Wagner
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Season arc, 2014
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Wagner's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2014
The largest single-play change in Wagner's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Wagner's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Wagner's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Wagner's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Wagner's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.