Akron

Profile vs. FBS, 2020

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense−0.056th
  Defense+0.401st
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense36.0%10th
  Defense51.5%2nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.4295th
  Defense+1.3520th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0959th
  Defense+0.391st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense−0.212nd
  Defense+0.413rd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense37.8%2nd
  Defense58.9%2nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.6%55th
  Defense34.1%32nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9052nd
  Defense3.911st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense23.4%18th
  Defense9.9%1st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense18.9%21st
  Defense8.6%1st

Percentiles among the 127 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2020

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Akron allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   WMU
2. L
   OHIO
3. L
   KENT
4. L
   M-OH
5. W
   BGSU
6. L
   BUF

Bars above the line: better than expected for Akron.

Players, 2020

1. Teon DollardRB86 plays · +0.197 pts/play · 92nd of 338 RBs
   0.32WAR0.24 to 0.38
2. Nate StewartWR16 plays · +0.152 pts/play · 295th of 409 WRs
   0.05WAR0.03 to 0.06
3. Boogie KnightWR19 plays · +0.093 pts/play · 320th of 409 WRs
   0.03WAR0.01 to 0.05
4. Cory SmigelPK5 plays · +0.197 pts/play · 76th of 97 kickers
   0.02WAR0.01 to 0.03
5. Michael MathisonWR11 plays · +0.067 pts/play · 371st of 409 WRs
   0.01WAR0.00 to 0.02
6. Zach GibsonQB115 plays · +0.004 pts/play · 205th of 212 QBs
   0.01WAR−0.20 to 0.26
7. Julian HicksWR2 plays · +0.093 pts/play · 397th of 409 WRs
   0.00WAR0.00 to 0.01

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Akron's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2020

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  233233122nd of 127Roster talent: 233, 122nd of 127 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  114114124th of 127Recruiting: 114, 124th of 127 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  151%151%1st of 127Returning production: 151%, 1st of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −23.7−23.7125th of 127SP+ rating: −23.7, 125th of 127 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 127 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Akron's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.03 of the 0.05 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at OHIOQ4 8:05 4th & 1 at AKR 29, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.2 pts
2. at OHIOQ3 6:19 4th & 2 at OHIO 49, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
3. vs WMUQ2 13:04 4th & 2 at WMU 24, down 9Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
4. vs M-OHQ1 6:57 4th & 1 at M-OH 49, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
5. vs WMUQ2 3:41 4th & 4 at WMU 11, down 13Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
6. at BUFQ3 12:51 4th & 2 at AKR 47, down 42Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
7. at KENTQ1 4:42 4th & 5 at KENT 42, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
8. at OHIOQ1 5:03 4th & 2 at AKR 35, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2020

68th of 127 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Akron's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   WMU
2. L

   OHIO
3. L

   KENT
4. L

   M-OH
5. W

   BGSU
6. L

   BUF

What moved it, 2020

Every game starts at Akron's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.39
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.24

Game by game

• WMUL 13-58 vs WMU16% → 0%Before kickoff −34 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −21
• OHIOL 10-24 at OHIO7% → 1%Before kickoff −43 · On the field −6: Scoreboard −12
• KENTL 35-69 at KENT7% → 0%Before kickoff −43 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −9
• M-OHL 7-38 vs M-OH22% → 0%Before kickoff −28 · On the field −22: Scoreboard −29, Clock −1
• BGSUW 31-3 vs BGSU62% → 100%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +38: Scoreboard +38, Clock +1
• BUFL 7-56 at BUF3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −5

Points of win probability, from Akron's side.

Closest call

MORG 21-24 AKR (2023) - Akron dropped to a 4.0% win probability before pulling it out.