2020 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2020 · InfoCision Stadium
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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreM-OH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:54 · Kyle Romenick punt for 34 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 8 yds to the MiaOh 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:35: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 61 yds for a TD (Henry Beckett KICK) — M-OH win probability +0.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:10: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 29 yds for a TD (Henry Beckett KICK) — M-OH win probability +9.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:17: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 28 yds for a TD (Henry Beckett KICK) — M-OH win probability +6.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 8:21: Davion Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 20 — M-OH win probability +3.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:38: Zach Gibson pass intercepted for a TD Emmanuel Rugamba return for 62 yds for a TD (Henry Beckett KICK) — M-OH win probability +2.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 6 of 8M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 14:53AKR 4th & 6 at midfield, tiedClose callPunted · 19.3% before the snapGo for it19.3%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:57AKR 4th & 1 at M-OH 49, down 7Close callPunted · 21.5% before the snapGo for it21.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.2%−0.3average punt
- Q1 6:27M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 28, up 7Close callPunted · 78.7% before the snapGo for it78.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:21AKR 4th & 26 at AKR 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snapGo for it20.8%−0.76% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.5%average punt
- Q2 11:42M-OH 4th & 11 at AKR 24, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.2% before the snapGo for it76.6%−0.625% to convertField goalTheir call77.2%68% to makePunt74.4%−2.7average punt
- Q2 11:35AKR 4th & 12 at AKR 33, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snapGo for it19.6%−0.823% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.4%average punt
- Q2 6:10AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 27, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snapGo for it15.2%−0.533% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.7%average punt
- Q3 15:00M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 42, up 24Close callPunted · 92.7% before the snapGo for it93.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.0%−0.1average punt
- Q3 12:54AKR 4th & 17 at M-OH 42, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snapGo for it6.7%−1.215% to convertField goal7.3%−0.630% to makePuntTheir call7.8%average punt
- Q3 8:21M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 48, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snapGo for it95.9%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.2%average punt
- Q3 2:31AKR 4th & 12 at AKR 24, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q4 8:01M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 28, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q4 5:37AKR 4th & 14 at AKR 43, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1M-OH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 9:35M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.8%97% to makeGo for two78.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:10M-OH Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.0%97% to makeGo for two83.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:17M-OH Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.6%97% to makeGo for two90.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:38M-OH Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:37M-OH Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:08AKR Touchdown, down 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAKRDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
22.2%
Zach Gibson sacked by Kameron Butler for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 29Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+17
22.2%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 17 yds to the Akron 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 46
-8
22.2%
Zach Gibson run for a loss of 8 yards to the Akron 46 Zach Gibson fumbled, recovered by Akron Zach GibsonSimilar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+4
22.2%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Shawn Naim for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 14:53
4TH & 6
50
0
22.2%
Kyle Romenick punt for 36 yds , Jalen Walker returns for no gain to the MiaOh 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2TD4 plays · 86 yds · 1:4776% → 77%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+20
23.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 20 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
23.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 4 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+61
23.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 61 yds for a TD (Henry Beckett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 21 yds · 2:3123% → 24%
Q1 9:28
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+9
23.5%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Tony Grimes Jr. for 9 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
24.2%
MyJaden Horton run for no gain to the MiaOh 49 AKRON Penalty, false start ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
23.9%
Kyle Romenick punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jalen Walker at the MiaOh 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
AKRDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
M-OHDrive 6FG10 plays · 44 yds · 4:0776% → 76%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+5
23.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 5 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+23
23.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 23 yds to the Akron 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
23.1%
Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the Akron 21 MIAMI OH Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 21
-16
23.3%
GABBERT, Brett rush for no gain to the AKRON21 (ARSLANIAN, Bubb), PENALTY MIAMI face mask 16 yards to the AKRON37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 24
OPP 37
+13
23.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 13 yds to the Akron 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 12 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 11:35
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+16
22.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Tristian Brank for 16 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+3
22.0%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Teon Dollard for 3 yds to the Akron 38Similar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 12
OWN 33
+20
21.8%
Kyle Romenick punt for 45 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 20 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8TD7 plays · 58 yds · 2:5277% → 86%
Q2 9:02
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+9
23.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Adam Mehelic for 9 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+14
22.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 14 yds to the Akron 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
13.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 29 yds for a TD (Henry Beckett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 6:10
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+10
16.6%
Kyle Romenick punt for 53 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 10 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10TD8 plays · 70 yds · 3:5686% → 93%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
13.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 15 yds to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
13.6%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Julian Richardson for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 41Similar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
7.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 28 yds for a TD (Henry Beckett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11END OF HALF3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
M-OHDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
AKRDrive 13PUNT11 plays · 29 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-9
7.6%
Zach Gibson sacked by Cecil Singleton for a loss of 9 yards to the Akron 20Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 19
OWN 20
+10
7.3%
GIBSON, Zach sacked for loss of 1 yard to the AKRON19 (BUTLER, Kam), PENALTY MIAMI holding 10 yards to the AKRON30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+12
7.5%
Zach Gibson pass complete to George Qualls Jr. for 12 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
7.9%
GIBSON, Zach pass incomplete to QUALLS, George, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference 13 yards to the MIAMI45, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
8.3%
Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Teon Dollard, broken up by Kameron ButlerSimilar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+7
8.2%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Julian Hicks for 7 yds to the MiaOh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
8.7%
Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Michael Mathison, broken up by Austin ErtlSimilar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-8
8.7%
Zach Gibson sacked by Ben Kimpler and Kameron Butler for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 17
OPP 42
+8
7.8%
Kyle Romenick punt for 34 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 8 yds to the MiaOh 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
AKRDrive 15INT TD7 plays · 30 yds · 2:464% → 2%
Q3 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+18
4.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to George Qualls Jr. for 18 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
4.2%
Zach Gibson sacked by Ryan McWood for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 28Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+15
4.1%
GIBSON, Zach pass complete to MATHISON, Micha for loss of 2 yards to the AKRON26 (SINGLETON, C.), PENALTY MIAMI roughing passer 15 yards to the AKRON43, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
4.4%
Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Nate Stewart, broken up by Sterling WeatherfordSimilar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-62
1.7%
Zach Gibson pass intercepted for a TD Emmanuel Rugamba return for 62 yds for a TD (Henry Beckett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 2:31
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+3
1.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 3 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-6
1.5%
Zach Gibson sacked by Ben Kimpler for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 24Similar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 12
OWN 24
+12
1.5%
Kyle Romenick punt for 58 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 12 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17TD10 plays · 70 yds · 3:4199% → 100%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+16
0.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+18
0.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 18 yds to the Akron 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+22
0.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 22 yds to the Akron 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 14
OPP 15
+15
0.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 15 yds for a TD (Henry Beckett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18TD10 plays · 74 yds · 3:240% → 0%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
0.3%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Tristian Brank for 5 yds to the Akron 31Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+17
0.2%
Teon Dollard run for 2 yds to the Akron 33 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Akron 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
0.3%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Shawn Naim for 12 yds to the MiaOh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
0.3%
GIBSON, Zach pass incomplete to NAIM, Shawn, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference 13 yards to the MIAMI10, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
0.4%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Teon Dollard for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 11Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
0.3%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 11 yds for a TD (Cory Smigel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:37
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+7
0.2%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Teon Dollard for 7 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
0.2%
Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Nate Stewart, broken up by John Saunders Jr.Similar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 7
50
-7
0.2%
Zach Gibson sacked by Matthew Salopek for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21END OF GAME3 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:10
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 29 yds for a TD (Henry Beckett KICK)
-9.2
TD · Q2 1:17
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 28 yds for a TD (Henry Beckett KICK)
-6.4
KEY PLAY · Q3 8:21
Davion Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 20
-3.6