2020 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2020 · Dix Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:50 · Teon Dollard run for 8 yds for a TD (Cory Smigel KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:56: Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 75 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +4.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:38: Teon Dollard run for 59 yds for a TD (Cory Smigel KICK) — AKR win probability +5.2 pts (now 15%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:58: Teon Dollard run for 13 yds for a TD (Cory Smigel KICK) — AKR win probability +9.7 pts (now 23%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:15: Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 11 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +5.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:08: Dustin Crum run for 9 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +4.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 12:00AKR 4th & 18 at AKR 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snapGo for it5.7%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.9%average punt
- Q1 4:42AKR 4th & 5 at KENT 42, down 7Close callPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.2%42% to convertField goal7.1%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call7.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 13:03AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.1%−0.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.6%average punt
- Q3 9:08AKR 4th & 4 at KENT 13, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.5%46% to convertField goal2.4%−0.185% to makePunt0.5%−1.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 9 of 10AKR made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 12:05KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two94.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:49KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.8%97% to makeGo for two92.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:08AKR Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.3%97% to makeGo for two11.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:56KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.4%97% to makeGo for two90.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:38AKR Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.5%97% to makeGo for two11.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:42KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.8%97% to makeGo for two89.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:58AKR Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.3%97% to makeGo for two15.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:15KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.1%97% to makeGo for two88.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:08KENT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.0%97% to makeGo for two93.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:14KENT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:20KENT Touchdown, up 27 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick100.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:50AKR Touchdown, down 21 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call1.2%−<0.197% to makeGo for two1.2%45% to convert
- Q4 10:00KENT Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:49KENT Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAKRDrive 1INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
KENTDrive 2TD5 plays · 46 yds · 1:1893% → 93%
Q1 13:23
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+16
92.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 16 yds to the Akron 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
92.5%
Zach Gibson sacked by Zayin West for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 32Similar
Q1 12:00
4TH & 18
OWN 30
0
92.6%
Jerry Fitschen punt for 54 yds , Isaac Vance returns for no gain to the KntSt 10 Isaac Vance fumbled, recovered by Akron Bubba Arslanian KENT ST Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4TD4 plays · 10 yds · 0:588% → 9%
Q1 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
91.7%
GIBSON, Zach pass incomplete to DOLLARD, Teon (GAMBLE, Kesean), PENALTY KENTST holding (HINES, Elvis) 5 yards to the KENTST5, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
90.7%
Zach Gibson run for 3 yds Zach Gibson fumbled, forced by Dean Clark, recovered by Akron Xavior Gray for a TD (Cory Smigel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0291% → 92%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
91.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 32 yds to the Akron 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
91.3%
Dustin Crum run for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 49 Dustin Crum fumbled, recovered by KntSt Dustin CrumSimilar
Q1 7:51
3RD & 16
OPP 49
+22
91.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 22 yds to the Akron 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
91.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaac Vance for 5 yds to the Akron 22Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+4
91.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaac Vance for 4 yds to the Akron 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 0:009% → 9%
KENTDrive 7FUMBLE9 plays · 72 yds · 1:3591% → 91%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+22
90.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 22 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-10
91.0%
WILLIAMS, Xav. rush for 7 yards to the AKRON30 (BISCHOF, Brando;ARSLANIAN, Bubb), PENALTY KENTST holding (JOHNSON, Daniel) 10 yards to the AKRON47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+19
90.7%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 19 yds to the Akron 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
91.0%
Bryan Bradford run for 13 yds to the Akron 14 Bryan Bradford fumbled, forced by A.J. Watts, recovered by Akron Randy Cochran Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8TD10 plays · 86 yds · 3:4210% → 15%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
89.8%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Tony Grimes Jr. for 9 yds to the Akron 49Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-10
89.4%
Zach Gibson sacked by Brandon Coleman for a loss of 10 yards to the Akron 39Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 16
OWN 34
+26
90.4%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 26 yds to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
89.4%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Tony Grimes Jr. for 17 yds to the KntSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
89.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 75 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10TD2 plays · 59 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11TD11 plays · 79 yds · 3:5286% → 90%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
86.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 11 yds to the KntSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+10
86.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 10 yds to the KntSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 5
50
+12
87.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 12 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
87.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 15 yds to the Akron 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
87.6%
CRUM, Dustin rush for 14 yards to the AKRON9, out-of-bounds (ARSLANIAN, Bubb), PENALTY KENTST holding (RATLIFF, Elijah) 10 yards to the AKRON33, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12TD11 plays · 64 yds · 4:4412% → 23%
Q2 5:42
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+13
88.3%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Tony Grimes Jr. for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+12
87.7%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Tony Grimes Jr. for 12 yds to the KntSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+15
86.5%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Maverick Wolfley for 15 yds to the KntSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13TD8 plays · 58 yds · 0:3784% → 89%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+24
83.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Luke Floriea for 24 yds to the Akron 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
84.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 6 yds to the Akron 28Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+9
85.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 9 yds to the Akron 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
85.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Luke Floriea for 7 yds to the Akron 12Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+11
88.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 11 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
87.1%
Zach Gibson sacked by Zayin West for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15TD8 plays · 78 yds · 1:4688% → 93%
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+47
88.4%
Dustin Crum run for 38 yds to the KENTST 18 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, Defensive holding (A.J. Watts) to the Akron 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q3 13:03
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-6
92.2%
Zach Gibson sacked by Kesean Gamble for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17TD5 plays · 36 yds · 1:3593% → 98%
Q3 10:49
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+16
93.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 15 yds to the Akron 2 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, illegal use of hands (Chu Ogbonna) to the Akron 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18DOWNS11 plays · 57 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
97.2%
GIBSON, Zach pass incomplete to STEWART, Nate, PENALTY KENTST pass interference (BUTLER, Tony) 10 yards to the KENTST46, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
97.0%
GIBSON, Zach pass incomplete to QUALLS, George, PENALTY KENTST K (HINES, Elvis) 15 yards to the KENTST19, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 4
OPP 13
0
97.1%
Zach Gibson pass incomplete to George Qualls Jr., broken up by Elvis HinesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19TD13 plays · 87 yds · 4:5498% → 100%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
97.9%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Isaiah McKoy, broken up by Jordyn RileySimilar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+3
97.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 3 yds to the KntSt 16Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+19
97.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaac Vance for 19 yds to the KntSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+8
98.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaac Vance for 8 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+22
98.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Reggie Corner Jr.) to the Akron 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
98.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 5 yds to the Akron 11Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
98.9%
CRUM, Dustin rush for 3 yards to the AKRON0, clock 00:26, PENALTY KENTST holding (GREGOIRE, Adam) 10 yards to the AKRON13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Bryan Bradford for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20TD8 plays · 61 yds · 2:230% → 1%
Q4 14:23
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+42
99.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 42 yds to the KntSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:5099% → 100%
AKRDrive 22FUMBLE5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
KENTDrive 23TD8 plays · 27 yds · 4:43100% → 100%
Q4 7:32
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-10
99.9%
Collin Schlee sacked by Julian Richardson for a loss of 10 yards to the Akron 33 KENT ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Javaughn Williams for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24Uncategorized6 plays · 32 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:58
Teon Dollard run for 13 yds for a TD (Cory Smigel KICK)
-9.7
TD · Q2 0:15
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 11 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)
+5.5
TD · Q2 9:38
Teon Dollard run for 59 yds for a TD (Cory Smigel KICK)
-5.2