Wagner
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2021
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Wagner allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Wagner.
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Wagner's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.00 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at TEMQ2 2:42 4th & 2 at WAG 33, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at TEMQ4 11:13 4th & 16 at TEM 39, down 27Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.1 pts
- at BUFQ4 10:46 4th & 2 at WAG 31, down 62Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (19)
- Q1 12:544th & 9 at WAG 11, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 7:444th & 20 at WAG 27, down 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 12:224th & 5 at BUF 40, down 21 · Went for itAgreed
- Q3 12:494th & 9 at WAG 45, down 38 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 0:014th & 8 at WAG 21, down 59 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 10:464th & 2 at WAG 31, down 62 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 4:534th & 4 at WAG 31, down 62 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 13:274th & 1 at WAG 49, tied · Went for itAgreed
- Q1 13:274th & 1 at WAG 29, tied · Went for itAgreed
- Q1 3:034th & 14 at WAG 43, up 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 9:444th & 16 at WAG 13, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 2:424th & 2 at WAG 33, down 10 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 0:384th & 6 at WAG 24, down 10 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 9:544th & 4 at WAG 31, down 13 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 6:094th & 11 at WAG 24, down 20 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 1:054th & 11 at TEM 47, down 27 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 11:134th & 16 at TEM 39, down 27 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 4:234th & 10 at WAG 30, down 34 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 0:364th & 5 at WAG 23, down 34 · PuntedAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2021
Expected wins adds up Wagner's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2021
Every game starts at Wagner's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.05
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.03
Game by game
- BUFL 7-69 at BUF1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
- TEML 7-41 at TEM2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −3
Points of win probability, from Wagner's side.
Season arc, 2021
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Wagner's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2021
The largest single-play change in Wagner's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Wagner's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Wagner's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Wagner's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Wagner's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.