returns for 4 yds to the SFAus 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
89.6%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Jaquarion TurnerSimilar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
89.8%
Trae Self pass complete to Jaquarion Turner for 6 yds to the SFAus 46Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
89.3%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Xavier Gipson, broken up by Rodney OwensSimilar
Q3 13:37
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
90.2%
Max Quick punt for 41 yds , Calvin Austin III returns for no gain to the Memph 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 84 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
90.9%
Brady White run for 3 yds to the Memph 16Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+31
90.9%
Kylan Watkins run for 31 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
91.8%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 18 yds to the SFAus 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
92.0%
Brady White pass complete to Kylan Watkins for no gain to the SFAus 35Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
91.9%
Brady White run for 12 yds to the SFAus 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
91.9%
Kylan Watkins run for 2 yds to the SFAus 21Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+10
91.9%
WHITE, Brady pass incomplete to AUSTIN, Calvin, PENALTY SFAFB holding (Harmon, Bruce) 10 yards to the SFAFB11, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
91.9%
Kylan Watkins run for no gain to the SFAus 11Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
91.9%
Kylan Watkins run for 2 yds to the SFAus 9Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+6
91.6%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 6 yds to the SFAus 3Similar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 2
OPP 3
0
91.0%
Brady White pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
88.3%
Trae Self run for 4 yds to the SFAus 7Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+5
88.4%
Trae Self pass complete to Lavar Lindo for 5 yds to the SFAus 12Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 1
OWN 12
0
88.6%
Jaquarion Turner run for no gain to the SFAus 12Similar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 1
OWN 12
+1
89.1%
Max Quick punt for 48 yds , Calvin Austin III returns for 1 yd to the Memph 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 3:0490% → 96%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
89.6%
Kylan Watkins run for 11 yds to the SFAus 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
89.9%
Kylan Watkins run for 6 yds to the SFAus 42Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-7
89.9%
Brady White sacked by Tkai Lloyd for a loss of 7 yards to the SFAus 49Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+20
88.7%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 20 yds to the SFAus 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+26
90.1%
Marquavius Weaver run for 26 yds to the SFAus 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
90.1%
Marquavius Weaver run for 2 yds to the SFAus 1Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.1%
Brady White run for no gain to the SFAus 1Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.7%
Brady White run for 1 yd for a TD (Calvin Austin III pass to Sean Dykes for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 21PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:315% → 1%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
94.8%
Jaquarion Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 23Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
94.9%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Xavier GipsonSimilar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
95.0%
Trae Self pass complete to Jaquarion Turner for 5 yds to the SFAus 28Similar
Q3 1:24
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+64
98.8%
Max Quick punt for 36 yds , Calvin Austin III returns for 64 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 22INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
98.8%
Remi Simmons run for 18 yds to the SFAus 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
98.7%
Jaquarion Turner run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFAus 40Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 13
OWN 40
-6
98.8%
Trae Self pass intercepted John Cartwright return for 6 yds to the SFAus 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:0699% → 100%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
99.1%
Asa Martin run for 4 yds to the SFAus 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+20
99.1%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 20 yds to the SFAus 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
99.1%
Asa Martin run for 5 yds to the SFAus 6Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Asa Martin run for 6 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Xavier GipsonSimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
99.9%
Trae Self sacked by Joseph Dorceus for a loss of 7 yards to the SFAus 18Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+8
99.9%
Trae Self pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 8 yds to the SFAus 26Similar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+7
99.9%
Max Quick punt for 46 yds , Calvin Austin III returns for 7 yds to the Memph 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:42100% → 100%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+40
99.9%
Kylan Watkins run for 40 yds to the SFAus 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
99.9%
Marquavius Weaver run for 14 yds to the SFAus 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
99.9%
Marquavius Weaver run for 7 yds to the SFAus 4Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Marquavius Weaver run for 4 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Ja'Bray Young run for 5 yds to the SFAus 30Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Preston Weeks pass incomplete to QuenTyvian BordersSimilar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Preston Weeks pass incomplete, broken up by Kajuan RobinsonSimilar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Max Quick punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Calvin Austin III at the Memph 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
Marquavius Weaver run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 24Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
99.9%
Kylan Watkins run for 5 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Connor Adair pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Adam Williams punt for 48 yds, downed at the SFAus 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 28MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:330% → 0%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
99.9%
Preston Weeks pass complete to QuenTyvian Borders for 1 yd to the SFAus 24Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Preston Weeks pass incomplete to Lavar LindoSimilar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+25
99.9%
Preston Weeks pass complete to Xavier Gipson for 25 yds to the SFAus 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
99.9%
Ja'Bray Young run for 3 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Preston Weeks pass incomplete to Ja'Bray YoungSimilar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+18
99.9%
Preston Weeks pass complete to Xavier Gipson for 3 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Joshua Hastings) to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Preston Weeks pass incomplete to Larry Jones IIISimilar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-1
99.9%
Ja'Bray Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 31Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 11
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Preston Weeks pass incomplete to Ty Love, broken up by T.J. CarterSimilar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+48
99.9%
Chris Campos 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 29TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Connor Adair pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
99.9%
Marquavius Weaver run for 6 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+3
99.9%
Asa Martin run for 3 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+13
99.9%
Asa Martin run for 13 yds to the SFAus 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
100.0%
Timothy Taylor run for 47 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 30END OF GAME
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Preston Weeks pass complete to QuenTyvian Borders for 3 yds to the SFAus 28Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
100.0%
Ja'Bray Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFAus 25Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
100.0%
Preston Weeks pass complete to QuenTyvian Borders for 13 yds to the SFAus 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
100.0%
Ja'Bray Young run for 4 yds to the SFAus 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:55
Brady White run for 1 yd for a TD (Calvin Austin III pass to Sean Dykes for Two-Point Conversion)
+5.6
TD · Q2 0:58
Trae Self pass complete to Xavier Gipson for 7 yds for a TD (Chris Campos KICK)
-4.7
FG · Q2 6:55
Riley Patterson 23 yd FG GOOD
+1.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com